Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170228 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1028 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. A STRING OF MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT H5 SHEAR AXIS CENTERED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA IS MAINTAINING SCT TO LOCALLY BKN STRATUS FROM EAST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS BEST ADVECTION OF LAKE MOISTURE INTO THE FINGERLAKES REGION AT THIS HOUR...BUT SOME OF THIS MAY MAKE A RUN INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS KEEPING SCT COVERAGE OF CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE...LOWERING DEWPOINTS...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND CALM WIND WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT TEMPERATURE FALLS THROUGHOUT. PREVIOUS CONSENSUS MAINTAINED FOR ONLY A MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT/WED AM DUE TO CLOUD UNCERTAINTY. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO FORM...ALSO WORKING AGAINST A WIDESPREAD FROST. MINS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD ON WED. DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE MORNING VALLEY FOG LIFTS AND COOL AIR ALOFT LEADS TO SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. ON THE WHOLE...A REALLY NICE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S ON THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS OF THE NW AND MID 70S IN THE LOWEST/URBAN LOCATIONS IN THE SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH...PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST ON THU. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND THUS A MORE ROBUST CLOUD FIELD ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BROAD RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. FLATTENS AS IT WORKS EAST...WITH A STRENGTHENING BUBBLE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CWA NORTH OF I-80 THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO TYPICALLY COLD RURAL LOCATIONS OF SCENT PENN...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS. THE HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES. RETURN FLOW BEGINS FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE WEST WITH READINGS 5-8F WARMER. DRIER AIR AND DECOUPLED LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THE EAST COOLER...BUT STILL NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS THU NIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SAT WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...AND SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. HEADING INTO SUNDAY...MODELS STILL AGREE UPON A DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND EVEN THOUGH GFS/ECMWF SETTLING IN ON TIMING...STRENGTH OF SYSTEM STILL BEING DEBATED WITH GFS BRINGING A MORE ROBUST SHOT OF PRECIP FOR LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT. TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER PA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NW/N LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ON MONDAY TO LIMIT SUN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. TUE LOOKS CHILLIER AND DRY. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 22Z-00Z EVENING SATL LOOP SHOWING CU RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG IN THE 06Z-13Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS AT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. LIKELY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KJST AND KMDT...WHERE CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES RADIATION FOG IS LESS LIKELY. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-14Z. HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSLATE TO A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH. SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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