Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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251 FXUS61 KCTP 250552 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 152 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push southeast across Pennsylvania late Monday. High pressure will return for mid week. It will remain warm throughout the period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... Low-level pooling of 70-75F sfc dewpoints across the Lower Susq Valley, combined with numerous outflow boundaries from earlier convection and the approach a a weak upper level disturbance, will lead to a likelihood of showers in many locations over the next several hour across the region along, and to the SE of Interstate 81. After this batch of showers slides east of Lebanon and Lancaster counties around 08z...the region will see rainfree, but still warm and muggy conditions under plenty of layered clouds. Patchy fog will occur through sunrise where some brief clearing occurs, especially in locations that had rain Sunday evening, It will be a muggy night with dwpts in the mid 60s to lower 70s in many locations. Min temps will range from he u60s across the mtns of northern and western PA, to between 70 and 75 degrees across the ridge and valley region of Central PA. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Ens mean 8h temps support max temps today from the u80s across the Allegheny Plateau, to the m90s across the Susq Valley. A swrly flow ahead of approaching cold front will draw up some of the most humid air we have seen this summer with dwpts in the low 70s ovr much of the area. The combination of heat and humidity warrants continuation of the heat advisory across the SE counties for the warmest hours of the afternoon. A weak cold front will provide enhanced convergence in an increasingly unstable airmass leading to the threat for some strong storms, especially in the afternoon when the SREF and GEFS pump CAPEs up to between 1500-2000J with a not unimpressive LLJ sliding into the forecast area. Any rain today will be very welcome, but probably not enough to put a dent in the widespread dry conditions we have been experiencing for the last several weeks. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Big story in the extended fcst is the expected heat wave lasting into early in the upcoming week, as the axis of the subtropical ridge briefly shifts from the plains to the northeast conus. Anomalous upper lvl ridging building over PA should bring hot and mainly dry wx this weekend, as warm temps aloft suppress convection. Some modest cooling appears likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind weak cold front. However, temps still likely to remain somewhat abv normal within a generally zonal flow. Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts areawide as another cool front progged to move through. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Just a few showers left across the southeast for another hour or so. 03Z TAFS sent. Otherwise most of the night will be dry with VFR conditions. Perhaps some fog and haze just before sunrise. More showers and storms will be possible on Monday, highest chance for strong storms would be to the east, given timing of the cold front. High pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. OUTLOOK... TUE-WED...AM fog poss. Otherwise VFR. THU-FRI...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Record high for Harrisburg today is 99 degrees set in 1940. Record high for Williamsport is 100 set in 1934. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ027-028-035-036-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE...Lambert

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