Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 162106 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 406 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MID AND LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN A WEAKER SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE ODDS OF A MAJOR STORM SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED BY CHRISTMAS DAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AREA OF MODERATE RAIN PUSHING EAST OF CWA AT 20Z...THOUGH ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA INTO EARLY/MID EVENING. ACROSS THE WEST...PROXIMITY TO UPPER WAVE AND COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS TRANSITION TO A SW DIRECTION...PRECIP WILL BECOME CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH...ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. PLUS...AS COLDER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LINGER NEAR LATE AFTERNOON VALUES FOR A WHILE...BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BY WED MORNING...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH SLIDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MOISTURE PULLED AROUND THE SYSTEM AND PULLED FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ASCEND THE WRN HIGHLANDS BRINGING SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SLIDES EAST. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO WINDS SHOULD KEEP IT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE SE. SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS COULD OCCUR ON THE WRN MTS. IT WILL GET BREEZY ON WED - ESP IN THE LAURELS WHERE GUSTS COULD GET INTO THE 30S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION AND RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER JAMES BAY. DESPITE A WELL ALIGNED WNW FLOW AND FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE AND CAPPING INVERSION HGTS GENERALLY BELOW 850MB WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS TO AROUND 1 INCH IN MOST AREAS IN THE NW MTNS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE (2-4" MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL) OVER THE FAVORED PERENNIAL SNOWBELT DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 12Z FRI. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD AND BRISK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH MIGRATING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST INTO EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BRING AN END TO NUISANCE/MINOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE NW ALLEGHENIES BY FRI NGT. CONCERNING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM... THE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS INVIGORATING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES BY 00Z SAT. THERE REMAINS A BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS IN TRACKING THE DEVELOPING SFC WAVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT BEFORE EXITING THE LOWER 48 INVOF THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN---BETWEEN HATTERAS AND MYRTLE BEACH. WHILE THERE IS MUCH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONVERGENCE TOWARD A WEAKER/MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION OVER THE LAST 2 MODEL CYCLES...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLVING SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM STILL CANNOT BE RULE OUT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A MAJOR STORM HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THIS SCENARIO NOW LOOKING LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE STORM TRACK AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER IMPACTS HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT (FROM LOW TO AVERAGE) GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE TOWARD A MORE COMMON SOLUTION...WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT EMERGING AS THE MOST LIKELY AND PROBABLE OUTCOME. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY STORMY HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AREA OF MODERATE RAIN PUSHING EAST OF CWA AT 20Z...THOUGH ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA INTO EARLY/MID EVENING. ACROSS THE WEST...PROXIMITY TO UPPER WAVE AND COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS MIXED WITH SOME MVFR. BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS TRANSITION TO A SW DIRECTION...PRECIP WILL BECOME CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH...ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. PLUS...AS COLDER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS OVER THE SE HALF OF CWA WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO WINDS BECOMES ESTABLISHED. OUTLOOK... WED...LOW CIGS/SHSN LIKELY W MTNS. OCNL MVFR CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS. VFR SE. THU-FRI...MVFR CIGS POSS NW. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT-SUN...SNOW/REDUCED VSBY POSS ESP SOUTHERN PA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR

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