Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 232356 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 756 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift off of the eastern seaboard tonight, allowing a warm front to lift into the region Friday. Patchy sleet and freezing rain is expected over central and northern areas from the early to late morning Friday before precipitation changes to all rain. The rain front will stall along the New York border, then oscillate in the vicinity of northern Pennsylvania through early next week...separating milder air to the south from cooler air and showers north. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Mostly clear skies this evening. But satellite imagery shows the cloud shield with the warm advection over east-central Ohio and thicker clouds back over Indiana and very thick clouds over Wisconsin. So radiational cooling should be quite good through about midnight. Most areas will fall near or just below 32F overnight before clouds spread west to east over the region. All the model guidance implies some light precipitation move from northwest to southeast over the region. It could rain any time after about 1 AM in Warren county and as the precipitation moves eastward. Forecast amounts are very light a few hundreths for most areas. Showed potential for ice after 3 AM over most of north-central Pennsylvania. Guidance shows a quick warm up so in this period any rain could glaze colder surface and untreated roads. We have a slight chance of freezing rain in southeastern PA but think rain will be dominant and very light. So did not cover in advisory. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Any freezing rain should change to rain or drizzle rather rabidly. Faster in the west where it will warm faster and some FZRA could linger in eastern/northeastern areas until 10 or 11 AM. Higher QPF amounts in general should be to the north. Any precipitation after 11 AM everywhere should be rain. Best chance should be closer to the New York border. The chance of any precipitation should lower in the afternoon and we should have a rather quick warm-up. High temperatures should range mainly from the 50 to the lower 60s. Warmest in the south/southwest. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... At the outset of the longer term period the models are in fair agreement in timing and strength. All are indicating a boundary just to the north of Pennsylvania with a large upper level low moving through the central midwest. A negatively tilted ridge over the mid Atlantic will allow for stable but cloudy weather into Saturday. Lows Friday night into Saturday should range from the upper 40s to low 50s. There could be light rain showers on Saturday but warm and stable. A cooler moist boundary should move into the region Sunday out ahead of the approaching low. Have adjusted POPs for timing and intensity. QPF remains variable but possible wet period Sunday into Monday. Above average temperatures are expected over the weekend with the warmest day likely on Saturday with some sites approaching 70F over southern PA. Sunday should be markedly cooler behind a backdoor cold front and a likelihood of rain. However, above average temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely through early next week, as 12Z GEFS indicates Pa remains beneath a mean upper level ridge and plume of anomalous PWATs. The chance of showers will spike with passage of next shortwave Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread VFR flying through the period. High to mid level clouds will increase tonight with surface winds veering to 90-160 degrees. Light precip will likely move across the airspace between 06-18z Friday, starting as RA/FZRA/PL before transitioning to all RA by 15z Friday. Added PROB30 group to hedge toward brief period of ice mix around daybreak Friday. Outlook... Fri...VFR/MVFR. Pcpn ending after 18z. Sat...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain northern 1/2 airspace. Sun-Tue...Sub-VFR with periods of rain. && .CLIMATE... Minimum temperature records for 3/23 at select sites: MDT: 14 in 1934 IPT: 8 in 1906 BFD: 5 in 1959 AOO: 15 in 1960 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM EDT Friday for PAZ006-012-019-026>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Grumm SHORT TERM...Grumm LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru AVIATION...DeVoir/Evanego CLIMATE...

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