Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261016 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 616 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF E COAST RIDGE IS TRANSPORTING GULF OF MEX MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN EARLY THIS MORNING. SAT-DERIVED PWATS NR 1.7 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN PA AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR AT 09Z SHOWING SCT SHRA DEVELOPING IN THIS MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF A MID LVL VORT MAX LIFTING NE OUT OF SOUTHERN OHIO. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...WILL CARRY CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KJST/KUNV/KIPT...THE AM HRS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE LATER THIS MORNING...LG SCALE FORCING BECOMES VERY WEAK. HOWEVER...HEATING OF MOIST AIR MASS WITH PWATS 2-3SD ABV CLIMO SHOULD YIELD SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. BEST CHC WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE 50 PCT POPS PAINTED. EARLY CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW SHOULD RESULT IN LESS INSTABILITY AND A DIMINISHED CHC OF CONVECTION UP THERE. ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MEAN SREF/GEFS CAPES TOP OUT NR OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG THIS AFTN AND SHEAR NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. THUS...SPC OUTLOOK KEEPS THE MRGL RISK WEST OF OUR CWA. EARLY AM IR LOOP SUGGESTS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL DAWN MSUNNY TODAY. HOWEVER...A GOOD DEAL OF CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY BASED ON MDL SOUNDINGS. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...WITH MAXES FROM THE U70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE M80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY FEATURE WARM AND TRANQUIL CONDS. HIGH PWAT AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MID SUMMER MIN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE M/U60S MOST PLACES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL INTRODUCE A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY. MDL TIMING OF THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE W COUNTIES...WITH A GREATER RISK OF PM TSRA ACROSS EASTERN PA. GEFS MEAN CAPES PEAK ARND 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES WED AFTN. HOWEVER...MID LVL WINDS AND ASSOC DEEP LYR SHEAR NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN MDL DATA...SO SVR WX THREAT JUST MRGL. MCLDY SKIES WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT CONSALL STILL SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS BTWN THE M70S-L80S...SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRES AT SFC AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE EAST COAST SHOULD KEEP WARM/HUMID AIR OVR CENTRAL PA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE IMPLIES DRIER WX /ESP NORTHERN PA/...AS LOWER PWAT AIR MASS WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA IN ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES WORKING ACROSS S ONTARIO INTO N NEW ENG. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE SUMMERLIKE WARMTH/HUMIDITY BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THAT A PERIOD OF RAINY WX COULD FOLLOW LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDES EASTWARD ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY SOUTH OF PA. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A SW TO NE LINE FROM NEAR KJST TO NORTH OF KIPT. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO LOWERED CIGS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THAT REGION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR 12Z ISSUANCE. A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS. SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD FROPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL

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