Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 151144 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 744 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED PACKAGE SENT OUT. FOG MORE EXTENSIVE THAN SOME MORNINGS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE FOG HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE SINCE I CAME IN AT 7 AM. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6. MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY. MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL. GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS. OUTLOOK... TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...CERU

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