Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 252355 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 655 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS PASSING SOUTH OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KEYSTONE STATE AT TIMES. COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA...AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... STRATOCU REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE DRYING/DOWNSLOPING FLOW HAS PRODUCED CLEARING ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND FALLING INVERSION HGT WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE SHALLOW CLOUD LYR WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE NW MTNS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE U20S TO L30S...QUITE A BIT ABV NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... FRIDAY SHOULD PROVIDE ABOUT THE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE WE HAVE SEEN IN MANY A DAY. CLOUDS MAY START THE DAY IN THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THERE SKIES SHOULD BRIGHTEN TO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY. THE SUN SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AFTER BEING AT 41 DEGREES ALL SHIFT...NOW 39 WITH JUST A FEW SNOW FLAKES OUTSIDE THE OFFICE FOR CHRISTMAS. ANYWAY...AFTER A NICE MILD DAY ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR SAT. A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE RECENT CLOUDY PERIOD...LAST TIME I SAW MUCH SUN WAS NORTH OF THE PA BORDER ON 12/2. ANYWAY...ENJOY THE MILD SPELL. FOR SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL STORMS. MEAN RIDGE IS WELL TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP A W-SW FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST. THIS WILL TAPER THE COLDER AIR...AS A LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE STATES. ALSO THIS WILL CUT BACK THE RISK OF A MAJOR COASTAL STORM. INSTEAD...A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST SOUTH OF PA. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL START OFF MILD...THUS MAINLY RAIN. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST MAINLY SNOW. THE CHC FOR SNOW TAPERS DOWN BY LATE WED...IF NOT SOONER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GRIDS. MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE WIND AT MOST SITES HAS SLACKENED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT WIND...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON THE WHOLE...WITH IPT PERHAPS GOING CALM FOR A TIME. THE CLOUDS ARE THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THIS AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE TYPICAL WESTERLY FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING CLOUD PATTERN OF CLEARING SE OF THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION IS ON DISPLAY FOR ALL TO SEE. THE SFC RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS BUILDING IN AND PRESSING DOWN ON THE THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE THAT IS THE CLOUD DECK. IN GENERAL...WE WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL E-W CLEARING TO OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS. THE SAME LOW CLOUD DECK IS BACK TO THE OH/IN BORDER...AND IS STARTING TO CLEAR FROM SWRN OH AT 00Z. WITH THE RECENT CLOUDY STRING WE HAVE HAD IT IS DIFFICULT TO FATHOM THAT THE AREA WILL ENTIRELY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...AND LLVL RH PLOTS SUPPORT THIS GLOOMY SUPERSTITION. BUT...PREV FORECASTS AND CURR MODEL GUID DOES INDICATE THAT THE MVFR CLOUDS DO GET EATEN AWAY EARLY TONIGHT AT ALL BUT JST AND BFD. WILL JUST MAKE IT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THAT AND CLEAR IT MORE SLOWLY. FRIDAY SEEMS LIKE A /FINALLY/ SUNNY DAY. THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID-CONTINENT TROUGH AGAIN PULLS SOME GULF MOISTURE UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. BUT THE RESULTANT PRECIP AND SEVERITY OF THE AIRMASS CHANGE LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN WHAT WE JUST WENT THROUGH. HOWEVER...IT WILL END UP COOLING OFF THE TEMPS MORE CERTAINLY THAN THE LATEST ATTEMPT AT RETURNING TO WINTER. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. SAT NITE-SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS MVFR IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY NW PA AND FAR SOUTHERN PA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...DANGELO

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