Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 241539 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1139 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will move over and east of the region today, paving the way for a frontal system that will approach overnight and Monday. High pressure will return for mid week. It will remain warm throughout the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Clouds are on the increase thanks to some convective debris from an MCS over Michigan. After a brief respite, moisture will be on the increase once again today ahead of an approaching frontal system. The HRRR takes the area of rain moving out of the lower lakes and tracks/develops it into central Pa in the mid to late afternoon. Besides the very questionable nature of recent HRRR convective solutions, the stable airmass in place and only modest erosion in stability forecast by the various models hint that the HRRR maybe too aggressive in marching the rain across the forecast area. At this point I kept with the idea of low chance pops through late day, favoring my western zones. Highs this afternoon will be mainly in the upper 80s across the mountains, but will again soar into the l-m 90s elsewhere throughout Central PA and the Susquehanna River Valley.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Moisture will continue to slide into the region overnight as the warm-cold front combination approaches from the ohio valley. The ECMWF is pretty aggressive in tracking a couple of distinct areas of heavy rain through the northern portions of the CWA with the first MCS diving se out of NY over my nern zones through 06Z with a second area developing and affecting most of the northern part of the region through 12Z. The normally too-wet GFS doesn`t capture this convection, keeping activity more scattered in nature. The ensembles shed little additional light showing generally chc-likely pops but not even a favored area for .50" qpf in any 6 hour period through the overnight. What seems more certain is that it will be increasingly muggy as PWATs increase to between 1-3 std dev above normal helping support dewpoints popping back up into the mid and upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Big story in the extended fcst is the expected heat wave lasting into early in the upcoming week, as the axis of the subtropical ridge briefly shifts from the plains to the northeast conus. Anomalous upper lvl ridging building over PA should bring hot and mainly dry wx this weekend, as warm temps aloft suppress convection. Next chance of shra/tsra for most of the area comes Monday ahead of shortwave working across the Great Lakes. However, any rainfall Monday is likely to do little to stem the dry pattern we have been in. Heat indices around 100F appear possible by Monday across the Susq Valley, as higher dewpoints are advected into the area ahead of potential convection. Overnight lows are also a concern as the area doesn`t cool off at night through the weekend with Southern PA lows in the 70s with highest readings Monday morning. Some modest cooling appears likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind weak cold front. However, temps still likely to remain somewhat abv normal within a generally zonal flow. Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts areawide as another cool front progged to move through. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Widespread VFR will continue into the overnight. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms associated with an approaching frontal system will bring the chance for localized restrictions developing at terminals that become affected by the precipitation. Have included PROB30 groups for TSRA close to the western terminals starting close to sunset. A cold front/weak boundary will across the Great Lakes tonight and through PA on Monday. Thus, additional SHRA/TSRA are expected through Monday evening, and perhaps into very early Tues morning. High pressure returns for mid-week. OUTLOOK... MON...Scattered restrictions possible in SHRA/TSRA. TUE-WED...AM fog poss. Otherwise VFR. THU...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE... Record high in both IPT and MDT for today is 96F. Current high temp forecast for both locations is 94F. Considering the maxes of the past few days, the very dry soil and likely lack of thick high clouds today we could easily tie or nudge those records later this afternoon. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert NEAR TERM...La Corte/Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Dangelo/La Corte CLIMATE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.