Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 180002 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 802 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge is likely to remain over the region for the next week, resulting in warm and generally dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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00Z radar loop showing a few lingering showers across the Middle Susq Valley. Upper trough axis has shifted east of the region and there is no large scale forcing to sustain these diurnally-driven showers past sunset, so expect them to rapidly dissipate between 00Z-02Z. Clearing skies and a calm wind will promote areas of valley fog late tonight, some of which will be dense. Min temps will range from the upper 50s in the coolest valleys of the Alleghenies, to the mid 60s over parts of the Susq Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Monday will start off with the valley fog burning off to a partly-mostly sunny afternoon. Upper ridge axis, which has been over the eastern Grt Lks the last couple of days, is progged to shift over central Pa Monday, so will only carry chance POPs of a late day shower across the extreme northwest portion of the forecast area, with dry weather very likely for the rest of the forecast area. As for Monday`s highs, there is very little change in model 850 temps from today, so will not stray much from todays maxes, ranging mostly in the upper 70s and low 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather. The ridge will be reinforced with Hurricane Jose forecast to remain far enough offshore to just bring some high clouds to the eastern half of the area. As Jose moves away heights will rise and this should further dry us out for the latter part of next week. The GEFS forecasts a closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights by next Friday and Saturday which will translate to well above normal temps. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Now a few thunderstorms to the southeast of IPT, but these should stay out of our TAF sites. Will adjust, if this changes. 00Z TAFS sent. VFR conditions this evening will deteriorate once again overnight with fog and low clouds bringing fairly widespread MVFR/IFR for a few hours either side of sunrise Monday. After early restrictions, Monday will be a virtual carbon copy of today with some afternoon showers possible in a few spots. .Outlook... Tue-Wed...Mainly dry with patchy morning fog. Otherwise primarily VFR conditions. Eastern areas may see NE winds 10-20 mph as main impacts from Jose remain off to our east. Thu-Fri...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Ross/Gartner AVIATION...Martin

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