Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 022214 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 614 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRYER CONDITIONS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CREEP NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY EVENING RADAR LOOP SHOWS A SHRINKING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA ASSOC WITH FGEN FORCING WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGION. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC UPPER LVL JET WILL LIFT NE THRU NEW ENG LATER THIS EVENING...CAUSING LINGERING RAIN TO DIMINISH OVR THE S TIER COUNTIES. HAVE ZEROED OUT THE POPS FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA...WHERE DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF LINGERING -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE S TIER...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS DESPITE WANING LG SCALE FORCING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT...RANGING FROM THE CHILLY LOWER 40S ACROSS THE N MTNS...WHERE SKIES WILL BE PTCLDY...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CLOUDY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... EXPECT PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY. THE SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO NRN PA AND BRADFORD HAS RESPONDED WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS GOING VFR. A DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW WILL LIKELY HOLD LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1 DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991, 1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE CLIMATE...

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