Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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945 FXUS61 KCTP 050318 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1018 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST MAY SPREAD A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOWS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY 06Z OVER SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER...THEN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW SNOW SHORTLY AFTERWARDS AND LASTING THROUGH 13Z. STILL EXPECTING A COASTING TO AS MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES OVER EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF LANCASTER COUNTY. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON SCHEDULE JUST SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NC LATE THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ALONG THE OUTER NC BANKS OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL COS TONIGHT AS THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CYCLONIC. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT/ISOLD SHSN IN THE NW THO AS THE STRONG VORT MAX NEAR PA FROM THE W. THE FLOW IS STILL OFF THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER ELEVS OF PA. JUST A DUSTING THERE AS WELL. MINS WILL BE LOWEST IN THE NW WHERE CAA BRINGS 8H TEMPS DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW 0C. THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NW AND THE AXIS OF THE JET STREAM PASSES OUR LONGITUDE EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... SNOW SHOULD SCOOT EAST OF LANCASTER COUNTY BY OR AFTER 700 AM. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON ALL FRONTS WITH THE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NE AND VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING. WILL LINGER MENTION OF --SHSN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THE NWRLY WIND WILL PICK BACK UP. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR MAXES WITH NIL ADVECTION AND 8H TEMPS AROUND -10C. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WILL TRANSITIONS TO A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A QUIET START TO THE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER WILL TREND COLDER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AT THIS POINT APPEARS LOW TO MODERATE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT STILL HINTED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST TRENDS HOWEVER ARE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO BE FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVR THE MTNS. FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL -SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W. ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. && .HYDROLOGY... OBVIOUS ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...FITZGERALD HYDROLOGY...

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