Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 032305 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 705 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUDS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL PA IN REGION OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. REGIONAL RADAR AT 22Z SHOWING SHOWERS ENTERING SOUTHWEST PA AT NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET. NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE EVENING FROM CLEARFIELD SOUTH THRU THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS...AS MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE. MAIN FCST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE HIGHEST PWATS ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED TSRA AND LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ARND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL. HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...MARGINAL MODEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES IMPLIES THE CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS THE W MTNS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK. LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO DEVELOP. OUTLOOK... SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX. MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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