Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 291425 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1025 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AFTER A VERY DRY APRIL...WE HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A WET PATTERN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS US SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DEEP MOISTURE...AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE. A SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES DROPPING OUT OF THE LOWER GR LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING A BIT MORE LIFT AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AS WE STAY LOCKED IN THE COOL AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE VERY CHILLY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF APRIL...ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F IN MOST PLACES. SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS COULD REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F SHOULD THE WARM FRONT BE ABLE TO CREEP NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST HRRR. THE MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE HIGHS COULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... INVERTED TROUGH AND TODAY`S SFC WAVE AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWARD ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BE WEAK...SO PLENTY OF STRATUS AND STRATO CU CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS EARLY ON...THEN PATCHY DRIZZLE BECOMING LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN PENN AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH A STEADY...SOAKING RAIN DEVELOPING FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NOSE OF A 2-3 SIGMA SOUTHERLY LLJ AND AREA OF STRONG...NEARLY 4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN PENN. PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MESO SCALE LIFT VARIES A BIT FROM MODEL-MODEL AND ACROSS VARIOUS EFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AOA 0.50 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS EFS PLUMES INDICATE THAT OVER 0.60 IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A 1010MB WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN STAYS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT FOR SAT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXTREME SOUTHERN PENN COULD NOSE INTO THE L-M 60S SUNDAY AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT MOVES VERY CLOSE TO, OR NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. OUTLOOK... MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. TUE...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

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