Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 231449
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1049 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
High pressure will pass over Pennsylvania today. A warm front
will lift into the region Friday, then oscillate in the vicinity
of Pennsylvania through early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Temperatures still quite chilly at mid morning after the chilly
start...thanks to sfc high over southeast PA. Southerly flow
will develop later today as the high moves offshore...allowing
temps to rebound significantly.
Highs will still be below average but it should feel noticeably
warmer this afternoon with very light surface winds and plenty
of late March sunshine bringing peak temps in the 40s over much
of the area. The higher terrain of northeast Pa, where snow
still covers the ground, will likely not make it out of the 30s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley will spread
increasing clouds across the region tonight, with light
rain/fzra likely toward dawn across the western half of the
state. The increasing cloud cover and southerly breeze should
cause temps to bottom out around 06Z, with rising temps toward
dawn. However, model soundings and SREF probability charts still
suggest there will likely be enough cold air near ground level
to support a period of light fzra across parts of central Pa
between 09Z-15Z, with emphasis over the northern mountains. Per
coordination with adjacent offices, have held off on an
advisory based on confidence levels below 80pct. Will highlight
the threat to the Fri morning commute in the HWO.
WAA lifts north of the region with 850mb baroclinic zone by
midday Friday, indicating a dry and warmer afternoon across the
area. Models indicate surface warm front will work into the
central counties late in the day, pushing temps well into the
50s, while areas east of IPT and LNS will likely remain in the
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models and ensembles continue to show a series of upper
troughs progressing onshore from the Eastern Pacific and across
the Southwest/South-Central Plains before deamplifying as they
move east of the MS River. The first of 3 upper troughs emerges
from the Southern Plains and crosses into the MS Valley Sunday
and continues to weaken as surface frontal wave translates
downstream crossing the OH Valley/Great Lakes into the northern
Mid Atlantic states by Monday. Blend of NBM/ECENS/WPC still
indicating max POPs in the Sunday-Sunday timeframe.
Above average temperatures are expected over the weekend with
the warmest day likely on Saturday with some sites approaching
70F over southern PA. Sunday should be markedly cooler behind
a backdoor cold front and a likelihood of rain. However, above
average temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely
through early next week, as 00Z GEFS indicates Pa remains
beneath a mean upper level ridge and plume of anomalous PWATs.
The chance of showers will spike with passage of next shortwave
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread VFR flying through the period. High to mid level
clouds will increase tonight with surface winds veering to
90-160 degrees. Light precip will likely move across the
airspace between 06-18z Friday, starting as RA/FZRA/PL before
transitioning to all RA by 15z Friday. Added PROB30 group to
hedge toward brief period of ice mix around daybreak Friday.
Fri...VFR/MVFR. Pcpn ending after 18z.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain northern 1/2 airspace.
Sun-Mon...Sub-VFR with periods of rain.
Minimum temperature records for 3/23 at select sites:
MDT: 14 in 1934
IPT: 8 in 1906
BFD: 5 in 1959
AOO: 15 in 1960