Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220251 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will usher in a cooler and much drier airmass this overnight. It will be very comfortable for much of the upcoming week. The next significant chance for rain won`t arrive late Thursday or Friday as a rather weak cold front slides southeast across the state.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is accompanying the secondary cold front through the NW mountains. the RAP shows a small pocket of instability, likely lake enhanced as relatively cool air flows over the very warm lake waters. The showers should begin to dissipate as they move downwind of the lake and high pressure begins to build. Min temps will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s and dewpoints falling into the 50s will make for a great night to open windows and get some fresh air.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Monday will seem like we`ve jumped right into a splendid very late summer/early Autumn day with refreshingly cooler temps (especially across the mtns) and low humidity. Max temps (in the u60s to l70s across the mtns, and u70s to around 80F in the Susq Valley) will be 3-9 deg F below normal for the date. NW winds averaging 8-10 kts will gust into the mid to upper teens (kts) at times during the late morning/afternoon. Bkn clouds with possibly a few sprinkles will persist across the mtns until around 16Z...with mainly sunny skies in all areas for the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cooler, drier air will advect into the region bringing a long period of precipitation-free weather through most of next week. The next period of active weather will come as an upper level trough moves into the region Thursday night into Friday. A front with +1 to 2 STD/anomalous PWATS progress through Friday. That should correspond with a passing but possibly weakening/shearing cold front. Dry air under high pressure is expected for next weekend. The week will start off cooler due to the northwesterly flow but will gradually warm as the week continues with temperatures slightly above normal through the second half of the week. What will also make this week feel cooler is the lack of humidity as dewpoints will be in the 50s through most of the week. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cold front, located just east of KIPT and KMDT at 00Z, will push through the rest of Eastern Pa btwn 00Z-02Z. Still a slight chance for a brief shra and accompanying vis reduction at KLNS through arnd 02Z. Otherwise, widespread VFR conds expected this evening across Central Pa, as drier air pours into the region behind the front. Moisture from the Great Lakes will spread south into the region late tonight, likely resulting in MVFR cigs across the Allegheny Plateau. Model soundings even suggest IFR cigs are possible early Monday morning at KJST, where northwest flow is forced to ascend the higher terrain of the Laurel Highlands. At KBFD, a diminishing wind and partial clearing could result in a period of fog btwn 09Z-12Z. Any lower cigs/fig across Western Pa will mix out shortly after 12Z and there is a high confidence of VFR across the entire region for the rest of Monday, as high pressure builds over the state. Outlook... Tue-Wed...Patchy AM fog possible, esp KBFD/KIPT. Thu...Isold pm tsra impacts possible w mtns. Fri...AM low cigs possible w mtns. && .EQUIPMENT... The KCCX radar was activated in order to monitor the active weather earlier today. Radome painting is not yet complete. Therefore, the radar will likely be taken off line during the benign weather stretch in the first part of this week to allow the work to be completed. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald EQUIPMENT...

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