Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 181537 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1137 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Above average warmth and dry weather will continue through the weekend, adding to one of the warmest starts to October on record. The dry spell will end early next week, followed by a cooler weather pattern leading up to Halloween. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Big bubble no trouble. Sunny day a good 5F warmer than yesterday with lighter winds. Another clear comfortable autumn night. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A bit warmer still on Thursday. A wave weakens the high a bit and the gradient is a bit stronger so could be a bit more windy. But the high builds back in as the wave, well up in Canada passes by. It does drag some slightly cooler air in Thursday afternoon into early Friday. But warm air with above normal 850 hPa temperatures is poised to move in behind the rebuilding high Friday for a warm late-day Friday and probably a warmer still Saturday. Enjoy the fine weather is the key here. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will support above average temperatures through the weekend. This will further add to the anomalous October warmth which should help to secure a spot in the top-10 warmest Octobers - if not top 5 or even #1. Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble systems continue to indicate a pattern flip by the middle of next week with a period of colder (near/below normal) temperatures starting around October 25th. The depth and longevity of the emerging upper trough and subsequent cooler pattern remains in question - so we will have to wait and see how much of a dent it can put in the strongly positive month-to-date departures from climatology. On the precipitation side, the prolonged dry spell ends early next week as a cold front moves across the Appalachians. Stream separation differences/closed low development in some of the deterministic models leads to increasing spread and thus uncertainty in the forecast details such as timing. The GOM will be open for moisture inflow northward ahead of the front. So will keep continuity and favor max POPs in the Monday night- early Tuesday timeframe. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will dominate our weather through most of this period. Mostly sunny and minimal clouds during the day. Mostly clear nights with some patchy fog in low-lying valleys and near river and other water bodies. Winds will be light most of the period. A weak front could increase winds a bit Thursday afternoon and evening. Big bubble no trouble should be the general rule through Sunday. Outlook... Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected. Fri-Sun...Mainly VFR, with just some patchy AM valley fog. && .CLIMATE... Month-to-date, October 2017 is the warmest October on record at Harrisburg and Williamsport. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Grumm SHORT TERM...Grumm LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Grumm CLIMATE...

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