Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 160059 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 859 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID WEST...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... RADAR SHOWS PRECIP CONTINUING TO STREAM NNE...AFFECTING MAINLY MY SERN ZONES. ASOS REPORTS SHOW RAIN FALLING...BUT PUBLIC REPORTS INDICATE THAT SOME SLEET AND WET SNOW IS MIXING IN. OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WE ARE SEEING MOSTLY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SHORT RANGE MESO-MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW STRAY FLURRIES REMAINING BY 9 OR 10PM. WHILE THERE COULD BE A SLUSHY COATING OVER THE RIDGES...MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH ALL AREAS BEING BELOW FREEZING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY REMAINING PUDDLES OR WET PAVEMENT COULD FREEZE UP AND CAUSE LOCALIZED SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE NW WIND AND GUSTS WILL PEAK EARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS IN COMBINATION WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT 04-06Z. CLOUDS WILL OF COURSE LINGER OFF LAKE ERIE AND OVER THE NRN MTS EARLY TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS EARLY WED ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE NEAR...OR EVEN SEVERAL DEG F BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. SEE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFIC RECORDS AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLEARING AND SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE 20S. EVEN THE SE WILL GET INT THE M20S - EVEN WITH A 10-15KT NWRLY WIND THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES WHICH HAVE JUST PASSED THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN DATE OF LAST SPRING FREEZE...AND A FREEZE WATCH WAS RECENTLY POSTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAME SE ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A MAINLY SUNNY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS AVERAGE MINUS 8-12...MAXS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND UPPER 40S IN THE SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STG RIDGING WILL EXTEND SWWD ALONG/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM STG HP CELL CENTERED OVER MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AGAIN WED NGT INTO AM THURS...AND THEREFORE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO +3-4SD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE EASTERLY MARITIME LLVL FLOW WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN/DZ POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE SERN ZONES. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI-SAT WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS IDEA BUT TIMING DIFFS MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE REAMPLIFYING UPSTREAM...WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED ALONG THE WEST COAST...SLIGHTLY ABOVE- AVG 500MB RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS AND TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE NERN CONUS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN PATTERN DUE THE COMPLEXITY OF THE LW FLOW...WITH SEVERAL LOW-MEDIUM CHC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN IN THE OUTER PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS -10 TO -15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MILDER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW READINGS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LKLY STILL AVG BELOW LATE APRIL CLIMO. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS CENTRAL PA...SNOW BANDS IN ITS WAKE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. MVFR CIGS ADN VSBYS FROM SNOW SHOWERS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. BFD HAS LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTERMITTENLY THROUGH 03Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AT THE LATEST. WED THRU FRI SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY SAT. OUTLOOK... .WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR. .SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN /AND POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/. .SUN...MAINLY VFR UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. && .CLIMATE... MORNING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WILL CHALLENGE RECORD LOWS. BELOW ARE SELECTED RECORDS FROM AROUND THE AREA. AOO... WEDNESDAY 24/1950/... THURSDAY 23/1980/ BFD... WEDNESDAY 18/1980/... THURSDAY 16/1983/ IPT... WEDNESDAY 20/1943/... THURSDAY 25/1904/ MDT... WEDNESDAY 25/1943/... THURSDAY 29/1980/ && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-063>066. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU CLIMATE...

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