Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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904 FXUS61 KCTP 291131 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 731 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper lvl trough will push across the region tonight and Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build east into Pennsylvania for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Today will feature increasing cirrus, as high lvl moisture is drawn northward from ts bonnie. The increasing clouds will hold temps down a bit, but enough heating/destabilization is expected to lead to isolated/scattered pm convection popping off along the spine of the Alleghenies. All 00z guidance now pointing toward a dry day across the se counties beneath anomalous ridge and assoc lg scale subsidence. No reason to deviate from superblend max temps, which range from the u70s ovr the Laurel Highlands, to the m/u80s across the Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Although tropical depression is progged to remain well south of Pa, a plume of tropical moisture lifting up the mid atl coast, combined with approach of mid lvl shortwave from the west, could produce some locally sig rainfall late tonight/early Monday am across eastern Pa. GEFS and oper GFS/EC all indicate the potential of 1+ inches of rain across our se counties. 00Z models indicating a generally dry Memorial Day across central Pa, as weak sfc low and plume of tropical moisture push east of the area. However, passage of weakening mid lvl shortwave, combined with diurnal heating/destabilization, will likely lead to isold/sct pm shra/tsra. Mdl data indicating a good deal of mid/high lvl cloudiness will continue to stream north from ts bonnie across eastern Pa on Memorial Day, while brighter skies are likely across the western half of the state. Ens mean 850/925mb temps support max temps in the u70s to l80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... All med range guidance continues to point toward a period of fair/warm weather during midweek, as ridge of high pres builds across the state. Cooler/showery wx appears likely by late week, as 5h trof and assoc cold front push se from the Grt Lks. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A trough of low pressure will push across the region late today into Monday. For the remainder of the overnight under the upper level ridge, expect VFR conditions to continue in most locations though MVFR /and brief isolated IFR/ vsbys will impact areas that received rain yesterday - mainly the Allegheny Plateau and isolated spots in the central and east. After some brief MVFR /and isolated and very short- lived IFR/ reductions, conditions will quickly improve to VFR areawide by 13Z. Today will feature increasing cirrus, as high-level moisture is drawn northward from TS Bonnie. Daytime heating/destabilization will be enough to lead to isolated/scattered mainly afternoon convection confined mainly along the spine of the Alleghenies. Guidance continues to point toward a dry day across the SE beneath ridging and associated large scale subsidence. Through much of the afternoon, reducing conditions should be contained to the western and poss central TAF sites. As impacts from approaching trough move eastward this evening and especially tonight, the eastern TAF sites will likely see periods of MVFR develop in a moderate rain with isolated TSRA as slight connection to tropical system develops. A chance of showers and isolated TSRA continues into Monday mainly in eastern third, followed by high pressure and more settled weather building into the region through midweek. OUTLOOK... Mon...Sct tsra impacts poss east. Tue-Thu...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Synopsis...Fitzgerald Near Term...Fitzgerald Short Term...Fitzgerald Long Term...Fitzgerald Aviation...RXR

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