Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 172050 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 350 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will slide east across the commonwealth tonight and Saturday. An extended period of mild weather will extend through this weekend into most of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Surface ridge axis propogating eastward this afternoon from the Ohio Valley. Variable amounts of mid level clouds are all that we expect tonight as a dry warm front lifts across the area. Mins will be seasonably mild...ranging from the lower to mid 30s central and west...and upper 20s east. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure ridge will flatten slightly as it moves from the Middle Atlantic coast to the offshore waters on Saturday. This will bring mild westerlies across the commonwealth bringing a surge in temperatures and a lovely February afternoon. Highs should eclipse 60F across much of southern and southeastern PA...with low to mid 50s expected over a large part of central and even north central PA. The far north should top out near 50F Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The mild temperatures will continue through the extended forecast as no cold air push in sight. The warmest readings will come on Sat/Sun and again from Wed-Fri. High temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures mainly above freezing. A very weak cold front will push across the region Sat night. However, it has little to no mid level moisture to work with, so may see a light shower from the Laurels across the southern tier, but otherwise no precipitation is expected. Rather strong ridge builds in for early next week. Surface ridge axis splitting the region will bring a bit of northerly/ northeast flow to eastern sections, supressing temps a bit (but still remaining well above average). Weak system slides by to the north Tue night, and brings quick chance for showers. Flow turns SW by Wed as temps rebound. Pattern becomes more amplified late week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase late week, with warm front lifting through Thu into Fri - bringing increasing rain chances heading into the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conds will prevail for the rest of the day...as variable layered mid level clouds stream over the region as a dry warm front lifts across the region through tonight. LLWS is possible after 18/00z. Outlook... Sat...VFR/No sig wx. Sun...MVFR cigs psbl NW 1/3. -RA psbl near PA/MD border in the morning. Mon-Tue. VFR/No sig wx during the day. MVFR at night with chc shra. Wed...MVFR early with chc shra. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DeVoir/Steinbugl

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