Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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764 FXUS61 KCTP 261837 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 237 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will remain nearly stationary just south of the Commonwealth through Wednesday. High pressure will continue through mid week with warm and dry conditions. An area of low pressure approaching from the west is likely to lift through the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The weak cold front south of the Mason Dixon line is acting to focus some clouds over southern Pa and even a few light showers just south of the border. RAP meso anal shows CAPEs in excess of 1000J over the border counties, however drier air filtering slowly southward has led to a decease in dewpoints as well as the overall CAPE as well. Warm-dry air aloft should help and keep showers out of the bulk of the region today into the evening. The HRRR wants to sneak some remnant midwestern convection into my far swrn zones just after sundown, but confidence is not high for this and I have very low POPs as a result. The overnight will be fair and dry with comfortable humidity over most of the area. Dewpoints will hang in the mid 60s along the Md border where a stray shower still be possible. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... Rich deep layer moisture will remain pooled south of the Mason Dixon through Wednesday, providing dry conditions overall. Clouds will be most prevalent across the south, closest to the front and once again, a stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out right along the border, especially in the afternoon. Highs Wednesday will be a few ticks higher than Today across the north and generally unchanged south...and will range from the mid 80s north to the lower 90s southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... In the extended the heat continues through midweek...then a cooling trend to near normal highs looks likely for a few days as several fronts linger over the area and the core of hot temperatures shifts west. The upper ridge across the Southern U.S. is forecast to retrogress into the Southwestern U.S. by late in the week allowing northern stream energy to produce a weak, but persistent troffing across the northeast states. Cold front currently crossing the region is forecast to stall just south of the PA/MD border. A wave is forecast to form on the front supported by the developing upper trof, moving east through the Ohio Valley Friday and crossing PA on Saturday into Sunday. This looks to bring a prolonged period of unsettled with weather with showery conds across the state. The cloudiness will further support cooler high temperatures than recent days. Low temperatures during this period look to be several degrees above normal, especially across southern sections of the state. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... All terminals are VFR and will continue into the overnight before more patchy fog forms late night into the early hours of Wednesday. Any areas of late night fog will lift and dissipate within an hour or so of sunrise. Southern areas may see a stray shower or thunderstorm pop up in the afternoon Wednesday. OUTLOOK... THU-SUN...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte

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