Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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509 FXUS61 KCTP 190639 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 139 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large are of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will maintain fair skies for the next few days. Temperatures will moderate to near normal Friday, then climb well above normal over the upcoming weekend with mainly dry weather continuing. A cold front will move through the area later Monday or Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Mostly clear skies prevailing across central Pa early this morning. Southern periphery of broken cloud shield associated with vigorous shortwave tracking into northern New England brushed the North Central mountains before midnight, but skies have cleared since. Scattered mid to high clouds over the Lower Susq River Valley are exiting to the east and south towards the Piedmont and south of the Mason Dixon line. Westerly breeze and weak warm advection aloft should limit radiational cooling compared to recent nights despite the mostly clear skies. In fact, temps rose a degree in many spots this past hour due to the freshening southwest breeze. In general mins will range from the mid teens north to the lower to mid 20s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Fair and warmer weather expected Friday, as upper ridge builds eastward into the region. Model soundings indicate mixing to 925mb under mostly sunny skies. Mixing down ensemble mean 925mb temps of around -4C should translate to highs from the low 30s over the northern mountains, to the low 40s in the southern valleys. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main change was to slow down rain and snow moving out next Tuesday by a few hours. Did take rain and snow out for Saturday night, as we will be between systems, with some ridging. Supported by new EC run. More detail below. High pressure moving off the southeast coast late in the week will bring mild and dry weather to the area which will last through most or all of the upcoming weekend. A deep low will swing a cold front across the area late Monday and early Tuesday next week, accompanied by a few period of rain showers amounting to 1 to 3 tenths of an inch of Liq Equiv precip. There is a low probability for a weak wave of low pressure to develop along the front heading into Tuesday which could add a few to svrl tenths more and even some light accums of snow. Mainly dry weather with just some isolated to scattered snow showers will follow for later Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread VFR is the rule and will continue at least into Friday. The strong gradient that is bringing the drier air and fair skies will allow for a period of LLWS to the region. Outlook... Fri-Sun...Mainly VFR. Mon...Reduced conditions with rain showers associated with an approaching cold front. Tue...MVFR/IFR with snow showers west and north. VFR central and eastern terminals. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry and colder weather tonight will form additional ice as stream flows and open channels decrease. Another warm up is expected by the end of the week into the weekend with rain to accompany a frontal system early next week. Dewpoints not fcst to be as high as last Friday evening, so expecting less rain and runoff. Flood watch for far southeast into Saturday, given amt of ice in Susquehanna River. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for PAZ065-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...La Corte/Gartner HYDROLOGY...

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