Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 202233 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 533 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An extended period of mild weather with well above normal temperatures is expected through the end of the week. A weak cool front will push through the state late Tuesday and Tuesday night. A stronger cold front is expected for Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Expect fair weather overnight with increasing cirrus, as upper level ridge axis shifts eastward from the Grt Lks. At the surface, a back door cold front is over the Susq Valley at 22Z, with a marked drop off in dewpoints noted across the eastern half of the state. Near term models indicate this boundary will stall out as it reaches the central mountains tonight, resulting in the best radiational cooling across the eastern counties, where min temps may need to be adjusted downward slightly. Euro Ensemble MOS and latest HRRR support this idea of slightly lower temps, with mins ranging from 25-30F across the eastern counties, to the mid 30s over the Laurel Highlands. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A weakening front and the associated shearing upper shortwave will bring increasing clouds to the area Tuesday. Should the cloud cover not be as widespread or thick as expected, highs could easily be several deg warmer than current projections. Otherwise it will not be a bad day overall. Showers will be slow to move east, leaving a dry day for the bulk of the region. The exception is the far NW where it could rain toward dusk. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Gradually milder temperatures will return for the extended period as no genuine cold air push is in sight. High temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures mainly above freezing. Upper ridge axis is forecast to be located east of the state Tuesday night. The weak cold frontal boundary will produce a brief period or two of showers for late Tuesday (Northwest) and over the Central and Eastern parts of PA Tuesday night into the mid morning hours of Wednesday. Clouds associated with this weak frontal boundary will help to suppress temps a bit (but they`ll still remain well above average). The flow turns back to the SW by Wednesday causing temps to rebound. The overall, large-scale pattern becomes more amplified late in the week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase Thursday and Friday with warm front lifting through, and bringing increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Nice afternoon outside with just a few high clouds. 21Z TAFS sent. Widespread VFR will continue into Tuesday with surface winds generally 10kt or less, generally out of the NW for the rest of today, becoming light and variable overnight. A weakening cold front could bring rain showers and reduced conditions to NW PA by nightfall Tuesday, otherwise VFR and a light wind will continue. Outlook... Wed...A.M. sub-VFR possible NW 1/3; otherwise VFR/no Sig Wx. Thu...Sub-VFR possible with chance rain showers. Fri...Sub-VFR possible with rain showers likely Friday night. LLWS probable. Sat...strong cold to bring Sub-VFR and possible thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... Summary of record highs from 2/18 and 2/19... Harrisburg: Record high of 69 degrees on 2/19. Previous record high was 66 degrees set back in 1997. Williamsport: Record high of 69 degrees on 2/19. Previous record high was 60 degrees set back in 1997 Altoona: Record highs of 64 degrees on 2/19 and 66 degrees on 2/18 (tie). Previous record highs were 61 in 1994 (2/19) and 66 in 1981 (2/18). Bradford: Record high of 62 degrees on 2/18. Previous record high was 56 degrees set back in 1994. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte/Martin CLIMATE...

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