Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 292017 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 417 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING SUNSHINE TODAY...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BRINGING SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING TO THE MARCH SUN AS PREDICTED. SO IT WILL FEEL MILDER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RIDGE IS FCST TO SLIDE TO THE SE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. USING SATELLITE TO TIME THE HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AFTER 21Z. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS MY WESTERN HIGHLANDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW. ENSEMBLE QPF OF .20" OR LESS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS BEING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH. WARM SKIN TEMPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE OF DEG EITHER SIDE OF 30. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE FRONT WILL CLEAR SERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE USUAL POST FRONTAL STRATOCU CEILINGS AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT USUALLY FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NW WILL RUN SOME 10-15DEG BELOW NORMAL. MILDER READINGS OVER THE SE WILL ACTUALLY BE NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE UPPER OH VLY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM REMAINS THE FARTHEST NORTH AND OUTSIDE THE ENSEMBLE LOW SPREAD. THE 12Z GFS IS A NICE FIT/COMPROMISE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DETERMINISTIC SPREAD...JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE SREF/GEFS MEANS. THE 00/12Z ECMWF IS STILL ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HOWEVER IT HAS ADJUSTED A BIT STRONGER VS. THE 00Z RUN. A MODEL BLEND FAVORS A NARROW SWATH OF PCPN ALONG/NORTH OF THE SFC LOW STREAKING SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACRS THE NRN MID ATLC STATES ON TUES. THE QUICK PROGRESSION AND LIMITED MSTR SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS IN THE 0.10 TO 0.30 INCH RANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND MARGINAL LLVL TEMPS. THE GREATEST RISK IS STILL OVER NRN AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTH- CENTRAL PA COULD SEE A LITTLE ACCUM GIVEN AN IDEAL SFC LOW TRACK. MANY AREAS WILL LKLY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AROUND THE MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE 12Z NAEFS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WITH FROPA TIMING MOST LKLY ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO EASTER WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOCAL RESTRICTIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUE INTO EARLY WED...AS LOW DROPS SE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF CANADA. OUTLOOK... MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THUR AFTERNOON-NIGHT...A GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WATSON/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...WATSON/MARTIN

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