Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281919 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 319 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... CU RATHER TYPICAL FOR A HOT SUMMER DAY WITH A HALF-WAY DECENT CAP...MAINLY MDT CU BUT SOME TCU. THESE WILL LIKELY GET CHOKED OFF BEFORE POKING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAP TO THE NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LESS OF A CAP THAT VERY ISOLD CU MAY GROW TALL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SHOWER. WILL LEAVE MINIMAL POP IN THERE THROUGH SUNSET. ALL CU SHOULD BE DYING AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. SKY COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EVENTUAL VALLEY FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE WE SAW TUES MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IT SHOULD BE VFR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THERE COULD AGAIN BE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WED AM...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS TUES AM. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO MVFR...BUT MOST SHOULD STAY ABOVE IFR. THE HIGHER-DEWPOINT LOCATIONS LIKE MDT/LNS/AOO COULD BE IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE. BFD MAY NOT FOG-IN SINCE THE DEWPOINT IS DOWN TO 53F AT 18Z AND THEY WOULD PROBABLY NEED TO GET THERE OR LOWER TO MAKE DENSE FOG. GOING FCST IS NOT THAT COOL. EVEN IF THEY DO FOG UP AT FIRST...THEY SOMETIMES HAVE THE FOG SLIDE OFF INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR/SUNNY FOR WED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS. OUTLOOK... THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA. FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W. SUN...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...EVANEGO AVIATION...DANGELO

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