Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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077 FXUS61 KCTP 291756 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 156 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AFTER A VERY DRY APRIL...WE HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A WET PATTERN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS US SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DEEP MOISTURE...AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE AREA...APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER LAKES. OVERALL QPF WILL REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL NOT FALL MORE THAN 3-6 DEGREES OFF TODAY`S HIGHS. SO WHILE WE WILL END UP SOME 10-15 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE VERY NEAR NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
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FOR SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN BASICALLY PRECIPITATION FREE OVER MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY...BUT I`M NOT OPTIMISTIC FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT SKYCOVER-WISE. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH NO RAIN...WE SHOULD MANAGE TO BE ABOUT 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY ON AVERAGE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE SAT...WITH A STEADY...SOAKING RAIN DEVELOPING FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NOSE OF A 2-3 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ AND AREA OF STRONG...NEARLY 4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN PENN. PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MESO SCALE LIFT VARIES A BIT FROM MODEL-MODEL AND ACROSS VARIOUS EFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AOA 0.50 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS EFS PLUMES INDICATE THAT OVER 0.60 IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A 1010MB WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN STAYS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT FOR SAT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXTREME SOUTHERN PENN COULD NOSE INTO THE L-M 60S SUNDAY AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT MOVES VERY CLOSE TO, OR NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. OUTLOOK... MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. TUE...NO SIG WX. WED...MVFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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