Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250352 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1152 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE FRIDAY. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY BRINGING WET AND COOL WEATHER TO PENNSYLVANIA FOR PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... EVENING SATL LOOP SHOWING A BIT OF CIRRUS SPILLING OVR RIDGE INTO WESTERN PA...WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE EAST. WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD THICKENING MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A BAND OF -SHRA ALONG 8H BAROCLINIC ZONE OVR OHIO...WHICH SHOULD LIFT EAST ACROSS PA LATER TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE IN SPOTS...BUT DRY AIR BLW 3KFT SHOULD LIMIT THE CHC OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE TO LIMIT RAD COOLING AND POTENTIAL OF FROST ACROSS THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...WHERE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGINS TOMORROW. ATTM...AM BETTING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST...SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION PATCHY FROST OVR THE MID SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST CHC OF TEMPS REACHING THE L30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ANOMALOUS PWATS/SOUTHERLY LL JET OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHRA TO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HAVE RAMPED POPS UPWARD TO NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE W MTNS AND S TIER COUNTIES BASED ON 18Z GEFS AND OPER MDL RUNS. CURRENT TIMING SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING MY WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN AROUND NOON...WITH THE RAIN GENERALLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS QPF IS IN THE .25" - .50" RANGE FROM THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES ERODE THE ELEVATED STABILITY A BIT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A COOL AIR DAMMING SETUP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. I AM LEAVING OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A RUMBLE OR TWO IS HEARD BEFORE THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LEFT FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO WHAT WAS IN THE GRIDS. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING FRI NIGHT AS OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. THE HIGHEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NW. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. ON A COOL SIDE...AS SYSTEM TAPS SOME REAL COLD AIR TO THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY...MID SHIFT HAS A FEW SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE SW LATE. LEFT THESE IN...BUT DID ADJUST THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGHER POPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE. MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING OMEGA BLOCK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH UPPER LOWS OVR THE PLAINS AND EAST OF NEW ENG...WHILE PA IS IN A REGION OF RIDGING/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN. HOWEVER...OUR DRY WX IS LIKELY TO COME TO AN END LATER ON MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO DRAW A PLUME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD PA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY NOT BE THAT HIGH EARLY ON...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME FROM LATE MONDAY INTO THU. HEAVIEST QPF MAY BE LATER ON WED. DID UP POPS A LITTLE. WITH SE FLOW AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDS TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. MOST TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN MOVES IN. REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT. THERE STILL COULD BE LINGERING MVFR IN SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE WEST AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SWINGS BY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX. TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...GARTNER

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