Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200009 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 809 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OPAQUE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL IN THE LOWEST 20KFT. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE SE FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION AND DRY AIR. AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25. DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH. COLDER FOR WED. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU. A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET. ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...NO SIG WX. TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU

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