Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 032223 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 623 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PA MTNS. THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PERSIST TIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MOST LOCATIONS HOWEVER...WILL NOT SEE ANY PCPN. THE DEEP- LAYER FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. HOWEVER SUB-SVR WATER- LOADING-RELATED WIND GUSTS UNDER 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED/MINOR DAMAGE. NOCTURNAL BLYR STABILIZATION SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING STORMS LKLY DISSIPATING INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE AND TIME OF YEAR MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE WEEKEND. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN AS WEAKER S/WV IMPULSES DRIFT SEWD WITHIN SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MSTR AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THIS AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SRN PA PER MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS TO DISSIPATE THRU FRI EVE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PIVOT TO A NNW/SSE ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY WHILE BEING SHUNTED SWWD...AS A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM ERN QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. RISK AREA FOR STORMS ON DAY 3 SHOULD BE POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL OFF A BIT WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NOT MUCH TO CHANGE IN A SLOWLY EVOLVING EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER SUNDAY-MONDAY. LEAD COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND POTENTIAL ONSHORE FLOW MSTR MAY IMPACT THE FCST BY TUESDAY WITH SCT TSTMS POSS...BUT A CONSENSUS SOLUTION HOLDS BACK HIGHER POPS UNTIL WED OR MAYBE EVEN THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. SO TIMING DIFFS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN. THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SHUFFLING OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALLOWING EWD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND RECENT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT HOT/DRY SPELL. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE PCPN PATTERN SEEMS PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NEW FLOW REGIME. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WHILE TENDING TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. GENERALLY VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT AT TERMINALS WHERE A STRAY STORM COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDS LIKELY AT KBFD AND POSSIBLE AT KIPT. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. SAT - TUE...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD/KIPT.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARTNER NEAR TERM...GARTNER SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

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