


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --019 FXUS61 KCTP 081712 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 112 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --* Flash flooding and damaging thunderstorm wind risk this afternoon and evening across the southeastern portion of central PA * Similar setup for Wednesday with renewed damaging wind and flash flooding risks focused over southeast PA * Continued seasonably warm and humid with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the weekend-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --Thunderstorms are beginning to develop early this afternoon along and ahead of an outflow boundary associated with morning convection that has moved in from the Ohio Valley. As this convection moves eastward with time through the afternoon, it will encounter a more unstable and sheared airmass, likely helping it to take on a more linear mode. With this evolution, the likelihood of damaging wind gusts will increase. Pwats eclipsing 2" over southeast PA will support a flash flood threat where any tstms train. We issued a flood watch starting 18Z today for a portion of the Lower Susquehanna Valley in coordination with WFO LWX. In addition to the robust and anomalous pwat values, very efficient warm-rain processes could lead to rain rates >2"/hr at times resulting in potential instances of flash flooding. Ahead of the rain, there also remains some concern for max HX values to reach or exceed the century mark in parts of the LSV. However, not thinking that this will be widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. Hires models show the majority of showers/storms will shift to the east before midnight (in fact, most guidance has the bulk of the convective activity winding down before 8 PM). Min temps will be a bit cooler than last night, with fog likely forming in the valleys through the predawn hours Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Similar overall synoptic setup on Wednesday & Thursday with gradual southward shift to the severe t-storm and FF risk areas coincident with zone of max PW. Conditions will remain humid and with daytime highs in the 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The forecast for Friday and the weekend is more uncertain, with some guidance suggesting a break in the unsettled pattern, and others suggesting active weather continues. An active pattern would favor continue heat/humidity while a quieter pattern could support the intrusion of lower dewpoints and more refreshing conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A very sluggish, weak cold frontal boundary extended from near KELM to KPIT at daybreak this morning, preceded by a surface trough over the Delaware Valley. The very shallow and just slightly cooler/marginally drier air behind the front has trapped low stratus and stratocu with IFR to low MVFR conditions across much of far western PA, Ohio and Western NY. The southeast half of PA was generally VFR with only scattered clouds and a bit of haze/light fog with just a few spots coming in with MVFR Vsbys. The clear skies to the east and extensive low clouds through this morning over the west will greatly increase the temp gradient east to west across the front as strong heating occurs in the mainly clear air with a much slower warmup west of the front. Any IFR CIGS for the next several hours will be across the Laurel Highlands and NW Mtns. MVFR could linger into, or through this afternoon at KBFD, while KJST should hold onto MVFR conditions until around 16Z, before seeing an improvement/lifting of the low cloud bases. Previous Disc... Muggy air with sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s covered much of the SE 2/rids of the state at 06Z and these conditions will persist ahead of this front across much of Central and SE PA, while slightly cooler air with an 8-10 deg F drop in dewpoint values will occur across the NW part of PA today. A few additional showers could develop by midday today, but showers and thunderstorms will become more prevalent as we head into the afternoon. Brief restrictions are possible everywhere except BFD, with storms starting in the vicinity of a line extending from JST/AOO to UNV to IPT and then moving east- southeastward and affecting MDT and LNS later in the afternoon/early evening. Outlook... Tue PM...Showers fade, fog possible across much of the region into Wednesday morning. Wed...Best chance for storms and restrictions in southern PA. Thu-Sat...Potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly aftn/eve. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ057-059-065-066.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Colbert NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert LONG TERM...Lambert/Colbert AVIATION...Lambert