Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260657 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 157 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MANY AREAS SEEING HIGHS OVER 50 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ON INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION COULD END AS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... STRATOCU REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION ACROSS THE NW HALF OF PA LATE THIS MORNING WITH DRYING AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW HAS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND FALLING INVERSION HGT WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE SHALLOW CLOUD LYR WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE NW MTNS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP EARLY FRIDAY FOR THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS SEEING FULL SUNSHINE AND VERY MILD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN WITH THE LONG NIGHT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. QUITE MILD 850 MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE 20+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH OF CWA LATE IN THE DAY WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUN NIGHT AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK S STREAM WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SE ZONES SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING A MIX OF R/S IS POSSIBLE IF THIS WAVE DOES INDEED DEVELOP AND TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH. OTHERWISE WILL SEE COLDER AIR SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE CWA IN A FEW WAVES NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES WE WOULD EXPECT FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER...WHICH WILL FEEL COLD AFTER THE MILD WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN THIS MONTH...BUT REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED AS S STREAM ENERGY STAYS SOUTH OF THE STATE. GUIDANCE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE TRACK UNCERTAIN AT THE TIME GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL OVER A WEEK OUT. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 03Z UPDATE... WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK IS MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD. EASTERN EDGE INCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. SO NO LARGE CHANGES...ONLY TO TWEAK FOR THE RECESSION OF CLOUDS AT AOO AND ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. PREV... THE WIND AT MOST SITES HAS SLACKENED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT WIND...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON THE WHOLE...WITH IPT PERHAPS GOING CALM FOR A TIME. THE CLOUDS ARE THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THIS AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE TYPICAL WESTERLY FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING CLOUD PATTERN OF CLEARING SE OF THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION IS ON DISPLAY FOR ALL TO SEE. THE SFC RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS BUILDING IN AND PRESSING DOWN ON THE THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE THAT IS THE CLOUD DECK. IN GENERAL...WE WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL E-W CLEARING TO OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS. THE SAME LOW CLOUD DECK IS BACK TO THE OH/IN BORDER...AND IS STARTING TO CLEAR FROM SWRN OH AT 00Z. WITH THE RECENT CLOUDY STRING WE HAVE HAD IT IS DIFFICULT TO FATHOM THAT THE AREA WILL ENTIRELY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...AND LLVL RH PLOTS SUPPORT THIS GLOOMY SUPERSTITION. BUT...PREV FORECASTS AND CURR MODEL GUID DOES INDICATE THAT THE MVFR CLOUDS DO GET EATEN AWAY EARLY TONIGHT AT ALL BUT JST AND BFD. WILL JUST MAKE IT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THAT AND CLEAR IT MORE SLOWLY. FRIDAY SEEMS LIKE A /FINALLY/ SUNNY DAY. THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID- CONTINENT TROUGH AGAIN PULLS SOME GULF MOISTURE UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. BUT THE RESULTANT PRECIP AND SEVERITY OF THE AIRMASS CHANGE LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN WHAT WE JUST WENT THROUGH. HOWEVER...IT WILL END UP COOLING OFF THE TEMPS MORE CERTAINLY THAN THE LATEST ATTEMPT AT RETURNING TO WINTER. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. SAT NITE-SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS MVFR IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY NW PA AND FAR SOUTHERN PA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...ROSS AVIATION...DANGELO

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