Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 211718 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 118 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring a warm and increasingly humid southerly flow to the region into Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Turn around bright eyes to see the partial eclipse of the sun. But use special glasses or a box. Do not look directly at the sun. Radar shows high clouds over central PA due to thunderstorms to the west. Anvil tops are obscuring the sky in central areas. GOES-16 shows cloud streets in the northwest and southeast. Many should have good viewing in scattered to broken clouds. Warm afternoon and scattered showers and thunderstorms about. Chance rain diminishes in evening with areas patchy fog and humid.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
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Warm humid day Tuesday. Some issues with the timing of the showers in CAM verse none convective allowing models. Most guidance suggest rain likely and some strong to severe storms possible in the late afternoon/evening. Timing in some CAMS implies earlier convection than non- convective models. The front should bring in much cooler weather Tuesday night. But ahead of it Tuesday will be a warm humid day with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... After our surge of heat and humidity, the strong front will bring a noticeably cooler and drier airmass to the region starting midweek and lasting through the end of the week into the weekend. Interesting to note that the deterministic models show 850 temps as cold as 2-3C just north of the Canadian border behind the cold front, a reminder the change in seasons is not all that far away. Chilliest readings look to be the mornings of Fri/Sat/Sun with high centered overhead, dipping lows into the 40s over the Northern Mountains (and deeper valleys of the Central Mountains) and solidly into the 50s elsewhere. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Some low clouds still burning off in the southeast. A few showers popping up to our west. First shower of the day in Huntingdon County fizzled. Models suggest we should see showers and storms scattered about this afternoon. Most CAM guidance says after 18Z we should see evolving showers and storms. Warm overnight with patchy fog possible. .OUTLOOK... Tue...Patchy AM fog poss. Late day/evening tsra impacts poss. Wed...Early AM low cigs poss BFD/JST. Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Grumm SHORT TERM...Grumm/La Corte LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Grumm/Martin

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