Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 060309 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1009 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... SKIES CLEARED NICELY BY MID EVENING...AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FORECAST MINS OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. RETURN FLOW SHOULD PREVENT A COMPLETE BOTTOMING OUT...BUT DID UNDERCUT CURRENT TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES FOR MINS. IR IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS WORKING BACK INTO WESTERN AREAS OF PA AND THESE SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST...FURTHER HALTING THE FALLING TEMPS. NO PRECIP EXPECTED. AS EARLIER MENTIONED...MINS ARE ACTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL - ESP FOR THE NORTH...WHERE LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 14F TO 18F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MAXES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE SOUTH AND SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD AND DRY ZONAL FLOW...WITH ANY MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF THE NEW YORK BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THAT MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS SEEM FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE PATH AND INTENSITY OF THAT STORM...WITH THE BUL OF THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. A SUBSEQUENT LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION WILL BE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE INCREASED QPF...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER AIR FROM THE WESTERN STORM INTERACTS FROM ANY MOISTURE FROM THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM. GIVEN IT IS DAY 5 THERE IS TO MUCH VARIABILITY TO SETTLE ON A SPECIFIC AMOUNT. HOWEVER CURRENT ENSEMBLES SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT- MODERATE PRECIP FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON PM-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP KJST. WED...-SHSN/MVFR CIGS POSS W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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