Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200245 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1045 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS SPREADING ESE ACROSS THE STATE WELL AHEAD OF A SFC WARM FRONT...LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE/S 300 MB RH SHOWS THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CURB THE TEMP DROP BY AT LEAST A FEW DEG F LATER TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AREAS OF FROST FROM FORMING VERY EARLY MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. NORTHERN PA MAY SEE SOME FROST /AND POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS THE NRN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD SHIFTS SOUTH TWD I-80 AFTER 09Z/. HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SW ZONES WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE THICKEST AND LAST THE LONGEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA. EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST THRU DUSK. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS /ESP W MTNS/ EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028- 034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN LONG TERM...DANGELO AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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