Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 142127 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 527 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak disturbances aloft will pass through the region over the next day or so. Fair and less humid weather will return for midweek before a new frontal system approaches the area Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A weak area of low pressure, located over Virginia early this evening, will track south of the region overnight. At 21Z, most of the showers are confined to the Mason Dixon Line, while a few sprinkles were noted as far north as the central mountains. Increasing isentropic lift expected later this evening, as strengthening southerly low level jet lifts across the area. A blend of latest near term model output supports the highest (likely) POPs this evening from the south central mountains northeast into the Middle Susq Valley. Across the northwest mountains, some modest CAPE combined with approach of shortwave over the Grt Lks could support a couple showers/tstorms over Warren/Mckean counties this evening. Mostly cloudy skies and a southerly breeze should hold temps up tonight, with mins mostly in the 60s. The exception will be across the northwest mountains, where evening cu will gradually diminish to mostly clear skies. The resulting radiational cooling should promote areas of valley fog over the northwest mountains late tonight, as depicted by the SREF and NAMDNG. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A surface and upper trough will slide across upstate New York during the day Tuesday. The models develop some weak instability so the chance of a shower or thunderstorm cannot be dismissed, but overall drier air will begin to work into the state so conditions will be improving the deeper into the day we get. Highs will be several deg warmer than today, averaging in the 80s in most areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday continues to look dry for now. However, the remnants of a weak cold front from the north drops southward toward the area. 00Z EC showed a low with strong warm advection for Thursday. The EC was deeper than faster with the low on Thu. Some variation with guidance with the end of the week. For now, did edge the POPS up some for Sunday and Sunday Night, to line up with others, the blend, and timing of the front better. Did not want to go too high, as events lately are largely clusters of convection. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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TAFS adjusted for current conditions as of 5 PM. Few showers across the far south, given sharp dewpoint boundary to the south. Earlier discussion below. VFR with areas of MVFR ceilings over western higher elevations will continue into tonight. Southerly flow will help push increasing moisture into the region, with low clouds and fog expected to redevelop later this evening and especially after midnight, into the morning hours of Tuesday. The low clouds and fog will gradually lift Tuesday morning with most areas improving to VFR by mid day. A stray shower or thunderstorms with brief local restrictions will be possible. .OUTLOOK... Wed...VFR. No sig wx. Thu-Fri...VFR. Sct Tstm impacts likely. Sat...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte/Martin

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