Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 172050
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
350 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017
A ridge of high pressure will slide east across the commonwealth
tonight and Saturday. An extended period of mild weather will
extend through this weekend into most of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Surface ridge axis propogating eastward this afternoon from the
Ohio Valley. Variable amounts of mid level clouds are all that
we expect tonight as a dry warm front lifts across the area.
Mins will be seasonably mild...ranging from the lower to mid 30s
central and west...and upper 20s east.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure ridge will flatten slightly as it moves
from the Middle Atlantic coast to the offshore waters on
Saturday. This will bring mild westerlies across the
commonwealth bringing a surge in temperatures and a lovely
February afternoon. Highs should eclipse 60F across much of
southern and southeastern PA...with low to mid 50s expected over
a large part of central and even north central PA. The far north
should top out near 50F Saturday afternoon.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The mild temperatures will continue through the extended
forecast as no cold air push in sight. The warmest readings will
come on Sat/Sun and again from Wed-Fri. High temperatures in
general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min
temperatures mainly above freezing.
A very weak cold front will push across the region Sat night.
However, it has little to no mid level moisture to work with, so
may see a light shower from the Laurels across the southern
tier, but otherwise no precipitation is expected.
Rather strong ridge builds in for early next week. Surface ridge
axis splitting the region will bring a bit of northerly/
northeast flow to eastern sections, supressing temps a bit (but
still remaining well above average).
Weak system slides by to the north Tue night, and brings quick
chance for showers. Flow turns SW by Wed as temps rebound.
Pattern becomes more amplified late week as a system over the
central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds
will increase late week, with warm front lifting through Thu
into Fri - bringing increasing rain chances heading into the
-- End Changed Discussion --
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conds will prevail for the rest of the day...as variable
layered mid level clouds stream over the region as a dry warm
front lifts across the region through tonight. LLWS is possible
Sat...VFR/No sig wx.
Sun...MVFR cigs psbl NW 1/3. -RA psbl near PA/MD border in the
Mon-Tue. VFR/No sig wx during the day. MVFR at night with chc
Wed...MVFR early with chc shra.