Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 201900 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 300 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN`T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO 0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES. CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY. A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS RETURN TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... MON...NO SIG WX. TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. THU...VFR FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR LONG TERM...GRUMM AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR

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