Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170054 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 754 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the state through Friday. A frontal system will move into the area Saturday with much colder and blustery conditions following it for the end of the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Scattered light rain and snow showers continue to decrease this evening across central and western portions of central PA, but gusty west- northwest winds will persist through the late evening hours in the wake of the cold front that moved across the state today. Model guidance support wind gusts between 25-35kts across the area through sunset, then diminishing slightly overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Friday will be fair and uneventful as we get a break between frontal systems. Highs will be a tick or two cooler than today with a diminishing wind as high pressure moves over the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next impactful weather system will be a storm system that will move through the eastern Great Lakes Saturday. A warm front-cold front combination will bring a period of rain to the area that will be moving in from the west by sunrise Saturday, progressively spreading eastward across the region during the day. QPF into Sat night will be around an inch over the NW mountains tapering to 0.25-0.50 over the SE. The associated cold front is made to pass through the state Saturday evening and overnight, ushering in a shot of cold air and setting the stage for an early season bout with lake effect snow showers for Sunday and Monday. The usual snowbelt areas of NW Warren county into northern McKean County will be the most likely so see several inches of snow, with lesser accums even down into the Laurels. High pressure moving to our south will influence the weather to start Thanksgiving week, bringing a couple of cool-dry days. Temperatures will begin to modify Tuesday with a SW flow expected to develop. Though jet stream will remain north of the region, a quick moving trough will brush the region on Wed followed by a weak shortwave Wed night, which will bring chance for light snow showers back into the NW along with a return of slightly cooler air. GFS hangs on to this trough into Thanksgiving weekend, while the ECMWF brings a flatter 500mb flow pattern. So forecast confidence remains on the low side in the 7-10 day range. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR/IFR conditions will persist at KBFD/KJST through tonight with periods of snow showers. Soundings suggest pockets of light fzdz are possible later tonight but will not mention in TAFs. KAOO/KUNV may see some MVFR cigs at times but VFR will be the dominate flight category. Downsloping winds will maintain VFR flying across the eastern 1/2 of the airspace over most of ZNY sector. Surface winds from 280-310 degrees gusting 20-25KT early will subside into Friday morning. Expect low clouds to gradually break on Friday with return to widespread VFR by the afternoon. Outlook... Sat...Widespread showers. LLWS possible. Transition to snow showers behind strong cold front late Saturday night with MVFR/IFR likely western 1/3. Sun...MVFR/IFR in snow showers NW. MVFR to low VFR cigs and ocnl rain/snow showers central and east. Gusty winds 25-30kts from 280-310 degrees. Mon...MVFR cigs/sct -shsn psbl early NW 1/4; otherwise VFR. Tue...Breezy. Mainly VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gartner NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Gartner SHORT TERM...La Corte/Gartner LONG TERM...La Corte/RXR AVIATION...Steinbugl

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