Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 141203 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 803 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The low clouds will begin to break up today as high pressure moves off into the northern Atlantic and a southerly flow develops ahead of an advancing cold front. The cold front will push through later Sunday. Blustery weather is in store for Monday, but temperatures will rebound to normal on Tuesday and continue to rise in the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... All is well. Clouds have pushed west to cover even more of wrn PA. Misty/drizzly weather still going in the east. Conditions should improve slowly. Prev... Clouds still where they were 24 hours ago. Nighttime microphysics GOES-16 image shows them ending in a very sharp line which is almost exactly the western border of the CWA. The wind is just light and variable right now, and we don`t foresee any big push from the south as the high pressure moves farther off shore. Thus, any clearing will occur very slowly and from the outside in today. A little drizzle is likely hanging on and will continue to mention it, esp in the E this morning. Have made the sky cover grids just a little less optimistic than prev, but still may be too quick to break them up. Have lingered low crud into the aftn in the NC mtns. Thus, the temps have worked themselves downward a deg or two as well. But, today should be quite an improvement than the last couple of days. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The southerly flow should turn into a foe tonight as the moisture ascends the mountains again, it will begin to cloud up again. The thickest clouds by morning on Sunday will be in the NE zones. Mixing should again help them break up before a cold front arrives from the west. The front is being driven very steadily by a good push of cold from out of the northern Rockies. The system is progressive. It has some moisture flow from the Gulf, but it has to come a long way around the elongated upper high over the srn states. Thus, the moisture flow will likely be drying up as it moves through PA. Temps rise on Sunday, but maybe not quite as much as has been advertised lately. Will only knock a deg or two off the going maxes due to the clouds over the NE. But, some deeper mixing should tap 8H temps in the teens C. The flow ahead of the front is more swrly than srly, so less and less convergence will be had as it moves in/through. The timing is rather solid with showers arriving in the NW after noon, and passing all the way through the central mtns before sunset. Any showers which survive the trip downslope into the SE counties will have little rainfall left to drop. +16C 8H temps Sunday around noon in the NW will drop below zero by the end of the night. The chill and NW winds will make it quite a change. Mins will get down to about 40F on the hills of the west Monday AM. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday, We`ll see maxes about 5-8F below normal with highs ranging from the U40s to L50s across the mtns, to around 60F in the SE. As the mid-level thermal trough crosses the region Monday, isolated to scattered instability (and lake effect) showers will occur across the NW Mtns and Laurel Highlands, with just some sprinkles accompanying expanding MDT cu clouds in the afternoon elsewhere. A cold night is in store for Monday night/early Tuesday as the center of a 1030 mb high passes near or just to the south of the CWA with clear, and calm conditions with -1 to -2 sigma PWATs. Expect fairly widespread frost across much of Central and Northern PA and even sub-freezing conditions across the perennial cold spots INVOF KBFD. Some clouds from a passing vort max late Mon night could keep temps up, but will keep forecast continuity high. For the mid to late week period, heights gradually rise with a multi-model consensus indicating a string of dry and increasingly warm days and mainly clear/cool nights. We could have a period true Indian Summer weather with high temps in the 60s to 70s Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A moist southeast flow from the Atlantic Ocean will keep persistent low clouds over central PA airspace this morning. Current observations and model guidance/soundings support predominantly IFR/MVFR conditions this morning. A weakening southeast flow should result in breaking clouds across the airspace this afternoon. MVFR cigs are likely to hang on until early afternoon, with LVFR conditions likely by late in the day. A return of low clouds/fog is possible late tonight into early Sunday morning - especially over the eastern 1/2 of the airspace. Increasing southwest flow ahead of front approaching from the Great Lakes will result in LLWS at BFD after 06Z. Outlook... Sun...AM low cigs/fog possible eastern 1/2. Breezy. PM FROPA/wind shift, accompanied by brief showers/vis reductions. Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue-Wed...Patchy AM fog possible.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Lambert/RXR AVIATION...Steinbugl

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