Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281941 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 341 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SNOW AND LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... MID AND UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PENN... AND SLOWLY SETTLING TO THE SOUTHEAST...ACCOMPANIED BY A DISTINCT POCKET OF STEEP 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7 TO 7.5C/KM. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES AND SCATTERED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD BRIEFLY COAT THE GROUND. TODAY WILL GO DOWN IN THE BOOKS AS THE COLDEST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNTIL LATER NEXT FALL OR EARLY WINTER. TEMPS AT 18Z ARE NEAR THEIR FCST HIGHS OF OF AROUND 20 ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AND LOWER 30S IN THE SE. THE NW WIND AVERAGING 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN THE LAST DAYS OF MARCH. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR IN MANY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS EVENING /EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE NRN MTNS...WHERE SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 04Z SUN/...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE NORTH TO AROUND 20 OVER THE SOUTH. THE OTHER EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WRN POCONOS...WHERE THE 17Z RAP INDICATES A TONGUE OF HIGHER LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES NOSING IN FROM THE SE /ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER/ AND 925-850 MB FGEN FORMING THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP IN MORE CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT COATING SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCHUYLKILL CTY. IF WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM...SOME READINGS NEAR ZERO COULD HAPPEN OVER THE FAR NORTH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE /OVER LOWER MICH ATTM/ DRIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEG F ACROSS THE WRN MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND AFTER THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...ALTHOUGH NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN TODAY...WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAKDOWN THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR BROING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BOUT OF THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR CHILLY POST FRONTAL STRATOCU AND MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS IS FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN INTERESTING LOOKING SURFACE LOW THAT THEY TAKE SE THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PA ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON. THE 850 0C LINE WILL BISECT THE STATE BUT EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT OF THE APRIL SUN ANGLE. BY MIDWEEK...WE SHOULD SEE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AS THE MAIN TROUGH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN DROPS SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY WEEKS END.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR TO OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PENN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN THROUGH 21Z. MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INVOF KJST. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THROUGH SUNSET...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER A MORE TRANQUIL AND NOTICEABLY MILDER DAY SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER AND PRECEDING...FEW- HOUR SHOT OF MDTLY STG WAA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 1 INCH WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NWRN PENN COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES BY 12Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR. MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THUR AFTERNOON NIGHT...A GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI AVIATION...LAMBERT

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