Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 261438 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 938 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY BRINGING PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW SHOWERS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 915 AM UPDATE... AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /WELL TO THE NORTH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF THE N. CAROLINA COAST/ WILL BRING A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION NEAR AND SE OF I-81 INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ACCUMULATION WILL BE GENERALLY 1/2 INCH OR LESS THOUGH...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO SLICKEN UP AREA ROADS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN YORK AND SOUTHER LANCASTER COUNTY COULD PICK UP AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW BY 19Z. ELSEWHERE...AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH LLVL NERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A SHIELD OF THICK MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING TODAY. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...LOW-MID 20S IN CENTRAL PENN...AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH OR NW BY MORNING...CREATING AN INCREASING UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW IN THE WEST. THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST. AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO DEGREE H850 LINE.. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE N CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A 4-8KT NERLY SFC WIND ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF TODAY. A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 1-3SM WILL AFFECT MAINLY KTHV...KMDT AND KLNS THROUGH 19Z...WHILE INTERMITTENT VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PENN TAF SITES. THE FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ LATE THIS MORNING AM...THEN OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO. OUTLOOK... FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE. SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM. && .CLIMATE... THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7. THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934. SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...TYBURSKI AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT CLIMATE...LAMBERT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.