Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220225 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1025 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...AND OCCASIONALLY MDT TO HVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LINGERING...FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR SFC BASED CAPE WITHIN A POCKET OF STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS SCENT PENN EARLY TONIGHT. 3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER 0.10 ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY NEAR...AND TO THE SE OF INTERSTATE 81. SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOISTUPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD IS WARM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH. WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND FOR MID-LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM AROUND JST EAST TO NEAR LANCASTER. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN ALL TERMINALS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE

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