Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 010206 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1006 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID- LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW. THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI. EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE. TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT. ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR LONG TERM...LAMBERT AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD

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