Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 301044 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 644 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID LVL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THRU THE E GRT LKS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND ASSOC WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS OF 10Z. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORT RAISING OVERNIGHT POPS TO BTWN 80-90 PCT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE CHC OF RAIN LOOKS MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...FURTHER FROM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE FORCING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT NOSE OF LL JET IN VICINITY OF KAOO AT 10Z AND MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THIS AM...AS LL JET SWEEPS EASTWARD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENY PLATEAU THIS AM. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS THRU THE E GRT LKS LATER TODAY. LATEST HRRR/NAM SIM REFLECTIVITY INDICATE A DWINDLING BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT THRU THE NE COUNTIES BTWN 12Z-15Z. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING NE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AM AND EARLY AFTN...BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...AND BY EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. DIABATIC HEATING RESULTS IN MODERATE MODEL CAPES OF ARND 1000 J/KG BY AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY NOTED ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TRAILING LL JET/PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS LIE IN ASSOC WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVR THE E GRT LKS. HAVE THUS...PLACED THE HIGHEST /LIKELY/ CHC OF PM TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MDL 0-6KM SHEAR OF ARND 40KTS SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING WGUSTS FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD THIS AFTN. WEAKER MID LVL WINDS IMPLY LESS CHC OF SVR WX ACROSS THE NW MTNS. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...DUE TO WET GROUND AND EXPECTATION OF ISOLD RAINFALL AMTS OF ARND 3 INCHES BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS. WILL MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW...BUT A FFA COULD BE CONSIDERED FOR THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE PLUME OF HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL LIE. PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES THIS AFTN...AND THE L80S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL SWING THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE AN UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION...STRONG LG SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA AS THIS FEATURE COMES THRU LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. HAVE REDUCED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER ABOUT 15Z...AS LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. SPC MRGL RISK OF SVR WX ENCOMPASSES EASTERN PA...WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX ARND MIDDAY. PTSUNNY SKIES AND ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 12-14C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WED FROM THE L70S NW TO M80S LOWER SUSQ VALL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MEAN UPPER LVL TROUGH JUST WEST OF PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE PM HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THU/SAT/MON. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES FRI/SUN...IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING SW TO NE IN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE AS A WELL- DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPS TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT VERY UNLIKELY THROUGH 12Z. LOW LEVEL SW JET OF AROUND 30 KTS SWINGS IN FROM THE SW...AND WILL BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO KJST-KAOO ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS FOR MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AREAWIDE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING TUE /WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS/. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BRING A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCT AFTERNOON TSRA. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK... TUE...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA. ISO TSTMS MAY BE STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON. WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEST. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA. THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA SOUTH. SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR

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