Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241917 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE DATE. STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS. PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY. AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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TUES AFTN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID. WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL PASSAGE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA. JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE. OUTLOOK... MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF 30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL. TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN AVIATION...LAMBERT

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