Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 060841 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 341 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A BROAD SHORTWAVE SPEEDING THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. MOISTURE IS SPARSE SO I HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE VERY LOW MOS POPS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT HAS STARTED OFF THE MONTH. WHAT THERE IS OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR SKIES DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER NICE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER TOP OF A STRONG UPPER LOW EXITING THE COAST DOWN AROUND GEORGIA. HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE 40S WILL BE THE WARMEST READINGS WE WILL SE FOR A WHILE AS A COOLING TREND IS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS WE WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT WHAT STILL IS UNCERTAIN IS IF A SINGLE POTENT LOW CAN BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT COHERENT HEAVY SNOW EVENT. THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NOT VARIED FROM THE SCENARIO SHOWN LAST NIGHT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT EAST OFF THE COAST BEFORE CURLING UP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. A TRACK LIKE THAT WOULD SPARE US A "BIG" SNOW STORM BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW...THE MODEL QPF`S ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF 2 DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES IN MANY AREAS. THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 06Z TAFS SENT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND BOTH OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON PM-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP KJST. WED...-SHSN/MVFR CIGS POSS W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN

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