Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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487 FXUS61 KCTP 201139 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 739 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SEASONABLY COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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IR STLT LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW BKN TO OVC STRATOCUMULS CLOUD DECK OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. ADDED CHC OF SPRINKLES/NON- MEASURABLE PCPN OVER THE NRN MTNS ALONG THE NY BORDER THRU 12Z WITH OCNL LIGHT RAIN REPORTED AT BFD/OLE/ELZ IN COOL UPSLOPE NW FLOW REGIME. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 850MB COOL POOL ALOFT WHICH IS FCST TO MODERATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE SC EVENTUALLY BEING TOPPED BY HIGH CLOUD SHIELD STREAMING EWD THROUGH THE OH VLY. BREEZY AND NOTICEABLY COOLER WILL DESCRIBE THE WX TODAY QUITE WELL WITH HIGHS RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW LATE MAY CLIMATOLOGY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED GIVEN WIND GUSTS AND RH/S NEAR OR BELOW CRITERIA...HOWEVER THE FIRE DANGER RISK AND POCKETS OF DRY FUELS MAY BE OFFSET TO SOME EXTENT BY THE RECENT RAIN/GREEN-UP. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE BY EARLY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE CONTINENT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE PCPN ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO WAA DOWNSTREAM OF HEIGHT FALL CENTER REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY BY EARLY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE MD BORDER. FINALLY...BLENDED MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NW MTNS TONIGHT BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER DOES NOT REALLY SUPPORT FROST FORMATION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DAY 2/THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. GUIDANCE BLEND SUGGESTS DAYTIME READINGS HOLDING IN THE U50S IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE SRN TIER DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR RETURNS TO CENTRAL PA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NGT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP SOME THU NIGHT BUT OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NW TO SE AND NO SIG WX. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS. THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO AT LEAST HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO MSTR TO WORK WITH AND PWS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH VIRTUALLY DRY. A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING OVER THE ALLEGHENIES INTO SATURDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE RISK FOR FROST CONTINUES TO GO UP ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE GIVEN LOWER 00Z BLENDED GUIDANCE CONSENSUS MIN TEMPS AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN. SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS MAY EVEN SEE A FREEZE WITH TEMPS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FROST/FREEZE RISK IN THE HWO AND EXPAND TO COVER A BROADER AREA. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE SIGNALS A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY WILL SPELL AN INCREASING RISK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON-TUE. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE SHIELD OF MVFR CEILINGS THAT ARE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PA. CURRENTLY BFD AND JST ARE AT MVFR WITH BFD AT TIMES DOWN TO IFR IN LOW STRATOCU. LOW CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT AND LIFT BY MID MORNING LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BY MID DAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT 15-25 KTS. HOWEVER AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY...THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO NEAR CALM BETWEEN 23Z TO 02Z. EXPECT VFR TO DOMINATE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES IN DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...NO SIG WX. SUN...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU FIRE WEATHER...

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