Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 222229 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 629 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions. There is a very low chance for an isolated shower heading into the weekend. Fair weather with seasonably cooler temperatures is expected from Saturday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Clear skies will tonight...essentially a repeat of last night in terms of sky cover and local fog formation. Any light southerly wind and slight increase in surface dewpoints could keep nighttime lows a few degrees warmer across the board. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Recent warm spell should peak Friday ahead of approaching cold front. Model 850mb temps surging to arnd 16C should translate to max temps well into the the 80s over most of central Pa. Low level convergence along cold front, combined with some meager CAPEs, could support a few late day showers/storms across the northern tier counties. However, bulk of forcing assoc with parent shortwave is progged to pass north of the state, so will keep POPs in the slight chance category. Model RH time sections support a msunny forecast Friday over much of the area, although increasing clouds expected during the afternoon across the northern tier counties. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... All model data pushes cold front through central Pa Friday night with little in the way of upper level support or significant deep layer moisture. Thus, expect a mainly dry fropa for much of the area, with just a very low chance of light showers north of I-80. Although cooler air will begin flowing in on a northerly breeze, still anticipating another mild night overall with mins from arnd 50F over the northern mtns to around 60F in the south. If winds drop off to near calm across the north, could see some late night valley fog, while an active northerly breeze precludes fog issues elsewhere. Models remain in good agreement in dry and seasonable weather this weekend, as Canadian high pressure builds southeast into Pennsylvania. Some of the colder spots in north-central PA look to dip into the upper 30s Sunday morning, which is not unusual for this time of year. Forecast from Tuesday onward took a turn toward more uncertain overnight but extended models beginning to rally around the latest solution - albeit with a fair amount of variability. Large upper low in vicinity of western Great Lakes now looking to be a more significant player by midweek as ridge over western U.S. works eastward (rather than anchoring in place). This will edge the trough and slowly unwinding upper low into the Northeast behind an occluding cold front Monday, with the upper low impacting weather for much of next week. EC still a bit of an outlier with its deeper and more progressive trough, while the GFS camps the upper low over the region for several days. Thus, best forecast is to mention chances for showers Tue (mainly west) and Wed-Thu areawide with a return of slightly above normal temps. Broad SW flow on Tue will transition to NW flow by Thu as temps cool back down. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Widespread VFR conditions will prevail overnight with just some localized brief restrictions in fog during the hours around sunrise. Any fog and low clouds will burn off quickly Friday morning leading to another day with widespread VFR and a light breeze. Outlook... Fri-Mon...Patchy AM fog possible with mostly clear days. Tue...Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible ahead of cold front.
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&& .CLIMATE... Astronomical Fall began at 1421 UTC/1021 AM today. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gartner NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Gartner SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...La Corte/Gartner CLIMATE...

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