Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020732 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 332 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... SFC WARM FRONT DEPICTED RATHER NICELY BY LATEST...04Z RAP LLVL /SFC-925 MB/ ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT SNAKES IT WAY FROM NEAR KBTP...TO KDUJ...TO KIDI AND THEN SOUTH INTO MD PANHANDLE. WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXTENDED FURTHER NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AT 0530Z...WHERE 850 MB BASED LI/S WERE ABOUT -1 TO -2C. APPROACHING SFC WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP TO BLOSSOM CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THE HIGHEST POPS /90-100 PERCENT/ WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ALONG THE TRACK OF THE PRESENT CENTRAL AND NRN OHIO CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/SMALL SCALE MCS. OVER THE SERN HALF OF PENN...POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX RACES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CWA WAS LEADING TO SOME 1/4-1/2SM FOG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN PENN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND SOME MEAGER HEATING OCCURS. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR SEEMS TO HAPPEN JUST AS WE ARE WARMING UP. WHAT ARE CURRENTLY WARM MAX TEMPS COULD BUST AS WELL...IF THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN EXPECTED. WINDS COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE LAURELS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. O OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS DRIER THAN THE MORNING. THE ONLY CHC TS IS ACROSS THE NE IN THE EARLY MORNING AND WAY FAR IN THE SOUTH. BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW IN THE AFTN IN THE SOUTH TO MAKE ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT. AHEAD OF THAT THOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID OR LATE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHERN PA AND ESP THE SUSQ VALLEY. TOTAL QPF IN THE HARRISBURG AREA LOOKS TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING N AND W. THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS EVOLUTION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INSTEAD OF WRAPPING A SURFACE LOW BACK TO THE NE INTO PA WILL NOW MAINLY KEEP A STEADY FEED OF COOLER MOIST AIR - YET STILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND ESP THU...WITH FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN GENERAL AROUND THE WED NIGHT TO FRI RANGE. UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME. SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY MOVED EASTWARD AND DUE TO THE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURES...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR VSBYS HAS SPREAD TO ALL EASTERN TAF SITES. THIS FOG AND LOW STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. IN ADDITION THE LOW CIGS...A BATCH OF SHRA WITH TSRA WILL LIFT THRU THE REGION BTWN 08Z- 13Z ASSOC WITH AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CURRENT RADAR HAS A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH THRU THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUGGEST A RETURN TO VFR CONDS IS LIKELY BY ARND 15Z AT KJST AND POSSIBLY BY AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS FROM KIPT SOUTH THRU KMDT/KLNS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA. THIS COULD AFFECT MDT/LNS. OUTLOOK... TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE. WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU

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