Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281838 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 138 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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BRIGHT MID WINTER SUN HAS HELPED TEMPS REBOUND SOMEWHAT FROM THE VERY CHILLY EARLY MORNING READINGS. SKIES WILL REMAIN BASICALLY CLEAR WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS BEGINS. HAVE BACKED OFF THE TIMING OF PRECIP INTO MY NWRN ZONES BY EARLY THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THE SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MAKE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE OPTED FOR A LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET. MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STRONG...SEVERAL TO 8 HOUR SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW PART OF THE STATE WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD. FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH DECENT/RELATIVELY STG DYNAMICS AND WAA SHOULD SPREAD PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH DEEP WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUITE QUICKLY...AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR SE. THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH. SAT...VFR. SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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