Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 221119 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 719 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL REINFORCE THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WHICH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET/STORMY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 530 AM UPDATE... MID CLOUDS UPSTREAM MAKING LITTLE NOISE/PRECIP AS THEY DROP OUT OF MI AND LE INTO OH AND WRN PA. WILL HOLD THIS LINE OF THOUGHT AND MAKE ONLY SMALL CHC POPS FOR THE WEST - MAINLY THE SW. PREV... SHOWERS FROM DEFORMATION BAND HAVE SLID OFF TO THE EAST AND A VERY DISTINCT COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE MOTOR CITY AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE AIR IS ALREADY PRETTY DRY OVERHEAD - WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE 30S TO M40S. THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 10KFT RANGE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LIFT IS GENERATED BY THE MODELS TO KEEP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS GOING AS THEY DROP ACROSS OH AND WRN PA - CLIPPING THE SWRN THIRD OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...THE MOST NOTICEABLE WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE WIND PICKING UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH AREA- WIDE AND SOME GUSTS WILL GET INTO THE 30S IN THE LAURELS/CENTRAL MTNS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER ABOUT 10 TO 15F FROM YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN DUE TO THE STILL MILD 8H TEMPS AND MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. ONLY THE NWRN COS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE CLOUDS FROM THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRESS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND ANY CLOUDS OVER THE NRN TIER WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE TOWARD SERN PA. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER WRN PA SATURDAY MORNING. PWATS AND 8H TEMPS ARE AROUND 2 STD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMALS. THUS...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND THE AIR WILL GET COLD. JUST A HINT OF WIND MAY BE LEFT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND COULD BUST THE FROST CALL. BUT THE AIR WILL JUST GET PLAIN COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE MUCH OF THE NORTH AND WEST. THE CENTRAL AND LAUREL MTNS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE 2M LEVEL...BUT FROST MAY FORM IN THE OPEN AREAS AND IN THE VALLEYS. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE NW AND A FEW COUNTIES TO THE S/E OF THAT WILL BE UNDER A FROST ADVY FOR SAT MORNING. THE COLD SPOTS OF THE SE COULD EVEN GET SOME PATCHY FROST...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVY THERE. SATURDAY STARTS SUNNY AND SHOULD STAY SUNNY...BUT THE TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BACK TO NORMALS AND WILL FALL ABOUT 5F SHORT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN TODAY...LESS THAN 10MPH. OVERALL...A BEAUTIFUL DAY TO ENJOY DOING SOMETHING OUTSIDE. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAR THE SKY AND THESE MAY THICKEN UP/LOWER ON SAT NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONTINUITY YIELD A MIN IN THE M30S AROUND KBFD FOR SUN MORNING. M30S WOULD NORMALLY MEAN A FROST IS POSSIBLE...BUT THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS COULD COUNTERACT THE COOL TEMPS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AWAY FROM MENTIONING FROST SUN MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUNDAY MARKS BEGINNING OF A ROBUST WARM-UP THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SIGNALS THIS WARMING TREND...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PCPN RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST DAILY POPS /HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY/ WILL BE OVER THE NW WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE SE. SLOW EVOLVING FLOW PATTERN GRADUALLY TAKES RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY WEAKENS...WITH JET STREAM RETREATING NORTHWARD AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL STRETCH A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MORE W-E...AND LIKELY REMAINING OFF TO OUR NW. WE/LL REMAIN ON THE VERY WARM AND MUGGY SIDE OF THE FRONT IN A VERY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN...KEEPING DAILY SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 80S SE...WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE SE. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 12Z-20Z...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY AN AFTN -SHRA ARND KJST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 25KTS...WHICH WILL DIMINISH ARND SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GRT LKS. MODEL BOUNDARY LYR RH SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS THRU TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. TUE...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... LIGHT RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND THE GREEN-UP HAVE MOST LIKELY LOWERED THE RISK FOR RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE STATE AND RH/S WILL GET INTO THE 30S. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ012-018-019-024-025-033-041-042-045-046-049>053. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD FIRE WEATHER...

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