Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241536 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1136 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. A MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND COLD AIR STRATO CU ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING NOR`EASTER EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY...HAVE ERODED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING WAS HELPING TO CREATE AN AREA OF BKN CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PENN ABOVE A SURFACE RIDGE AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN /ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY/ WAS AN AREA OF SUNNY SKIES. INCREASING /THOUGH MAINLY THIN/ HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WEST TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH /GUSTING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE/ WILL GRADUALLY BACK BY ABOUT 30-45 DEG THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 5-7F ABOVE NORMAL /OR IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MTNS AND 6-65F THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SLACKENS THE WIND. THE MINOR WORRY FOR TONIGHT IS THAT TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST IN THE CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE N/W OF IPT/UNV/AOO. STILL...THE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL WITH U30S A GOOD BET AND M30S NOT SO PROBABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING AOA THE M30S. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY TO TAILGATE...ALL DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F AND 65F AS 8H TEMPS WILL BE HANGING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL IN THE NW...BUT ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AND GET GUSTY AT AND JUST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT OFF THE GROUND. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE 20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG- WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ERODED THE PREVIOUS LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS. AN AREA OF BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS PENN LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. OUTLOOK... SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...DANGELO AVIATION...LAMBERT

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