Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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709 FXUS61 KCTP 270558 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 158 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers will exit southeast PA early this morning with continued clearing from west to east behind cold front. Today should eventually turn out to be mostly sunny and pleasant. An upper level low will drop south from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley and cut-off over the Central Appalachians bringing periods of showers from Wednesday into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Showers associated with cold front should exit the Lower Susq. Valley by 09-10z per latest HRRR. Clearing is expected to push east through the morning as well-defined dry slot/below normal PW air overspreads the area behind departing cold front and upper level low dropping south through the Great Lakes. There should be enough gradient wind and dry air advection to limit fog formation, duration and coverage. Overall expect improving conditions this morning with a pleasant afternoon in store with max temperatures within a degree or two of late September climate normals. Most likely the best day this week. The model guidance is in good agreement in taking the upper low southward to a position near the southern tip of Lake Michigan by the end of the period/12z Wed. Still not expecting any rain tonight but the trend in precip chances will reverse and start to edge higher into midweek.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Big change in the weather pattern will set up with a long wave trough and a cut off low dropping down over the Eastern U.S. and several days with rain in the forecast. By Wed afternoon the upper low is over Ohio and moisture is being pulled back north along the Eastern Coast into PA.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Chances for rain showers will increase Wed afternoon with periods of rain showers likely Wed night into Thurs night as the low continues south into Western VA.Friday the low begins to shift back to the northwest continuing the wet pattern into Saturday. Models hint that Central PA may be dry slotted for a bit friday afternoon and night. Upper low begins to lift northeast Saturday into Monday with gradually decreasing POPs. Lower Susq will be driest over the weekend and dry Monday with increasing chances farther north across the higher terrain of the northern tier where chances will linger into Monday morning. Temperatures will be a little milder at night but cooler during the day with clouds and periods of showers thereby averaging around normal.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... South-southeasterly flow ahead of a cold front has brought widespread MVFR with areas of IFR to the region. Expect continued reduced conditions throughout the evening and into the overnight before drier air begins moving in behind the cold front Tuesday morning. Any improving conditions after midnight will probably just set the stage for the development of fog so earlier confidence in clearing is now not so high. Tuesday will start with most areas still experiencing MVFR/IFR, but drier air on a gusty NW breeze will lead to rapidly improving conditions in the few hours just after sunrise. Wed should be the last good VFR day before more showery and cloudy conditions develop later in the week into the weekend with widespread reduced conditions likely. Outlook... Wed...Showers/cig reductions possible late. Thu-Sat...Sct showers/cig reductions possible, esp w mountains. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Grumm LONG TERM...Watson AVIATION...La Corte

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