Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 211657 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1257 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A wavy cold front will move east of the area this evening, followed by windy and showery conditions for tonight through Saturday night. The first bout of lake effect and upslope rain and snow showers are possible over some of the higher ridge tops. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The low and cold front just passed through Williamsport with a wind shift and quick gust to 33kt. The rain is continuing in the colder air west of the front but it is also becoming more spotty. The HRRR keeps the off an on rain going even into the overnight before finally beginning to wind down for the second half of the overnight. Existing flooding issues are reportedly beginning to improve so most of the flood watch has been canceled. Something to consider for later tonight into early Saturday will be the potential for the season`s first accumulating snows over the RIDGETOPS of the Laurels and Northern Mountains. The guidance has been persistent in bringing the coldest 850mb temps of the season to date in behind our deep upper low. The potential for a light slushy inch over the ridges is shown in the HRRR and NCAR ensemble. The deterministic NAM and GFS are showing chances for light accums over larger more general areas of the west and north, this seems too generous given surface temps will be relatively warm. Am thinking we will try to emphasize a light slushy accum over the higher elevations only. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... A cool and unsettled day is in store Saturday as persistent northwest flow and progressively cooler boundary layer air is forced into the region. In fact 850 mb temps remain below 0 throughout the day throughout central PA...and we`ll certainly be looking at a few flurries mixing in with any shower spritzes in the afternoon and evening over the higher terrain of the northwest and northern mountains. Maxes will range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower to middle 50s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Anomalous upper level trough will close off and take on a negative tilt early in the period, with a deepening coastal surface low tracking from southern New England north and west into eastern Quebec. A seasonably cold and brisk northwest flow will grip the area early this weekend with lake effect and orographic rain and snow showers likely over the Northwest Mtns and Laurel Highlands into Saturday night. There is still a low risk for coating into Saturday night with accums very hard to come by during the daylight hours this early in the season. 25-35 mph wind gusts will add an additional blustery chill to below normal temps. GFS/EC/CMC all show a fast-moving low diving through the Great Lakes and Northeast into early next week. There is better agreement with this system embedded in the WNW flow aloft passing to the north of the area with max POPs over the far northern tier. This feature will reinforce the cold air aloft at least into Tuesday before strong warm advection commences through midweek. The models show a low near the Great Lakes by the end of the period with some hints a at a cold air damming pattern at low levels with high pressure retreating into New England. Overall not much pcpn expected Mon-Wed. Temperatures will be noticeably colder by the weekend with highs in the low 40s to mid 50s on Saturday. Expect some moderation on Sunday followed by a steady to cooling trend with readings averaging near to below normal through next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Widespread IFR/MVFR will continue behind the front today and even overnight as a slow moving cold front slides east across the flying area. The wind will turn the NW behind and become gusty in the 10-20kt range today. Outlook... Sat...Scattered showers with restrictions NW. Brisk NW wind. Sun...No sig wx. Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible NW. Tue...No Sig Wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ037-041- 042-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...La Corte is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.