Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 040714 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 314 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN ILL-DEFINED...DRY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...AND NEAR THE NEW YORK BORDER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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LLVL DRYING IS PUSHING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK CFRONT...WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND JUST A SPECKLING OF FLAT CU SO FAR. ANY LLVL THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOL- SCT TSRA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SE FEW COUNTIES OF OUR CWA. A FEW TO SVRL DEG C OF MID LEVEL COOLING AND A GLANCING BLOW OF MESO-B UVVEL FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER SPEED MAX WILL MAINTAIN MORE EXTENSIVE AND DEEPER CU/TCU ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A FEW SCTD SHOWERS. SPC/S LATEST ANALYSIS OF SFC BASED CAPE INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS...AND UP TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA IS MORE STABLE WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE VERY COMFORTABLE L-M 50S. TRIMMED BACK THE ALREADY MINIMAL POPS A TAD FOR THE FAR SE AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTH FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WITH DCAPE ACROSS OUR SE ZONES BETWEEN 1000-1200 J/KG...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. NO PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS THOUGH AS SFC FLOW EXHIBITS MDTLY STG DIVERGENCE ALONG THE PA/MD BORDER. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE HIGH TEENS/LOW 20S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND DUSK. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WIND WILL BE IN THE L-M 50S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND AROUND 60F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE ON WED...ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LGT WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY. COOLEST MID LEVEL TEMPS /I.E. ONLY AROUND PLUS 1C AT 700 MB...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C PER KM/ COULD LEAD TO A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WED AFTERNOON. POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE IN MOST PLACES. THE HIGH PLATEAU OF SULLIVAN COUNTY MIGHT SEE THE BEST CHC OF SHOWER FORMATION AFT 17Z WED. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 10C-13C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE L70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE L80S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME...AND IN ALL LOCATIONS LATE TODAY...RIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY LIGHT VALLEY FOG WED AND THURSDAY MORNING...ANY ISOLATED AND BRIEF SHOWERS SHOULDN/T BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIF VSBY REDUCTIONS. OUTLOOK... WED...VFR. NO SIG WX. THU-FRI...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON...THEN A TRANSITION TO MVFR WITH A STEADY/WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. HEAVIEST RAIN OVER ONE INCH...AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KJST TO KMDT. SAT AND SUN...EARLY MORNING REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED P.M SHRA/TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU AVIATION...LAMBERT

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