Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 230840 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 440 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS FUNNELING FROM MASSACHUSETTS SWRD TOWARD NE PA ALONG AXIS OF LL JET. RADAR AT 08Z SHOWING JUST A FEW -SHRA REACHING THE POCONO MTNS FROM SULLIVAN TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. THIS AREA REMAINS THE MOST VULNERABLE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL -SHRA TODAY...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO RETREATING UPPER LOW. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH THE BEST CHC OF -SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING OVR SULLIVAN/COLUMBIA/SCHUYLKILL COS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE...AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL IN THE EAST. ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END TONIGHT...AS COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH. ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS. THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS. LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST. THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST. SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.