Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 161024 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 624 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Clear skies and calm winds overnight have allowed for patchy dense fog to form through the lower Susquehanna river valley. This will lift by mid morning. Seasonably warm and dry conditions will occur today with abundant sunshine and light wind. More tumultuous weather will be in storm Thursday afternoon into Friday as a warm front moves through Thursday and a cold front will push through the state late Friday and Friday night bringing with it a few round of showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure will clear things out behind the front for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Have expanded the Dense fog advisory through 13Z due to clear skies, calm winds and trapped low level moisture. Latest Goes 16 Fog (10.3-3.9um) shows fog continuing to expand early this morning. It should slowly lift and dissipate as we mix out by mid morning. High pressure will dominate the day and clearing skies will allow for warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. High pressure will continue through today and into tomorrow morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will remain over the region over the region into Thursday. However the 00Z EC/GFS/NAM are in good agreement of another 500 MB trough approaching the region through the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon. This will correspond with a mid level closed low that will move through the peninsula of Michigan and bring a warm frontal boundary through the state Friday. The warm moist southwesterly flow will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. The main threat will be through the central mountains, especially given daytime heating.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Latest mid range models have shifted the best chances for convection later Thursday into Thursday night. The progression of the warm front eastward will be the best indicator for showers and thunderstorms, with them more likely Thursday night into Friday. A cold front on Friday out ahead of a strengthening closed mid level low will push through Friday afternoon and evening. Combined with moisture out ahead of this system the ensembles and models are in decent agreement on timing and progression bringing it through the mid Atlantic Friday night into Saturday morning. Based on NBM and latest mid range guidance have trended temperatures upward through the weekend and into next week.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fog impacts at most terminals through daybreak with local restrictions AOB airfield minimums. Expect conditions to improve to VFR by 14Z and prevail through the afternoon. Fog impacts are possible again tonight into Thursday morning and will address this with the 16/12z TAFs. .OUTLOOK... Thu-Fri...Sct Tstm impacts likely. Sat-Sun...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ028-035- 036-050-052-056>059-063>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert/Ceru SHORT TERM...La Corte/Ceru LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl

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