Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260717 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 217 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... HIGH CLOUDS NOW COVER THE AREA AND THE DOUGHNUT OF SNOW ALOFT SHOULD SLOWLY CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER THE NW MTNS. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES ALONG THE MD BORDER AND IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BY NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL. THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST. AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO DEGREE H850 LINE.. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO. COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO. OUTLOOK... FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE. SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM. && .CLIMATE... THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...TYBURSKI AVIATION...FITZGERALD CLIMATE...

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