Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 271249 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 849 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 8 AM... MOST OF THE AREA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BUT IT IS STARTING TO LIFT ON SCHEDULE. LITTLE LIFT OR INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POP TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AS NEAR TERM MODELS YIELD SOME INSTABILITY AND CLOUDS WHICH BREAK THE CAP AS HEATING AND MOISTURE AROUND THE EDGES OF THE MORNING STRATUS AND FOG LIFTS AND MIXES. HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BE THE FIRST FOCUS POINTS TODAY. PREV... UPPER TROF STILL SWINGING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 1.5" PW REMAINS OVER MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. BY 18Z...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE REACHED THE PA/MD BORDER...MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ITS TRACK. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S REACHING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE SOUTH WON`T SEE AS DRAMATIC OF DRYING TODAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL IMPROVEMENT AS PW DROP BELOW 1.5" THROUGHOUT AND UPPER TROF SWINGS ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z TONIGHT. MAXES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DELIVERING DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS PW DECREASES TO AROUND 1.0" BY 00Z WED. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS BEYOND MAX TEMPS WHICH BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH...AFTER OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM. OUTLOOK... TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX. WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA. THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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