Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 120400 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1100 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...DELIVERING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF BLINDING SNOW SQUALLS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DANGEROUS COLD AND VERY LOW WIND CHILLS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR INDICATE THE SNOW SHOWERS DWINDLING AS ADVERTISED BY THE HIGH RES NEAR TERM MODELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAINLY SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. HAVE ALLOWED THE HEADLINES FOR LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO EXPIRE... THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10 AND +10 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL JUST BE A TASTE OF WHAT IT IS ON THE HORIZON FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT BRINGING GRADUAL CLEARING. FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH EARLY TONIGHT AND BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN TIER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE NW...BUT THE CALM AIR IN THE SE COULD CAUSE THE TEMPS THERE TO BECOME COLDER IN A FEW OF THE PERENNIAL COLD RURAL AREAS...SUCH AS SEG AND THV - MAKING THEM 3-5F COLDER THAN THE SURROUNDING LOCALES. THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WSW WIND. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SW AS SOME MEAGER WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF THE WELL- ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE MEAGER /GENERALLY UNDER 1/2 INCH. TEMPS WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE 20S ALL OVER BUT THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL LIKELY LIMIT THEM TO THE UPPER TEENS. ARCTIC FRONT AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STEEP 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM WILL PLOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE FRIDAY IN THE NW...AND AFTER DARK - FRIDAY NIGHT ELSEWHERE. THIS SHOULD BE ONE OF THOSE ONCE IN A YEAR /OR SEVERAL YEAR/ EVENTS COMPLETE WITH DANGEROUS BLINDING SNOW SQUALLS CREATING WIDESPREAD TRAFFIC/TRAVEL PROBLEMS...FROM THE COMBINED EFFECT OF HEAVY FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW - AMOUNTING TO BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES IN A SHORT 30 TO 60 MINUTE PERIOD. THUNDER WAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE GRIDDED WEATHER FIELDS...ESP ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE BASED ON THE LATE DAY/EVENING TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FROPA. WIND CHILLS DIP TO UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA /-15F/ EARLY SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEG F BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE BY THEN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... *IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK. POLAR VORTEX DIVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH ARCTIC BLAST INTO CENTRAL PA SAT- SUN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP A MEAN TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST 11/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK...BUT THERE IS STILL A DECENT SPREAD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY MON-TUE BUT THE TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEXT WEEK SHOULD END ON A MILDER NOTE. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REACHING -25F WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET IN LATER SHIFTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP. A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL SPREAD HAS NARROWED A BIT CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST NEXT MON-TUE. THE 11/12Z OPERATIONAL EC REMAINS ON THE WWD EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN GEM AND GFS/GEFS. THE GFS/GEFS HAVE BOTH TRENDED WWD FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PTYPES BUT ALL THE MODELS ARE SIGNALING A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THE LKLY RANGE FOR DAY 5.5-6 /MON NGT-TUESDAY/. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FADE AS ONLY SMALL SNOW BANDS AFFECTING BFD AND...AT TIMES...JST...REMAIN. AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THE SNOW WILL FADE AND END BY 09Z. UNTIL THEN PERIODS OF IFR REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BFD AND MVFR AT JST. THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE...THE VALLEY REGION...AND OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND DIMINISHING WIND TO CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS...ESP W MTNS. PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR IN INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE. MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY NW HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-037-041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU

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