Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 231804 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 204 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS ENTERING NWRN PA AND THE CLOUDS LOOK TO BE THINNING OVERALL AS DRIER AIR BEGINS MIXING DOWN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. EXPECT SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE WEST WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH MOVING IN. WHILE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE FROSTY LEVELS IN OUR COUNTIES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. OVERALL LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THE SEASON...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED GUSTY WIND...A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB. DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW. LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE SLOWEST. THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE

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