Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260548 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 148 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will settle south of Pennsylvania overnight. High pressure will return for mid week with continued warm temperatures. An area of low pressure approaching from the west is likely to lift through the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Diffuse sfc cold front now very difficult to analyze over central PA...but appears to extend from the Laurel Highlands to the middle Susq River Valley, and will soon clear my far southeast counties. Main concern overnight is fog formation and how dense it becomes after areas saw some good downpours Monday afternoon and evening and sfc dewpoints are still in the lower 70s south. Advection of drier air across northern Pa should allow temps to dip into the low 60s across the n mtns, while high humidity lingers over the s tier with lows btwn 70-75F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Sfc high and assoc lower PWAT air mass will slide eastward into Pa on Tuesday, supplying the area with msunny and less humid conds. Ens mean 8h temps still supportive of high temps well abv seasonal norms, likely ranging from the m80s across the Alleghenies, to the l-m90s over the Susq Valley. Model soundings do indicate there will be some cirrus across southern Pa linked to convection ovr the Ohio Valley. Can`t even rule out an isold pm tsra along the MD border with Somerset/Bedford Co, in proximity to stalled frontal bndry lying south of the Mason Dixon Line. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... In the extended the heat continues through midweek...then a cooling trend to near normal highs looks likely for a few days as several fronts linger over the area and the core of hot temperatures shifts west. The upper ridge across the Southern U.S. is forecast to retrogress into the Southwestern U.S. by late in the week allowing northern stream energy to produce a weak, but persistent troffing across the northeast states. Cold front currently crossing the region is forecast to stall just south of the PA/MD border. A wave is forecast to form on the front supported by the developing upper trof, moving east through the Ohio Valley Friday and crossing PA on Saturday into Sunday. This looks to bring a prolonged period of unsettled with weather with showery conds across the state. The cloudiness will further support cooler high temperatures than recent days. Low temperatures during this period look to be several degrees above normal, especially across southern sections of the state. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Just some high clouds across the south. Adjusted the 03Z TAF package some. Main problem at this time is the low conditions at IPT. Earlier discussion below. A few more hours of showers and storms across the southern part of the state. Storms formed earlier this afternoon with very high dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and temperatures in the 90s. Anyway, most of the night should be dry with VFR conditions early on. Some fog possible later. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be dry with lower humidity levels, and mainly VFR conditions. OUTLOOK... WED...VFR. THU-SAT...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Record high for Harrisburg today is 99 degrees set in 1940. The high so far today has been 97 degrees. Record high for Williamsport today is 100 set in 1934. The high so far today has been 98 degrees. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/La Corte NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE...

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