Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 232052 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 352 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO CAPE COD TONIGHT. AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE CHRISTMAS EVE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. ANOTHER LESS POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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H5 HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING NICELY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT YOU WOULDN`T KNOW IT FROM SFC CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. BLEAK MIDWINTER LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S CONTINUE TO PLAGUE US...WHILE WEAK COASTAL LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST NJ COAST. MILDER AIR ALOFT IS FLOODING OVERHEAD...MAINTAINING THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG...BUT SOME MIXING IS REACHING WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PREVENTING DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY...A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROF WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MID TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED...AS A WARM FRONT IS NUDGED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U30S TO MID 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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A RIBBON OF HIGHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING SOAKING RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST PA...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES...BEFORE WARM SECTOR AND DRY SLOT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS INDICATING A QUALL LINE TO ACCOMPANY SFC COLD FRONT LAGGING THE UPPER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTENT OF SURFACE DESTABLIZATION WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW STRONG THIS SQUALL LINE CAN GET...AND HOW STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE AT THE SURFACE...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY ONE OF THE BETTER SEVERE WEATHER SETUPS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE IS IN STORE FROM EARLY WED EVENING THROUGH JUST PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EVEN MINIMAL CAPE COMBINED WITH STRONG /DEEP- LAYER WIND FIELDS A FEW TO SVRL KFT AGL OFTEN RESULTS IN A NCFRB WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURST DAMAGE OCCURRING BENEATH MINI BOWS IN THE LINE. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF CENTRAL PA IN MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR DAY 2 AS A RESULT. MORE DETAILS BELOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT...AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. WARMEST TEMPS MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR WEST.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SSWRLY UPPER JET OF 140-150 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE CFROPA IN THE 04-10Z TIME PERIOD CHRISTMAS DAY. IN ADDITION...THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A RIBBON OF CAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. FOR NOW...HAVE CHC OF THUNDER IN FOR WED EVENING. NORMALLY I WOULD BE MORE CONCERN ABOUT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT BEST FORCING ACROSS THE OH VLY. ALSO TIME OF DAY NOT THE BEST. HOWEVER...HINTS OF COLD AIR DAMMING STILL ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. EITHER WAY...NORMALLY LIKE TO SEE DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S. STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AM...MOST LIKELY WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY...BUT STILL THIRD PERIOD. TOOK SNOW OUT OF FCST FOR CHRISTMAS...TEMPS NOT COLD ENOUGH. FRIDAY LOOKS NICE...WITH SW FLOW. DID UP TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT...GIVEN RISING HEIGHTS. CUT BACK PCPN FOR LATE FRIDAY. 12Z EC RUN HAS SYSTEM FURTHER NW NOW...BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AGAIN WITH SPLIT FLOW...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE FOR A SOUTHERN WAVE TO BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA AT TIMES...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANYTHING WOULD BE FAST MOVING. PERHAPS A CHANGE LATER NEXT WEEK...AS CROSS POLAR FLOW SETS UP.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS CONTINUE WITH ENTIRE CWA REMAINING AT IFR/LIFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDS IN FROM THE SE FROM A WEAK LOW NEAR DELMARVA. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH CIGS LIFTING SLIGHTLY (PERHAPS TO MVFR) IN THE FAR SW. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATE AFTERNOON BUT FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS AGAIN DROP FURTHER TONIGHT AS EVEN HIGHER PWAT AIR MOVES IN ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. RAIN ALSO SPREADS IN FROM W TO E STARTING MID TO LATE EVENING. OUTLOOK... WED...PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. SLGT CHC TSTM NW. BREEZY. LLWS LIKELY. THU...WINDY AND COLDER WITH SCT MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN. LLWS. FRI...FAIR AND MOSTLY VFR. SAT...FAIR AND MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHSN WITH LOCAL REDUCTIONS NW. SUN...MVFR TO IFR WITH CHC RA/SN...ESP SOUTH. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR

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