Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 231413 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1013 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and pleasant weather continues today before turning warmer and more humid through mid week. The most likely opportunity for rain will be Thursday or early Friday. The upcoming weekend looks seasonably warm and mainly dry. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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New HRRR went into operations as of 12Z today. It shows temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s over the region. The simulated radar is not broken, it just has nothing to show us. Big Bubble no trouble. Enjoy.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure slowly drifts offshore Wednesday allowing some return flow into the region tomorrow afternoon. The dew points will start to rise again as our flow becomes more southwesterly. So Wednesday should be another outstanding day after some patchy fog in river and stream valleys. The GEFS seems to think any rain/showers would be in extreme western Pennsylvania overnight Wednesday but the probability is quite slow low east of McKean County. Most areas will be rain free. POPS generally below 10 percent Wednesday night except chance POPS in the two northeastern most counties. GEFS and SREF have low-end QPF bias and our blends are clearly too wet.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Model data shows another glancing blow from passing shortwave energy/height falls to the NW of the area on Thursday as upper ridge holds firm from the Mid South up along the Atlantic coast. However, there appears to be sufficient moisture/instability with the weakening cold front/surface trough to trigger scattered to numerous thunderstorms during afternoon/evening. Consensus blend yielded max POPs over the NW 1/3 of the CWA. The front should become rather diffuse on Friday with risk of thunderstorms confined along/ahead of the boundary. The best location at this time appears to be the southeast 1/3 of the CWA and therefore painted low POPs during the day before drying things out Friday night. Forecast CAPE/shear profiles support MRGL risk outlook from SPC into far western PA on Thursday/D3, with room to expand and/or possibly increase level in later outlooks. Anomalous PWs will support localized heavy downpours. Another extensive upper ridge resumes control of the weather pattern into the weekend. This should translate into a seasonably warm and somewhat muggy period although not anything like the 70+ dewpoints we experienced around mid-month. The models seem to open the door for isolated airmass/terrain-induced convection by Sunday afternoon, however the odds still favor a mainly dry weekend for most locations. For next week, the guidance is suggesting a shortwave tracking to the north of PA will drag a trailing frontal boundary into PA which may become quasi-stationary Mon-Tue. This feature would provide a focus for thunderstorm activity and have generally trended POPs upward beyond Sunday. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR light winds. Great day to fly. Patch valley fog overnight. Could make locally MVFR and patchy areas in near water IFR. Clears out fast Wednesday. Another light wind kind of day. Outlook... Wed...Patchy AM fog possible, esp KBFD/KIPT. Thu...Isold pm tsra impacts possible, mainly w mtns. Fri...AM low cigs possible w mtns. Sat...No sig wx expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Grumm SHORT TERM...Grumm LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Gartner/Grumm

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