Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230900 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 500 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL FUNNEL MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY ON A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO CU COVERED THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81 EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY MAINLY SCATTERED OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY TODAY. ANOTHER 2 OR 3 DEG C OF COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE BLYR TODAY...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL..AND VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MTNS /INVOF KBFD/ TO KEEP THE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY JUST ABV FREEZING. HOURLY TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH SUNRISE MINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS.. AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS. AN OCCASIONAL -SHRASN WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SE AS THE I-99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR FROM KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT...WITH JUST SPRINKLES FOR THE MOST PART FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS. COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE W MTNS. HOWEVER...DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE 40S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB. DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW. LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AND ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO FLYING INTERESTS. MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW WIND. OUTLOOK... WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW WINDS. THU...VFR. NO SIG WX. FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA. SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON /WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS/. SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/. POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT

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