Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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999 FXUS61 KCTP 232343 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 743 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Pennsylvania will be on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge into next week. A series of weakening cold fronts will bring the mention of isolated mainly afternoon or evening showers or thunderstorms, but most of the time it will be fair, very warm and humid but rain free. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 645 PM, storms are now south of PA. Activity near PIT will likely just miss our area. Updated the grids. New zones will go out at 715 PM. Earlier discussion below. Directional shear and high DCAPE has resulted in isolated severe storms just south and east of Harrisburg this aft. Updated grids and zones sent. VILs of 70 plus, resulted in wind damage, and large hail. Strong west to southwest wind at THV, and a south wind at LNS, acted on high dewpoints to quickly fire storms betweeen 4 and 5 PM. Expect activity to weaken here shortly, given lower sun angle, and warm temperatures aloft. Temperatures topped out in the mid to upper 90s in spots today. Previous discussion below. A weak cold front pretty much bisects the state east to west with lower dewpoints from about State College northward. Models show this slightly drier air settling south through late day before the front pretty much becomes indistinguishable. I still have the smallest of chances for a pop up storm along the Pa-Md border but the mid levels are still quite warm so confidence is low. Just another hot dry day in a recent string of hot dry days. Weak high pressure will settle over the area overnight. Other than another night of patchy late night fog, it will be fair and mild with lows mainly in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Sunday will feature abundant sunshine for most of the day...along with very warm to hot temps. 850 mb temps will be very similar to today`s readings leading to highs once again well up into the 80s to low/mid 90s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Big story in the extended fcst is the expected heat wave lasting into early in the upcoming week, as the axis of the subtropical ridge briefly shifts from the plains to the northeast conus. Anomalous upper lvl ridging building over PA should bring hot and mainly dry wx this weekend, as warm temps aloft suppress convection. Next chance of shra/tsra for most of the area comes Monday ahead of shortwave working across the Great Lakes. However, any rainfall Monday is likely to do little to stem the dry pattern we have been in. Heat indices around 100F appear possible by Monday across the Susq Valley, as higher dewpoints are advected into the area ahead of potential convection. Overnight lows are also a concern as the area doesn`t cool off at night through the weekend with Southern PA lows in the 70s with highest readings Monday morning. Some modest cooling appears likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind weak cold front. However, temps still likely to remain somewhat abv normal within a generally zonal flow. Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts areawide as another cool front progged to move through. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread VFR conditions across the region this evening. Expect some fog development over western and central airfields overnight. Eastern airfields should remain vfr overnight. A few more hours of gusty west winds will diminish rapidly around or shortly after sunset. Sunday shaping up to be a VFR day...with a nearly cloudless sky expected. Winds should be lighter with the surface ridge overhead. OUTLOOK... MON...Scattered restrictions possible with a cold front bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. TUE-WED...No sig wx. THU...Mainly VFR...but with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. && .CLIMATE... High in MDT so far is 98 degrees. Record for this date is 103 degrees in 1991. High in IPT so far is 99 degrees, which tied the record high of 99 degrees set in 1955. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte/Martin SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Jung/La Corte CLIMATE...

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