Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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367 FXUS61 KCTP 232001 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 301 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Periods of rain will continue through Sunday. A very saturated ground and swollen streams will support an elevated risk for flooding through the weekend. A break in the wet weather pattern is expected early next week. Above average temperatures are expected to continue through much of next week before a relative cooling trend toward climatology into early March.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Expect area of steadier rain to move across east-central PA late this afternoon into the early evening. There will be a general lull in the precip tonight but it will stay cool and damp with areas of drizzle and fog.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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*Flooding possible this weekend* The focus this weekend will be on potential flooding with additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches forecast over most of the area. The heaviest rainfall period/greatest risk for short- duration flooding should be Saturday night through early Sunday morning. The flood watch was expanded to include all of Central Pennsylvania through Sunday evening. Forecast rainfall and very wet antecedent conditions (very saturated ground/soils and much above normal streamflow/swelling streams) will support an elevated risk for longer duration, widespread flooding of small streams, creeks and river tributaries. Expansive low lying/poor drainage flooding is also possible. Temperatures will slowly climb into the mid 40s to low 50s on Saturday before peaking in the mid 50s and low 60s on Sunday based on multi model consensus blend.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The wet pattern looks like it will take a break during the first part of next week before precip risk increases next Wed-Fri. Model and ensemble guidance show a low pressure system tracking east-northeast from the TX/OK panhandle across the Central Plains/Midwest into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by Thursday. The ECMWF/CMC solutions want to develop a secondary low to the south of PA from the southern Mid Atlantic piedmont to the coast while the GFS is much farther north with any secondary development. This may factor into some potential ptype issues or wintry wx but only something to watch at this range. Temperatures will continue to run above average next week with signs of trending cooler/closer to daily climate normals into early March.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Widespread IFR conditions for low cigs and vsby across much of the area for next 24 hours. After rainfall moves through the area this afternoon and evening expect lows clouds and fog across the area. Strong low level jet will bring LLWS to some locations as well. Outlook... Fri...Widespread restrictions in periods of rain. Some improvement poss SW late. Sat...Widespread restrictions with rain. Sun...Widespread restrictions likely in periods of rain. Mon-Tue...No sig wx. && .HYDROLOGY...
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Active hydrologic pattern through Sunday. Recent snow melt and rainfall has soils quite wet. Streamflows are also running high. Forecast rainfall of 1-2 inches will produce significant rises and will need to monitor levels closely. Some poor drainage and small stream flooding is likely.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday evening for PAZ004>006-010>012- 017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Ross HYDROLOGY...Ross

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