Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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407 FXUS61 KCTP 162052 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 352 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will settle south of the region tonight allowing high pressure to build into the region through Saturday. A new storm system will develop over the southeast states and track off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday night and early Sunday. Much warmer conditions are expected to make a return next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... The back edge of the rain is quickly tapering to scattered showers, with a few snowflakes being observed over the Laurel Highlands. Hydro concerns continue for a couple of river points and probably at any number of isolated small streams and creeks as runoff from the rain and snowmelt continues into the evening. Overall water levels will begin to to fall. The river points at Shirleysburg and Williamsburg are expected to crest this evening and fall back below flood around or just after midnight. Drier and colder air will continue to move into the CWA overnight. Lows in the 20s will actually average several deg warmer than normal. After a bright start, clouds will thicken with snow overspreading the area from SW to NE during the afternoon hours. The SPC HREF suggests this will be mainly a southern and southeastern PA storm so I went with the highest pops along and just north of the Mason-Dixon line and tapered things off toward NRN PA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The meat of the storm looks to be during a fairly small window from later Saturday through about midnight Sunday (Saturday night). The deepest moisture/best PWAT anomaly is made to scoot rather quickly off the Mid Atlantic coast south of the PA border. The SREF is more generous with the QPF while the GEFS doesn`t offer snow lovers nearly as much joy. The 12Z ECENS is pretty solid in the 2-4 inch range with maybe a tad more over the Laurels where some upslope could locally enhance amounts. Being mainly a 3rd period event, we chose to wait for later shifts to evaluate the need for any headlines. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Guidance continues to show a building anomalous upper ridge along the east coast next week. A period of rain appears likely Monday, as surface warm front lifts slowly through the area. After that, model guidance indicates central Pa will break into the warm sector with near record high temps possible Tue/Wed. Upper ridge is progged to weaken a bit late in the week with a cold front passage and associated showers likely Wed night or Thursday. Drier and cooler conditions appear likely Friday, but medium range guidance still indicating above normal heights across the eastern conus and ECENS MOS at least 10 deg above normal Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Widespread sub VFR conditions will gradually improve as drier air works in behind the cold front. As is usual this time of year, expect JST and BFD to hang on to lower conditions the longest. Expect most terminals to be or go VFR by mid to late afternoon while JST/BFD will likely not improve until early evening. The gusty NW wind will diminish overnight as high pressure moves into the flying area. Then attention will turn to a weak and fast moving low pressure center forecast to develop over eastern NC Saturday afternoon, then track northeast off the NJ coast overnight into Sunday morning. This will likely bring fairly extensive MVFR/IFR with snow later in the day Saturday through early Sunday morning. Outlook... Sun...Clearing, but A.M. restrictions west. Mon-Wed...Restrictions likely in periods of rain, especially NW half. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for PAZ024-033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte

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