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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 280124
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
824 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ONCE
AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA STILL SUPPORTING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS OF 01Z. HOWEVER...VSBYS AT
KJST AND K2G4 ARND 5SM SUGGEST ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM KJST SOUTHWARD.

01Z IR LOOP SHOWS A SLICE OF MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...WHILE STRATOCU LINGERS OVR THE W MTNS AND BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
FROM COASTAL LOW STILL COVER EASTERN PA. NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS
AND ANY FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE W MTNS OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...AS
COASTAL LOW EXITS.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AND THE LOW/MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A MSUNNY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLW SEASONAL NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE
NE. REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE SNOW GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE MAINLY
VFR TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN