Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260657 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 257 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST AND TRACK OVER NRN PA/WRN NY STATE TODAY. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL RIDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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SFC STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KCLE...ENE TO KELZ AND KELM AT 06Z. EARLIER (AND PRESENT) CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA HAS LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED/LOW-TOPPED TSRA WERE SLIDING EAST ALONG THIS OUTLFOW BOUNDARY EARLY TODAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIP COVERED THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL STAY QUITE MILD...IN THE 50S...TO NEAR 60F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT SOME 15 TO 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF THE LOW-TOPPED TSRA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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SFC FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER THIS MORNING... BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AS COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. CONVECTION SHOULD STEADILY EXPAND FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA AS MILDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR PUSHES NE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A 2-3 SIGMA 850MB WESTERLY JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND WILL SUPPORT AN INITIALLY COMACT AREA OF 3-4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX. THIS AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SFC CFRONT WILL COVER ABOUT THE SE THIRD OF THE STATE AT 18Z. THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE DEMARCATION LINE BETWEEN MDTLY HIGH ML CAPES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. SPC`S DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK AREA COVERS THE SE HALF OF PENN...BUT UPGRADED FAR SERN PENN (INCLUDING YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES) TO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COMING IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ATTRIBUTED TO 30-50 KT WINDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING. MODELS SHOWING LOCAL PREFRONTAL 1000 J/KG CAPES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. TOTAL FCST RAINFALL FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TODAY WAS PAINTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN A GEFS/SREF BLEND ACROSS APPROX THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GIVEN THE 6 HOURLY TOTALS THAT OCCURRED WITH THE MCS NOW TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND FAR NWRN OHIO. COOL AIR REACHES THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHS THERE ONLY REACHING NEAR 60F. FARTHER SOUTH ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE SEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WED LOOKS DRY AND COOLER...AS A NE FLOW OF DRY AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM A LARGE HIGH OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA OUT OF WV MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS STILL ON FRIDAY. LEFT POPS IN. STILL SOME HINTS OF A JET MAX DROPPING SE ON SAT...BUT REALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS STILL EXPECT THE DAY TO BE DRY. MID SHIFT HAD SOME SHOWERS IN FOR LATER ON SUNDAY. YESTERDAY THE EC WAS TOO FAST...STILL THAT WAY TODAY. LEFT POPS IN BUT DID LOWER SOME FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT..DID EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE. LOOKS WET AND COOL FOR MONDAY. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE SUPERBLEND WITH THE POPS. CLEARING OUT LATER MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER THAN WE HAVE HAD LATELY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE STORMS CONTINUE TO FADE AS THEY REACH THE DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF STORMS OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MORNING...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 09Z. THAT LINE WILL BRING MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TO BFD...JST...UNV AND AOO. WITH MVFR POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRIER AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES. THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA TUE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND HAVE PUT LLWS FOR AOO...JST...BFD AND UNV BETWEEN 09Z TO 14Z. OUTLOOK... WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY. SAT...FAIR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU

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