Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281836 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 236 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will move along the Mason-Dixon line through tonight...bringing showers to central PA and isolated thunderstorms to southeastern sections today. High pressure will build down out of southern Canada and bring cooler and drier weather for Wednesday and Thursday. A new storm system will approach for the end of this week with the potential for more inclement weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Still some areas of light rain over eastern areas and drizzle with low clouds in central areas. But the main energy has moved off to our east. GOES-16 shows all the cold cloud tops to our east and cold conveyor lifting into NY. A lot of dry air in western PA and the upper level low to our south. So most of the significant rain is over. Gradual improvement later this afternoon and evening. Best POPS now in the eastern areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The rain threat should mostly be off to our east by 8-10 PM. Improving conditions as the strong anticyclone to our northwest slides slowly over the area. Should be near seasonal day with mostly sunny skies and little chance of QPF. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The dry air and high pressure are in all of the most recent guidance, implying Wed ngt and Thursday will remain dry and pleasant. High pressure, dry air, and normal to slightly below normal 850 hPa and 925 hPa temperatures imply near normal daytime highs. Most of the 26/00-06Z U.S. and int`l model guidance (and EFS) indicates more of southern...shearing storm track for late in the week...thanks to a stronger and more wwd position of a deep nrn stream vortex across the Canadian Maritimes. The trend of the big model discrepancy for late this week and this weekend (between the GFS and EC over the past several days) has trended toward the GFS and its ENS members with southern stream energy and its moisture being prevented from amplifying with an associated storm track to our west. Rather, what we see is a shift of the primary southern stream sfc low track to our south as the potent midweek southern stream sfc/upper low (that will be trying to take the turn northeast across the Mid Miss Valley twd the Great Lakes) encounters great resistance from the notably stronger WNW upper jet core defining the northern stream that will be situated from the Upper Glakes to the Mid Atl Coast. With this type of consensus storm track, pops will be somewhat less for Friday and Saturday (compared to a heavily weighted EC/ECENS solution) and limited to mainly the southern half of PA where some rain (or even an elevation-dependent rain/wet snow mix) with expansive cooler and drier air north of PA. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Considerable areas of MVFR and IFR remain this afternoon, however latest satellite image shower the sfc low moving eastward. The rain, mist and fog should persist through this afternoon though clearing has already begun at AOO. Upslope flow will keep JST in IFR cigs and vsbys but west to East expect cigs and vsbys to improve between 21Z to 00Z. MVFR could persist until around 03Z, especially at BFD. The trend for improvement will continue overnight with fair weather and VFR conditions tomorrow. Outlook... Wed...early A.M. restrictions; becoming VFR. Thu...VFR/No sig wx. Thu Night-Fri...Sub-VFR restrictions/rain likely. Sat...Gradually improving conditions.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Grumm SHORT TERM...Grumm LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Grumm/Ceru

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