Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 180402 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1202 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... COMPOSITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE ARE JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS. WE WILL REMAIN FAIR...BUT THIS TENDENCY FOR A MOIST MARITIME FLOW TO HELP DEVELOP A SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE HAVE A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT...BUT IF THE CLOUDS KEEP DEVELOPING BEFORE THE WINDS AND TEMPS DROP OFF...FROST WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CURB THE TEMP DROP TONIGHT...AND MINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN EARLIER TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY UNDERWAY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL /0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK TO/OR ABOVE 70F. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LAYER OF SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS...AND REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z. CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK... FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE PA EARLY. FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/. SUN-MON...NO SIG WX. TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.