Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 291910
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
310 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
A weak cold front will sag slowly south through the region today.
High pressure will bring another period of warmer than normal and
mainly dry weather into Wednesday. A new cold front will move
across the commonwealth Wednesday followed by a refreshingly
cooler airmass with low humidity Thursday through Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Other than a small area of slightly enhanced cumulus along the
Mason-Dixon line, the only sign of a front is the gradual
decrease in dewpoints from south to north across the region.
Earlier thinking was that the deeper moisture and weak
convergence associated with the very diffuse boundary along the
southern border could spark off an isolated storm or two, and that
still could happen, but overall I have backed off the pops to
reflect the latest guidance showing mainly dry conditions.
High temps this afternoon will vary from near 80 across the NW
Mountains to around 90 in the southern valleys.
High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes/southern Canada
tonight, providing clear skies and a diminishing breeze. There
will likely be some valley fog, but the extent may be limited as
lower dewpoints continue to filter into the region. Climatology
and examination of Latest HREF supports the idea of patchy dense
fog in the deep river/stream valleys north of I-80 between 06Z-
Lows will drop back into the 50s (40s in the normal cold spots) over
central and northern areas, with lower 60s over the far south.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure will be overhead Tuesday with mainly clear skies
and very low PWAT air for late August (of 0.5 to 0.75 of an inch).
Should provide for a warm day with very tolerable humidity.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from
a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to
a weak upper-level trough by mid to late week. As a result,
above-normal temperatures through the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe
will transition to near or a little below normal by the end of the
Medium range guidance agrees with a second-stronger cold front
pushing SE across the area Wednesday afternoon/early Wed night,
with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms.
This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next
week and into Saturday. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s
Thursday into the weekend over the northern and western higher
terrain, with low to mid 80s elsewhere as an upper trough
amplifies from central Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont.
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will move out of the lower Gr Lakes into the
airspace later today and overnight bringing widespread VFR.
Patchy fog and low clouds will once again be possible late
tonight into early Tuesday morning. The clouds and fog will burn
off quickly with VFR expected in all areas by mid to late morning.
Tue...Patchy AM fog, then VFR.
Wed...Sct PM TS impacts possible.
Thu-Sat...No sig wx expected.
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte