Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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815 FXUS61 KCTP 241920 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 320 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Northwesterly winds will continue tonight and Tuesday, occasionally producing light showers over the mountains. High pressure overhead on Wednesday morning will allow temperatures to near or drop below freezing over most of Central PA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Mins tonight will be controlled by the cloud cover. Trouble is, that is a tough forecast. RH remains high in the LLVLs, but downsloping and some mixing due to still-strong gradient flow will duke it out for how much cloudiness exists overnight and where. Will keep the forecast very climo with mostly cloudy to the NW of IPT-UNV-AOO. Current partly-cloudiness should fill in with some stabilization this evening. Will go for mins close to freezing on the highest elevations, but m30s-m40s elsewhere. Of course, some showers will run off the lakes all night, and some may be a mix instead of plain rain. Snow accums are not expected due to warm ground and --precip. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday looks very much like Monday just a few degs colder. The wind should start to slacken later in the day but may not go calm overnight. Temps again the trouble for Tues PM/Wed AM. In this case, the 5-10F temp drop from Mon PM to Tues PM will spell a moderate-high threat for freezing temps across the whole CWA, and could kill off the rest of the vegetation across the SE, ending the growing season. Have posted a freeze watch for that possibility. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure gradually works in from the Great Lakes Tue into Wed keeping below normal temperatures in place. Cyclonic flow/cold air aloft on Tue may bring enough instability to kick off a few light showers in the NW mountains. CAA comes to an end on Wed as weak progressive upper ridge moves through as low-level flow turns back to the S/SW. Could see a decent frost Wed morning as dewpoints bottom out. A compact low developing over the Midwest will already be knocking on our door by Thu. Drier air remains in place over the east Wed night, but expect showers to work into the west overnight. Rain becomes likely for much of the area on Thu. Model guidance continues to diverge after that, especially at the surface, so confidence in next weekends forecast remains rather low. But a look at the upper pattern suggests general NW flow keeping a steady stream of cooler air feeding into the region, with a series of shortwave troughs sliding through. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Moisture flowing off of Lk Erie will continue to produce fairly widespread stratocu across Central PA into Tuesday. Current VFR CIGs will likely dip a bit and end up MVFR over the mountains. VFR still expected in the SE, and it may even clear out for that area. Winds will stay up about 7-10KT for most of the terminals, but it won`t be quite as gusty as nighttime stabilization happens. Tuesday should be similar to Monday as the flow changes little in direction but does get a little lighter. Outlook... Wed...Patchy AM fog. Freezing temps. Otherwise, no sig wx. Thu...Rain/low cig possible. Fri-Sat...MVFR/sct -shra N/W. VFR elsewhere. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for PAZ026>028-035-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Dangelo is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.