Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 262042 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 442 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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LOW LVL INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF/COLD POOL ALOFT PRODUCING EXTENSIVE STRATOCU ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE DRY SLOT OF LOW-PWAT AIR RESULTING IN MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS LANCASTER CO AND THE REST OF SE PA. SCT SHRA AFFECTING NORTHERN PA AT 20Z...AIDED BY LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF I-80. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80...CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN APPEARS VERY LOW THIS EVENING. COOLING/STABILIZING BLYR LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD CAUSE ANY SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE MARKEDLY AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE MORE IN THE WAY OF VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE CENTRAL AREAS...WITH SKIES LIKELY SCATTERING OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A PATTERN MORE REMINISCENT OF THE COLD SEASON THAN LATE SUMMER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SLOW WARMING DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WEAK COLD ADVECTION MEANS THAT STRATOCU CEILINGS SIMILAR TO TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LAST PART OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER THAN NORMAL SIDE IN THE 60S AND 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE TEMPS UP A LITTLE NEXT WEEK. LEFT SHOWERS IN FOR SUNDAY...AS THEY WERE IN THE FCST...AND SOME MODELS SHOW A SYSTEM TO THE NW MOVING SE. MOST MEMBERS KEEP IT DRY. 00Z/26 EC SHOWS A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE 12Z/25 EC AND OTHER MODELS HAD A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN SUNDAY...WEATHER LOOKS GREAT INTO NEXT WEEK...AS IT REMAINS ON THE DRY SIDE...AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SE...AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS INDICATED...THEN THIS WOULD KEEP ANY STORMY WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL PA. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT BRADFORD...WITH HIGHER BASED CEILINGS DOMINATING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. BRADFORD SHOULD POP UP TO VFR FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG LATE AT NIGHT BUT ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE AGAIN BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE PATTERN THURSDAY AND PROVIDE FAIR WX/VFR INTO THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE. MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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