Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 222229
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
629 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016
High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into
Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions. There is a very
low chance for an isolated shower heading into the weekend. Fair
weather with seasonably cooler temperatures is expected from
Saturday into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Clear skies will tonight...essentially a repeat of last night in
terms of sky cover and local fog formation. Any light southerly
wind and slight increase in surface dewpoints could keep nighttime
lows a few degrees warmer across the board.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Recent warm spell should peak Friday ahead of approaching cold
front. Model 850mb temps surging to arnd 16C should translate to
max temps well into the the 80s over most of central Pa. Low level
convergence along cold front, combined with some meager CAPEs,
could support a few late day showers/storms across the northern
tier counties. However, bulk of forcing assoc with parent
shortwave is progged to pass north of the state, so will keep POPs
in the slight chance category. Model RH time sections support a
msunny forecast Friday over much of the area, although increasing
clouds expected during the afternoon across the northern tier
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
All model data pushes cold front through central Pa Friday
night with little in the way of upper level support or significant
deep layer moisture. Thus, expect a mainly dry fropa for much of
the area, with just a very low chance of light showers north of
I-80. Although cooler air will begin flowing in on a northerly
breeze, still anticipating another mild night overall with mins
from arnd 50F over the northern mtns to around 60F in the south.
If winds drop off to near calm across the north, could see some
late night valley fog, while an active northerly breeze precludes
fog issues elsewhere.
Models remain in good agreement in dry and seasonable weather
this weekend, as Canadian high pressure builds southeast into
Pennsylvania. Some of the colder spots in north-central PA look
to dip into the upper 30s Sunday morning, which is not unusual
for this time of year.
Forecast from Tuesday onward took a turn toward more uncertain
overnight but extended models beginning to rally around the latest
solution - albeit with a fair amount of variability. Large upper
low in vicinity of western Great Lakes now looking to be a more
significant player by midweek as ridge over western U.S. works
eastward (rather than anchoring in place). This will edge the
trough and slowly unwinding upper low into the Northeast behind an
occluding cold front Monday, with the upper low impacting weather
for much of next week. EC still a bit of an outlier with its
deeper and more progressive trough, while the GFS camps the upper
low over the region for several days. Thus, best forecast is to
mention chances for showers Tue (mainly west) and Wed-Thu
areawide with a return of slightly above normal temps. Broad SW
flow on Tue will transition to NW flow by Thu as temps cool back
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Widespread VFR conditions will prevail overnight with just some
localized brief restrictions in fog during the hours around
sunrise. Any fog and low clouds will burn off quickly Friday
morning leading to another day with widespread VFR and a light
Fri-Mon...Patchy AM fog possible with mostly clear days.
Tue...Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible ahead of cold
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Astronomical Fall began at 1421 UTC/1021 AM today.