Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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122 FXUS61 KCTP 240937 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 537 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of wet weather with cooler-than-average temperatures will dampen the area for the second half of the week. Widespread rain is expected late tonight into Thursday, followed by shower spells Thursday afternoon into Friday. Temperatures should rebound modestly over the Memorial Day holiday weekend with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Light rain associated with weak mid level wave should come to an end in the LSV around 12z based on HIRES model consensus. The latest near term HIRES model and ensemble guidance indicates most of the area stays dry today as pcpn activity focuses to the south/west across the OH Valley and Central Appalachians. Max 12hr POPs ending 25/00z are over the southwest 1/4 of the CWA or in the Laurel Highlands late this afternoon/early evening. Models remain consistent in bringing widespread rain over the area tonight into early Thursday morning and have increased POPs to near 100 percent for the entire CWA. Strong H85 moisture flux anomalies and southeast low level jet combined with increasing large scale forcing/ascent associated with amplifying upper trough suggests some moderate to locally heavy rain amounts (0.75 to 1 inch) are possible tonight with peak rain intensity likely in the 06-12z Thursday period. The southeast low level flow should enhance UVVS in the eastern upslope side of the terrain where some local 1" pcpn maxes will be possible. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The strong upper trough will pivot over the northern Mid Atlantic states on Thursday, with low pressure at the surface consolidating over PA Thursday night before lifting up the NJ/New England coast Friday. Steadier rain Thursday morning should lift north of the area with partial sunshine leading to shower spells and perhaps a few T`storms in the afternoon. Broad cyclonic/northwest flow with additional shortwaves rotating around the departing upper low will keep showers in the fcst on Friday before precip winds down Friday night/AM Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A lower-amplitude mid level flow pattern will develop into the weekend with some ridging likely at 500mb. Uncertainty regarding location and timing of shortwave impulses rounding the ridge and effect of prior upstream convection leaves plenty of question marks for Saturday - but there is more agreement in area of max POPs over S OH/into WV and SW PA in the afternoon. NBM/ECE blend yielded the highest POPs for Sunday across Central PA associated with cold front moving south/eastward across the Great Lakes/Appalachians. A severe risk may accompany the cold front but still to early for details. The large scale pattern evolves into a broadly cyclonic regime into early next week around an upper low between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay. This should keep the pattern unsettled with continued threat for showers/Tstorms through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Minor adjustments made to the 09Z TAFS. Some showers across the southeast this morning. CIGS still VFR across the southeast, but 4-5SM with the showers. Few drops of rain near BFD. CIG at JST low now. Expect conditions to improve by mid to late morning. Overall it should be a dry day with VFR conditions. Next system will result in more rain. Rain will overspread the area this evening from the west. Poor conditions will linger at least Thursday, if not early Friday. .OUTLOOK... Thu...Rain/low cigs likely through at least midday. Fri...Showers/MVFR cigs NW. Mainly VFR SE. Sat...No sig wx expected. Sun...Reduced conditions with scattered showers.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...RXR/Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.