Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 301301 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 801 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING... DELIVERING BITTERLY COLD AIR TO RUSH BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT... WITH SOME 10 TO 20 BELOW WIND CHILLS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN... CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ARCTIC FRONT RACED THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SHOWERS OF VARYING INTENSITY ARE PRECEDINGAND ACCOMPANYING FROPA...AND UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT UPSTREAM BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND SOUTHWEST PA...AND THESE WILL WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER KPIT AT THIS HOUR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN CANCELLED OVER THE NORTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COLDER DAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES. MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN THEIR HIGHS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY MAY RISE A TICK BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STAY STEADY OR FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... COLLABORATED A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SUSQ (ADAMS...LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES) FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING...MAINLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION WIND GUST POTENTIAL. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE ARE WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING...SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE. WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. CONSENSUS BUILDING FOR A MODERATE SNOWSTORM TO AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL PA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOUCHED UP QPF AND SNOWFALL GRIDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME...INDICATING AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE IS FOR CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE SWEET SPOT...AND IT APPEARS THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS AN INCREASING THREAT GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. STILL TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCES FOR FOR A 5TH PERIOD AND BEYOND EVENT. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED. HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IFR AT BFD AND JST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS POST FRONTAL SNOW BANDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS. THE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY CONTINUES BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AT AOO AND LNS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BEFORE WEAKENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-033-037-041-042- 045-046-049-051>053-058. WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ064>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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