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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 031059
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
559 AM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE REMNANTS OF A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
PA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT...WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LIFT UP THE
APPALACHIANS TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORTWAVE OVR WESTERN PA AT 10Z WILL LIFT THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY
THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ALONG REMNANTS OF
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY/AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS RUNNING FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS NE TO ARND KBGM. SFC TEMPS RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80...SO HAVE MENTIONED THE CHC OF
FZRA IN THIS AREA.

LGT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY ARND 14Z...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC
LG SCALE FORCING PASS EAST OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS
DRY...BUT THE LACK OF MIXING UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAKE
ANYTHING MORE THAN PARTIAL CLEARING UNLIKELY. AFTER A LONG COOL
STRETCH...MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...RANGING FROM NR 40F OVR THE N MTNS TO ARND 50F IN THE SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING PRECIP AHEAD OF LOW TRACKING INTO THE GRT LKS
MAY JUST CLIP NORTHWEST PA. SOME CONCERN OF ICING IF THIS
OCCURS...AS SREF AND OPER NAM BOTH SUGGEST SFC TEMPS AOB FREEZING
ACROSS THE N MTNS.

AS LOW TRACKS INTO THE GRT LKS...SOUTHERLY LL JET AND ASSOC
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL WORK INTO NW PA...INCREASING THE CHC
OF SHRA BY WED AFTN. DESPITE MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES...A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY MILD AIR INTO PA. A BLEND
OF LATEST GUIDANCE IMPLIES MAX TEMPS WED RANGING FROM THE U40S
NORTH...TO THE L50S SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DECREASING MDL SPREAD/INCREASING FCST CONFIDENCE DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE NOW TIMING
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATE THURSDAY...WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRES RIDING ALONG BNDRY AS IT STALLS SOUTH OF PA ON
FRIDAY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS IN THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME.

WITH DEEP PLUME OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE STREAMING NE ALONG
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIG RAINFALL BY FRIDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE S TIER BASED ON LATEST GEFS AND EC OUTPUT. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF A LIKELY TURNOVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE W MTNS FRIDAY...AS
COLDER AIR EDGES SE. HOWEVER...SIG ACCUMS DON/T SEEM LIKELY ATTM.

ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO FAIR AND CHILLY CONDS.
MDL CONSENSUS IMPLIES A WINTRY MIX MAY BE HEADED OUT WAY SUN NITE
OR EARLY MONDAY WITH PRIMARY LOW TRACKING WEST OF PA AND BLOCKING
HIGH OVR NEW ENG.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CONTINUING DOWNWARD WITH
IFR/MVFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR ALL TAF SITES OUTSIDE OF MDT AND
LNS. LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST
AND NORTH...LASTING INTO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
AT ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z WITH JST AS THE LONE HOLD OUT CURRENTLY.
BFD SHOULD GO IFR WITH POSSIBLE LIFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOWERING
CIGS FROM THE LOW MOISTURE AND STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. CIGS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE IN THE MORNIGN...WITH MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z TO 16Z
AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 18Z AT THE LATEST. MVFR CIGS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY WEST-NW...IMPROVING TO VFR SE BY
AFTERNOON.

WED...INCREASING MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND LIKELY REDUCTIONS...ESP LATE.

THU...CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH OF PA. REDUCED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.

FRI...MVFR/CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR