Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 271059 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 659 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic will bring warm and increasingly humid conditions to the region into the holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Radar mosaic at 11Z showing isold showers across northeast Pa along axis of southerly ll jet. This feature and assoc shower threat is progged to weaken and lift out of the area later this morning, so will end mention of showers by arnd 12z. After a warm and tranquil morning, diurnal heating of moist airmass should yield sct pm, pulse-type convection. NCAR ensemble data indicating CAPEs surging to arnd 2000 J/kg, which could support locally isold strong wgusts/hail in best cells. However, wind fields and deep lyr shear are weak, indicating organized svr wx is unlikely. Although aftn Pops are blw 50 pct, what rain does fall could be locally heavy, due to slow storm motion and high PWATs. Convection-allowing mdls show this potential with local amts in excess of 2 inches possible. Mdl 850mb temps close to 16C are supportive of max temps today ranging from the l80s ovr the highest terrain, to nr 90F over the Susq Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Diurnally-driven convection should fall apart with loss of heating this evening. Partly cloudy skies and light wind could yield patchy fog tonight where ground is wet from pm showers. High dewpoints will lead to another very warm night with min temps in the mid 60s over much of the area. Subtropical ridge builds nwrd into Pa on Sat with 500mb height anomalies reaching 2SD across southeast Pa. The assoc warm temps aloft should suppress convection across the se counties Sat aftn. However, sct diurnal tsra again appear likely across the nw half of the state. Thermodynamic/kinematic profiles appear similar to Friday, with moderate CAPE and weak shear suggesting pulse-type convection and low risk of organized svr wx. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Summertime upper level ridge over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states is forecast to peak around 29/00z with above normal heights returning to normal by early next week. Temperatures should follow a similar trajectory with positive temp departures trending modestly lower/toward climatology into the first week of June. The tropical disturbance /Invest AL912016/ approaching the Southeast U.S. coast will add additional moisture to an already humid/unstable airmass in place through Memorial day weekend. Some interaction between the tropical disturbance and mid latitude trough crossing the Central Appalachians likely favors the greatest pcpn risk/potential pcpn coverage Sunday night into Memorial Day (Monday) with a decreasing chance for rain into Tuesday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in broad agreement in a dry period of weather from Tuesday into Wednesday before pcpn risk gradually increases into the second half of next week. Heights are forecast to rise a bit around the end of the period before the large scale pattern slowly shifts toward a western ridge/eastern trough configuration by June 5th as depicted by the 27/00z NAEFS and ECENS. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridge of high pressure remains in control. VFR conditions will continue in most locales...however as temperatures drop and winds go calm patchy fog/low stratocu should form. Most likely place for statocu toward sunrise will be in the western higher terrain... and fog formation will be most where rain fell on Wed afternoon. Could see a several hour period of IFR cigs over the NW mtns and poss Laurel Highlands as SREF prob data suggest. Any reducing conditions will lift and/or dissipate by 15z...with VFR prevailing on Friday. Another round of isolated/scattered daytime convection is possible mid/late afternoon and early evening, mainly in the south and east. OUTLOOK... Sat...Early am low cigs possible. Isold pm tsra impacts possible. Sun...Sct pm tsra impacts possible...mainly nw half. Mon...Sct pm tsra impacts possible...mainly se half. Tue...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...RXR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.