Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270136 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 836 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will pass south of Pennsylvania tonight, then off the east coast Monday. Low pressure will track out of the Ohio Valley and north of the area during the middle of the week bringing a mild and rainy period, followed by a potent cold front late Wednesday that will usher in a return back to colder temperatures for late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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A clear and chilly evening is underway across central Pa, as high pressure passes south of the state. Not expecting temps to fall too far from 01z readings overnight, due to an active southwest breeze. Also, IR imagery showing mid level cloudiness streaming toward the area in region of WAA aloft ahead shortwave over the Mississippi Valley. As this weakening feature moves east, expect skies to become mostly cloudy before dawn across the southwest half of Pa, causing temps to rise before sunrise. Blend of LAMP and earlier NationalBlend support min temps in the 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast early Monday with mid-level clouds increasing ahead of a weak shortwave tracking through the Ohio Valley. Maintained low pops Monday into Mon night with scattered sprinkles or very light rain showers associated with weak overrunning. Best chance of measurable rainfall will be over the Allegheny Mtns, while downsloping westerly flow results in a very low chance of measurable rain across the Susq Valley. Despite a good deal of cloudiness (especially southern Pa), return southerly southerly flow should push readings into the 40s to lower 50s by Mon afternoon. Warm front lifts toward PA Mon night, but biggest impact will be thickening of cloud cover, and maybe a sprinkle in spots.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prominent southwest to westerly flow will dominate the long term period with several shortwave trofs dropping into the central U.S. and providing chances for unsettled weather. Elongated low developing over the central U.S. on Tue will edge a warm frontal boundary toward the region, bringing chance for light precipitation and ushering in another round of warmer than normal temperatures (though not as high as the past few days). By Wed, upper wave catches up to the low, bringing a more significant rainfall, followed by a cold frontal passage. Colder and very breezy conditions then in store for late week in NW flow, along with sct lake effect snow showers in the NW Mtns. Cooler air lingers into the weekend as upper flow remains from the NW. Yet another weather system slides through the Great Lakes over the weekend, with center of low likely remaining to our north. The greatest shower chances are over the NW half of the CWA. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The Center of high pressure will slide by well to the south of PA this evening and drift off the Delmarva Coast late tonight. Mainly clear skies will occur early on with light west to southwest winds lasting through the mid morning hours Monday. An area of alto cu and alto stratus clouds (associated with a warm front) will move east-northeast from the Ohio River Valley and overspread mainly the southern half of Pennsylvania very late tonight through the mid morning hours Monday. This generally overcast mid-cloud layer will spread further northeast across the remainder of the state late Monday morning and Monday afternoon, followed by a lower and borderline MVFR stratocu cloud deck across southern PA Monday afternoon with scattered light rain showers. Warm front lifts toward PA Mon night, with MVFR cigs becoming likely in the west. But biggest impact will be thickening of cloud cover, and maybe a sprinkle in spots. Outlook... Mon...VFR. Tue-Wed...Rain showers/Sub-VFR reductions likely. LLWS poss. Wed night...Strong FROPA early with gusty winds. Thu-Fri...Sub-VFR likely west in sct snow showers. NW winds. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross/RXR NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/RXR LONG TERM...Ross/Gartner AVIATION...Lambert

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