Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 310905 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 505 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS...INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WAVES OF FOG SEEM TO BE OCCURRING AS MANY LOCATIONS/OBS - INCLUDING OUT THE WINDOW - HAVE A RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG FOR THE MORNING IN THE CENTRAL COS WHERE IT RAINED THE MOST YESTERDAY. IR AND WV LOOPS DEPICT A RATHER CONSOLIDATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAN EARLIER PROGS HAVE SHOWN. THE ONLY CLUSTERS OF TSRA AT 09Z ARE TO OUR NORTH AND MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEAST. NEWEST ECHOES POPPING OVER THE MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE AREA ARE HEADED EAST. THIS COULD STRAFE THE NRN TIER AS THE SUN RISES. WORKING OFF THE PREMISE OF A MORE COMPACT AREA OF FORCING AND NOT TWO SEPARATE VORT MAXIMA...THERE SHOULD BE A QUICKER EXIT TO THE MAIN BUNCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE MID- DAY HOURS. SO THERE MIGHT BE CONVECTION FORM AS THE TAIL END OF THE FORCING PRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT LOW CHC POPS STILL A GOOD IDEA FOR MUCH OF DAY...INCHING OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNSET. GOOD SUNSHINE THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TEMPS GET A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN WED - VERY NEAR NORMAL IN THE SRN TIER BUT STILL 5-10F BELOW NORMAL IN THE REST OF THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A MINOR CHC OF A SHOWER IN THE NRN TIER IN THE EVENING. WILL JUST LEAVE A 20 POP THERE FOR THE TIME BEING WHILE DROPPING POPS OFF IN THE EAST. WINDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAIN SRLY AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATES UP TO THE NORTHEAST - ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. BUT THE YIN OF RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A YANG OF A DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO THE NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS PWATS RISE ON GOOD POLEWARD FLOW AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE DURATION AND PLACEMENT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVER THE SE AT 06Z...WITH NEW AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RIDING NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. IT APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...THOUGH ISOLATE SHOWERS POSS MAINLY IN WESTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT /ESP NEAR KJST/. WITH EARLIER RAINS...CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME DROPS IN VSBY IN FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPACTS VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM SITE TO SITE. A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THE FIRST HALF OF THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER NEW YORK...AND LIKELY SNEAKING INTO THE NORTHERN MTNS /KBFD/ AS WELL. OUTLOOK... THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR

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