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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 300814
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
314 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER KPIT AT
THIS HOUR. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PRECIP SHIELD WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EXTENDING FROM THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WSW
TO NORTH CENTRAL. THIS PRECIP WILL CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z...ADDING ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.5" OF ACCUMULATION.
SOME ICE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE QUICK CHANGE BACK TO -SHSN EVEN WHERE SFC TEMPS WERE
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL MAINTAIN WINT WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE
SOUTH FOR GENERALLY NUISANCE ICING AT WORST.

HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON
SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INCLUDED LIGHT ICE TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA.

BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN EARLY TO MID MORNING OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.

SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
 
-- Changed Discussion --
A THIRD GROUP OF SNOW BANDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING FROM VFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TAF SITES...AND IFR OR LOWER AT THE WESTERN
TAF STIES OF AOO...JST AND BFD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE TILL AROUND 10Z...AND CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. JST AND BFD WILL BE THE HOLD OUTS...WITH MVFR TO
POSSIBLE IFR AT JST PROBABLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER