Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 200959 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 559 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU BASE OF UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU CENTRAL PA LATER TODAY...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF RAIN /WITH POPS NR 100 PCT/ WILL COME ARND 12Z OVR THE NW MTNS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PASSAGE OF ANOMALOUS PWATS AND BEST LG SCALE FORCING AS IMPLIED BY MDL 500-300MB Q-VEC CONVERGENCE FIELDS. LATEST RAP/HRRR CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS BY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. FURTHER EAST...SHOWERS NOT LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE SUSQ VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. WANING LG SCALE FORCING ANTICIPATED BY AFTN...AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...HEATING OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATE CAPES BY AFTN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. NO CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...SO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AS WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMP DURING THE AFTN HOURS. LATEST GEFS DATA AND OPER MDL QPF IMPLY MOST AREAS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SE COUNTIES. MDL BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 0.25 INCHES TODAY. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF HIGH PWAT/CAPES ACROSS THE W MTNS IMPLY THE POTENTIAL OF MUCH HIGHER AMTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH SPOTS AMTS ARND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE W MTNS BY LATE TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PREDOMINATE TODAY...ENOUGH BREAKS EXPECTED TO PUSH READINGS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS FROM THE M70S OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE M80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FOCUS OF DWINDLING SHRA/TSRA WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING ALONG AXIS OF WEAKENING LL JET/PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS. AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THU AM...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TRACKS NORTH OF THE STATE. STEEP LPS RATES CAUSED BY COOL POOL ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD AFTN CONVECTION...ESP ACROSS THE N MTNS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UPWARD TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA BASED ON LATEST GEFS/CONSALL. GEFS 925 TEMPS IMPLY ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS FROM THE M70S TO M80S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE FRI-MON TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUES WITH AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1 AM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS OVER OH AND MOVING EAST. TOPS WERE COOLING...BUT NOW STORMS ARE WEAKENING SOME. MINOR CHANGES MADE ON THE 03Z PACKAGE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE...GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DEWPOINTS HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THEM FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER SEASON SO FAR. EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE WED MORNING...BUT THE REMAINS OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BEFORE THE WEEKEND IF THEN. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT CHC OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. SUN...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE MORNING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...MARTIN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.