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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
926
FXUS61 KCTP 241602
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1202 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough, located over the Great Lakes early this
morning, will push slowly across Pennsylvania early this week.
In its wake, high pressure will build southeast across the
region by midweek. A cold front will likely push southeast
across the region next Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Scattered to numerous showers with embedded isolated
thunderstorms have broken out along and ahead of cold front
pushing into the northwest mountains at midday.
Lower PW air continues to filter in on westerly flow. NCAR
ensemble indicates CAPEs bubbling up to 1000 J/kg over my
eastern counties, where there remains a MRGL threat. Convection-
allowing models indicate the best chance of showers from late
morning and early afternoon northwest...to the mid to late
afternoon central and southeast. Gusty winds and brief heavy
downpours will accompany these cells. It remains to be seen
if CAPE will be sufficient for stronger storms over eastern
sections.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Drier air overspreads central PA tonight, bringing an end to the
latest very humid seige. Mins tonight will range from the more
comfortable mid 50s north to the mid 60s southeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not a lot of change from yesterday. Still going mainly
with dry conditions Tuesday into Wed. Did lower temperatures
a degree or so on Tue, given concern for some clouds and
lack of real strong cool push. Also models show pair of weak
lows just inland from the south shore of the lower Great
Lakes, not sure what to make of this. A strange summer lately.

Still expecting showers and storms on Thursday into the first
part of Friday, with the next cold front.

Went with mainly dry conditions after early Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Most shra activity has exited to the east as of 12z. Generally
MVFR conds prevail over the central mtns and IFR over the
western/northern mtns - which will persist into the mid morning
hours before improvement (lasting the longest in the NW Mtns).

An upper trough will push slowly across Pennsylvania today and
Tue. This will kick off another round of showers and
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon with intermittant
localized impacts.

Showers diminish by evening, but linger the longest in the
northern mtns. This is also the best chance for ceiling
restrictions tonight. With plenty of low level moisture around,
expect valley fog to develop areawide as well.

.OUTLOOK...

Tue-Wed...AM cig restrictions north/west. Valley fog areawise.
Otherwise no sig wx.

Thu-Fri...Chance of afternoon TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...RXR