Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 280932 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 532 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...BUT GENERALLY DRY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL HEAD ENE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND BRING AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/UVVEL UP AN OVER A QUASI STNRY BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WILL BE THE RESULT TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY -DZ/SPRINKLES (THAT WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND BEING REPORTED BY SPOTTERS) OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS RESULTING IN RAP SFC-850 RH VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT. THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE THE SW HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING ...AND BEGIN IN THE 17-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE REGION NE OF KIPT PER A BLEND OF THE LATEST 00Z OPER GUIDANCE...03Z SREF AND HRRR. EARLIER THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALONG WITH LGT NERLY SFC WIND ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHILE READINGS IN THE M/U40S WERE COMMON ELSEWHERE. BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL. BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST 03Z SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AGAIN..MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM HOURS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES. BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MOIST EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OTHER PLACES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID ELSEWHERE. MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS I HAVE SEEN LATELY. INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AND MOST CENTRAL PA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CALMER WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOW LEVEL STRATO CU TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...AOO...MDT AND LNS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN 07Z TO 12Z. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.