Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220710 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 310 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVER VA AT 06Z. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE VA COAST AND DELMARVA BY 18Z THEN TURNING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY EITHER THE 00Z GEFS/21Z SREF OR BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER NEAR CAPE COD. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL WITH OCNL TS/LTG HAS BEEN PIVOTING NWWD TWD THE RT 30 CORRIDOR. THIS FAIRLY ORGANIZED BAND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE NRN DELMARVA...AND MAY PRODUCE SOME 0.50"+ AMTS OVER EXTREME SERN YORK AND LANCASTER COS. WILL USE THE HRRR AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY...WHICH STILL FAVORS THE SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT WITH POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE COOL AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST POSSIBLY INTO FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND FOR MID-LATE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP. HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE FCST. SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD... INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA POSS ERN THIRD. SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE

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