Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270258 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1058 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... IR LOOP SHOWS STRATOCU DECK GRADUALLY ERODING ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. THE NW MTNS /ESP WARREN CO/ IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE FEED OFF OF LK ERIE. PARTIAL CLEARING AND A NEARLY CALM WIND SHOULD PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG ARND DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...TO THE U50S IN THE URBAN AREAS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... AFTER A MSUNNY START OVR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPING STRATOCU CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA...WHILE DOWNSLOPING/SUBSIDENCE YIELDS ONLY SCT CU ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. UNLIKE TODAY...THERE WILL BE LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EXITING TROF AXIS. THEREFORE...EXPECT NO REPEAT OF PM SHOWERS. PERHAPS JUST A FEW LINGERING AM LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVR NW WARREN CO. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST COOL DAY IN QUITE A WHILE. BLW SEASONAL ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS OF ONLY ARND 10C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE U60S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE U70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE TEMPS UP A LITTLE NEXT WEEK. LEFT SHOWERS IN FOR SUNDAY...AS THEY WERE IN THE FCST...AND SOME MODELS SHOW A SYSTEM TO THE NW MOVING SE. MOST MEMBERS KEEP IT DRY. 00Z/26 EC SHOWS A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE 12Z/25 EC AND OTHER MODELS HAD A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN SUNDAY...WEATHER LOOKS GREAT INTO NEXT WEEK...AS IT REMAINS ON THE DRY SIDE...AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SE...AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS INDICATED...THEN THIS WOULD KEEP ANY STORMY WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL PA. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT BRADFORD...WITH HIGHER BASED CEILINGS DOMINATING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. BRADFORD SHOULD POP UP TO VFR FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG LATE AT NIGHT BUT ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE AGAIN BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE PATTERN THURSDAY AND PROVIDE FAIR WX/VFR INTO THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE. MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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