Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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826 FXUS61 KCTP 290824 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 424 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will push across the region late Sunday and Monday. The heavy rain and deep tropical moisture from the tropical cyclone nearing SC tonight should stay more along the coast this weekend. However, some constant moderate rainfall is possible in the Lower Susquehanna Valley on Sunday Night. High pressure will build into the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... A warm and tranquil night is underway beneath anomalous upper lvl ridge. Just a few -shra still showing up on radar at 0530Z, which should die off shortly after 06z. Expect patchy fog to develop during the pre-dawn hours where rain fell yesterday, mainly across the Allegheny Plateau. Temps on track to bottom out in the mid to upper 60s in most places. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Sunday will feature increasing cirrus, as high lvl moisture is drawn northward from ts bonnie. The increasing clouds will hold temps down a bit, but enough heating/destabilization is expected to lead to isolated/scattered pm convection popping off along the spine of the Alleghenies. All 00z guidance now pointing toward a dry day across the se counties beneath ridging and assoc lg scale subsidence. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Still looks like the highest pops would be Sunday night. A plume of tropical moisture lifting up the coast could bring a brief shot of heavy rain to the eastern areas Sunday Night. Models have things clearing out on Monday. Looking warm but mainly dry for the period Tuesday into Wed...as the cold front moves se of our area. Chance of showers and storms increase later Thursday into Friday...as a cold front moves se. Cooler weather to follow the front. For Monday into Friday...just made minor changes to the package. Took the superblend and made minor adjustments to next Saturday. Looks like a weak wave may lift ne along the cold front. Adjusted superblend pops a little to fit in. Pattern trying to set up for the week after next would favor a cooler and wetter cycle again. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A trough of low pressure will push across the region late Sunday into Monday. For the remainder of the overnight under the upper level ridge, expect VFR conditions to continue in most locations though MVFR /and brief isolated IFR/ vsbys will impact areas that received rain yesterday - mainly the Allegheny Plateau and isolated spots in the central and east. Sunday will feature increasing cirrus, as high level moisture is drawn northward from TS Bonnie. Enough heating/destabilization is expected to lead to isolated/scattered mainly afternoon convection along the spine of the Alleghenies. Guidance continues to point toward a dry day across the SE counties beneath ridging and assoc lg scale subsidence. Through much of the afternoon reducing conditions should be contained to the western and central TAF sites. As impacts from approaching trough move eastward Sunday evening and especially night, the eastern TAF sites will likely see periods of MVFR in a moderate rain and isolated TSRA as slight connection to tropical system develops. A chance of showers and isolated TSRA continues into Monday mainly in the east, followed by high pressure building into the region through midweek. OUTLOOK... Mon...Sct tsra impacts poss east. Tue-Thu...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Synopsis...Dangelo Near Term...Fitzgerald Short Term...Dangelo/Fitzgerald Long Term...Martin Aviation...RXR

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