Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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071 FXUS61 KCTP 232214 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 614 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Pennsylvania will be on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge into next week. A series of weakening cold fronts will bring the mention of isolated mainly afternoon or evening showers or thunderstorms, but most of the time it will be fair, very warm and humid but rain free. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Directional shear and high DCAPE has resulted in isolated severe storms just south and east of Harrisburg this aft. Updated grids and zones sent. VILs of 70 plus, resulted in wind damage, and large hail. Strong west to southwest wind at THV, and a south wind at LNS, acted on high dewpoints to quickly fire storms betweeen 4 and 5 PM. Expect activity to weaken here shortly, given lower sun angle, and warm temperatures aloft. Temperatures topped out in the mid to upper 90s in spots today. Earlier discussion below. A weak cold front pretty much bisects the state east to west with lower dewpoints from about State College northward. Models show this slightly drier air settling south through late day before the front pretty much becomes indistinguishable. I still have the smallest of chances for a pop up storm along the Pa-Md border but the mid levels are still quite warm so confidence is low. Just another hot dry day in a recent string of hot dry days. Weak high pressure will settle over the area overnight. Other than another night of patchy late night fog, it will be fair and mild with lows mainly in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Sunday will feature abundant sunshine for most of the day...along with very warm to hot temps. 850 mb temps will be very similar to today`s readings leading to highs once again well up into the 80s to low/mid 90s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Big story in the extended fcst is the expected heat wave lasting into early in the upcoming week, as the axis of the subtropical ridge briefly shifts from the plains to the northeast conus. Anomalous upper lvl ridging building over PA should bring hot and mainly dry wx this weekend, as warm temps aloft suppress convection. Next chance of shra/tsra for most of the area comes Monday ahead of shortwave working across the Great Lakes. However, any rainfall Monday is likely to do little to stem the dry pattern we have been in. Heat indices around 100F appear possible by Monday across the Susq Valley, as higher dewpoints are advected into the area ahead of potential convection. Overnight lows are also a concern as the area doesn`t cool off at night through the weekend with Southern PA lows in the 70s with highest readings Monday morning. Some modest cooling appears likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind weak cold front. However, temps still likely to remain somewhat abv normal within a generally zonal flow. Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts areawide as another cool front progged to move through. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread VFR is the rule as of early afternoon, and it will continue into the overnight with just some areas of fog expected for a couple of hours either side of sunrise in a few locations. A gusty west to WNW wind will diminish to 10kt or less around or just after sunset this evening. There is a very small chance for a shower or thunderstorm to pop up over the very southern portions of the flying area later this afternoon or early evening. No mention of this low probability event in the TAFs at this time. Sunday also looks hot and dusty. Winds should be lighter with the surface ridge overhead. OUTLOOK... MON...Scattered restrictions possible with a cold front bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. TUE-WED...No sig wx. THU...mainly VFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte/Martin SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte

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