Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290204 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1004 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will push across the region late Sunday and Monday. The heavy rain and deep tropical moisture from the tropical cyclone nearing SC tonight should stay more along the coast this weekend. However, some constant moderate rainfall is possible in the Lower Susquehanna Valley on Sunday Night. High pressure will build into the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... All is on track. Previous... Just a few showers up in the NW as stabilization is occurring elsewhere. Some high clouds already peeling off TS Bonnie and making it into the central Appalachians and SC PA. So, it may not be totally clear overnight. Will hang onto POPs just a bit longer in the NW with an expectation that they will weaken some and break apart some as they make their own cold pool. Cool to see the well-defined and long outflow boundaries spreading away from the earlier convection. Previous... Convection is waning with very few returns left on the radar. Still a few things popping up over the NW and Laurels. But, the overall trend continues with most of the area dry and the sky beginning to clear. Tweaks this update were mainly to temps, and to POPs so they fit tighter to radar in the first hour/two. Previous... Current convection already looks to be on the downswing. Only very isolated TSRA at this point. Expect most radar returns to be gone before sunset. Capping aloft and loss of heating should keep anything else from forming through the rest of the night. some fog is again possible mainly in the valleys where it rained today. But, there will probably be enough of a time period of drying/evaporation this evening before we totally stratify and stabilize to keep the fog from being widespread. It will be muggy. Mins in the 60s over all the area, much like July. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Sunday looks like a copy of Sat in many ways. The heating will lead to isolated/scattered convection popping off the ridges. However, some more support may be nearing from the west before sunset and could help the diurnal convection last longer. Any moisture from the TC to our south should remain well to the SE of the area Sunday. Temps look a bit cooler on Sunday afternoon than Sat - just a bit more cloud cover and just slightly lower 8H temps overhead. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Still looks like the highest pops would be Sunday night. A plume of tropical moisture lifting up the coast could bring a brief shot of heavy rain to the eastern areas Sunday Night. Models have things clearing out on Monday. Looking warm but mainly dry for the period Tuesday into Wed...as the cold front moves se of our area. Chance of showers and storms increase later Thursday into Friday...as a cold front moves se. Cooler weather to follow the front. For Monday into Friday...just made minor changes to the package. Took the superblend and made minor adjustments to next Saturday. Looks like a weak wave may lift ne along the cold front. Adjusted superblend pops a little to fit in. Pattern trying to set up for the week after next would favor a cooler and wetter cycle again. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms continue to move north and shouldn`t have any reducing conditions through the first half of the overnight period. Areas that received precipitation, especially BFD, JST and AOO could see early morning Fog/mist and possibly some low stratocu. MVFR with brief periods of IFR are possible between 08Z and 12Z. However an upper level trough will move through early tomorrow morning which will bring moist southwesterly flow. this could bring a chance for late morning, early afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Through the first half of the afternoon reducing conditions should be contained to the central and western TAF sites. As the trough moves eastward Sunday night the eastern TAF sites could see periods of MVFR in SHRA/TSRA and will help to enhance the shower coverage. Rain with a slight tropical connection may slide across MDT/LNS Sun night. OUTLOOK... Mon...Sct tsra impacts poss. Tue-Thu...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Dangelo/Ceru

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