Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260342 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1142 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A long wave trough over the the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will keep it slightly cooler than normal through the first part of the week. Widely scattered showers may still pop up each afternoon through Tuesday, mainly across the northern third to half of the state. A warm up and return of higher humidity will occur mid to late week. Several chances for showers and thunderstorms are in store for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Only isolated showers expected overnight as sfc convergence weakens with loss of daytime heating. Cold front will push east overnight again supporting only an isolated shower or two. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Monday looks very similar to the weekend with an afternoon shra/tsra passing quickly across the nrn tier. Temps a little cooler aloft and heights a little lower Mon than today, so there could be more shra/tsra coverage on Mon. Have kept the POPs in the likely category in the NC mtns and mention shra as far S as the turnpike. Max temps will probably be a few degs F cooler than Sun with 8H temps about 2C cooler in mid-aftn. Deep mixing and June sun should still push us back into the m-u60s N and m70s S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Seasonably strong large scale upper trough will slide overhead Mon night into Tue, accompanied by a dying front that will erode as it moves into area of surface high pressure centered over Virginia.This will provide a limited/mainly diurnal opportunity for widely scattered showers/isolated low-topped thunderstorms on Tuesday, especially across northern portions of CWA. However, much of the this period will be pleasant and dry with below normal PW supporting low humidity and below normal temperatures relative to late June climatology. The trough will lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by the middle of the week bringing cooler and dry weather, followed by a resurgence of the Southeast U.S. upper ridge for late week. A trough developing over the upper Midwest will bring increasing southerly flow ahead of its attendant frontal system and will result in an upward/warmer trend in temperatures and low level moisture/humidity starting Thursday. Expect max/min temps to rise above normal levels for the weekend along with an increase in convective activity - especially over NW half of CWA. Convection will be more scattered over the SE. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak cold front is producing some widely scattered showers across Central Pennsylvania at 00z. Boundary extends generally from Wellsboro to State College to Somerset, but again, coverage of showers is very isolated. Gusty winds continue across many airfields. Have lowered winds to below 10 knots after 02z in most locations. While no widespread fog expected overnight, have included mention of fog at KBFD due to the TSRA that moved through last hour, effectively moistening up the low levels. Generally VFR tomorrow, with winds picking up by late morning or early afternoon. Showers will also develop tomorrow, again mainly across the north. Only at KBFD have I included categorical SHRA during the mid/late day hours, as coverage elsewhere too low to mention at this time. .OUTLOOK... Tue...Mainly VFR, but scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA north. Wed...VFR. Thu-Fri...Mainly VFR, but isolated/scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA. && .EQUIPMENT... KCCX radar has been brought back on line temporarily (as of Sunday afternoon), but further outages are expected through at least Monday evening. This outage is allowing the technicians to install the first of 4 major service-life extension upgrades. The work on the radar has been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to operations. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gartner NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Gartner SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Jung EQUIPMENT...

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