Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 212249
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
549 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017
An extended period of mild weather with well above normal
temperatures will continue through the end of this week. A weak
cool front will push through the state late today and tonight.
A stronger cold front is expected for Friday into Saturday,
followed by a shot of colder air with gusty westerly winds over
the upcoming weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Regional radar mosiac shows fracture frontal shower band pushing
into western PA this evening...with isolated sprinkles crossing
the Central Mountains. With the northern and southern streams
disengaging from one another, higher rain chances are split to
the north and south of central PA. Latest HRRR starts to fill
shower activity in during the pre dawn hours across the central
mountains, a trend that will be watched for the next few runs.
Overall very light QPF expected with the front overnight into
We have yet another very mild night in store with temperatures
averaging 15-25 deg above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The weak cold front will either stall or fall apart right over
the local area later tonight and Wed. Model soundings suggest a
fair amount of cloudiness hanging in over the state, but we will
probably not see more than a stray shower in a few spots.
Sunshine, mixed with varying amounts of clouds will be the
rule. Considering the mild start to the day, and GEFS mean 850
mb temps of 7-8C, we should see max temps easily reaching the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Gradually milder temperatures will return for the extended
period as no genuine cold air push is in sight. High
temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal
with min temperatures mainly above freezing.
Deepening Swrly flow for the second half of the week will cause
temps to rebound to well above normal (and perhaps near record
levels in some locations).
The overall, large-scale pattern becomes more amplified late in
the week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts
into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase Thursday and Friday
with warm front lifting through, and bringing increasing rain
chances heading into the weekend, followed by a shot of
colder/windy conditions Saturday through Sunday.
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR will continue into tonight even as clouds
increase ahead of weakening frontal system approaching from the
Midwest. MVFR ceilings are likely along with a period of light
rain showers later this evening into early Wednesday morning
across the NW 1/3 of the airspace.
Sub VFR conditions will be most likely the first half of Wed
over the higher elevations form the Laurels to the northern
mountains, with conditions improving back to VFR during the
Thu-Fri...Mainly VFR with possible rain showers and brief
Sat...LLWS. Strong FROPA with sub-VFR likely in moderate rain
showers. Isolated TS psbl. Post-frontal NW wind gusts 25-35kts
psbl with snow showers NW 1/3 Saturday night into early Sunday.
Sun...Sub VFR Laurels up into the Northern Mountains along with
scattered lake enhanced snow showers.
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte