Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 232143 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 543 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY...LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE D.C. AREA. TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAXES FOR THE DAY...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND 70F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS (NEAR...TO SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY). CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM ONCE AGAIN WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS AND SFC DEWPOINTS TO ALL TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID-UPR 30S UP NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY MORNING. 12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASNG PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE CLOUD FREE SKIES...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...AND EXCELLENT VSBY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME PATCHY FLAT CU IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AREAS OF THIN CIRRUS STREAKING BY. VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. TUE-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE WRN MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN AVIATION...LAMBERT

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