Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 282252 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 652 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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The stalled surface front over the Mason Dixon line will move northward tonight as a disturbance approaches from the Ohio and mid Tennessee River Valleys. This will produce a soaking rain over portions of central and south central PA tonight into Friday morning. Behind this system slightly cooler air aloft moves over the region to usher in the weekend. But the ridge may begin to build to our west again early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Regional radar at 2230Z showing a stratiform rain falling across much of southern Pa in region of lg scale forcing ahead of approaching shortwave ovr the midwest. Radar trends and latest nr term mdls suggest rain will increase in coverage this evening as shortwave approaches. Each HRRR run has different scenarios with evolution and the GFS has the heavy rain axis relatively deep into the cooler air. Cells that develop are slow movers. Lots of uncertainty but any lumbering convective core has the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall cannot rule out 1-2 inches in 1 hour later this evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The rain with embedded heavy showers and storms will continue to over take the region. We kept lowest PoPs and QPF in northwest. Best chance of rain is clearly south and southeast. The GFS rainfall is quite impressive but likely too far north and west based on the CAMS. Things should wind down overnight and early AM. Not as hot Friday and the threat of heavy rain drops off fast in AM and the PoPs will lower as the day goes on. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Friday night a short-wave trough will move across Indiana and Ohio spreading showers and possible thunderstorms into western PA. Central PA will see increasing chances for rain becoming likely by afternoon. A second wave moves through in cyclonic flow Sunday keeping the POPs in the 50-70 range with highest chances over the eastern counties. Short-wave moves to the coast Sunday night with ridging building in across Central PA helping clear things out.Monday should be a drier day with sunshine and temps in the 80s.Hi pres ridge should hold through Wednesday though the GFS tries to indicate maybe an isolated afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm over the Laurel Highlands both days. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... From KJST across to KLNS showers and rain will affect flying conditions. At each site near and south of this lines showers and thunderstorms will lower visibility and ceilings for the next 8-12 hours. Some of the storms will have intense rainfall. Expect rapid changes to IFR conditions. Large slow moving storms are already present in the flying areas around KTHV-KMDT-KCXY-KLNS. Most of central and southern areas will see periods of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. MVFR initially to the north but many areas of MVFR to IFR in the south. As the system moves out tomorrow morning conditions should rapidly improve from west to east. OUTLOOK... FRI...Some restrictions in SHRA/TSRA and patchy fog...before 9 AM. SAT- MON...Wide range of conditions expected with a chance of showers and storms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday morning for PAZ036-056-057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Grumm/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Grumm/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Watson AVIATION...Grumm

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