Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300343 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1043 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... MID LVL SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU CENTRAL PA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AS OF 03Z. BACK EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE/SIG PRECIP W/THIS FEATURE IS PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AT 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDLS INDICATE IT WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTIES ARND 06Z. HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINT WX ADVISORY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS NOW LOOK TOO COLD TO SUPPORT FZRA. WILL MENTION ONLY SCT -SHSN IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU LATE MORNING...AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE GRT LKS. MDL-BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU BTWN 03Z-12Z OF ARND 1 INCH. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THRU THE CENTRAL MTNS BTWN 04Z-05Z AND EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 07Z-08Z. HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND 14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE. SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED. HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN BRADFORD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST 18-00Z. SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS FROM JST-AOO EAST INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 03Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE 06-09Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006- 010-011-017-024-033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

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