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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 161024
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
624 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Clear skies and calm winds overnight have allowed for patchy
dense fog to form through the lower Susquehanna river valley.
This will lift by mid morning. Seasonably warm and dry
conditions will occur today with abundant sunshine and light
wind. More tumultuous weather will be in storm Thursday
afternoon into Friday as a warm front moves through Thursday and
a cold front will push through the state late Friday and Friday
night bringing with it a few round of showers and
Thunderstorms. High pressure will clear things out behind the
front for the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Have expanded the Dense fog advisory through 13Z due to clear
skies, calm winds and trapped low level moisture. Latest Goes 16
Fog (10.3-3.9um) shows fog continuing to expand early this
morning. It should slowly lift and dissipate as we mix out by
mid morning. High pressure will dominate the day and clearing
skies will allow for warmer temperatures in the mid to upper
80s. High pressure will continue through today and into tomorrow
morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will remain over the region over the region into
Thursday. However the 00Z EC/GFS/NAM are in good agreement of
another 500 MB trough approaching the region through the Great
Lakes Thursday afternoon. This will correspond with a mid level
closed low that will move through the peninsula of Michigan and
bring a warm frontal boundary through the state Friday. The warm
moist southwesterly flow will bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. The main threat
will be through the central mountains, especially given daytime
heating.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Latest mid range models have shifted the best chances for
convection later Thursday into Thursday night. The progression
of the warm front eastward will be the best indicator for
showers and thunderstorms, with them more likely Thursday night
into Friday. A cold front on Friday out ahead of a strengthening
closed mid level low will push through Friday afternoon and
evening. Combined with moisture out ahead of this system the
ensembles and models are in decent agreement on timing and
progression bringing it through the mid Atlantic Friday night
into Saturday morning. Based on NBM and latest mid range
guidance have trended temperatures upward through the weekend
and into next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fog impacts at most terminals through daybreak with local
restrictions AOB airfield minimums. Expect conditions to improve
to VFR by 14Z and prevail through the afternoon. Fog impacts
are possible again tonight into Thursday morning and will
address this with the 16/12z TAFs.

.OUTLOOK...

Thu-Fri...Sct Tstm impacts likely.

Sat-Sun...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ028-035-
036-050-052-056>059-063>066.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Ceru
SHORT TERM...La Corte/Ceru
LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner
AVIATION...Steinbugl