Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 181154 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 754 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Above average warmth and dry weather will continue through the weekend, adding to one of the warmest starts to October on record. The dry spell will end early next week, followed by a cooler weather pattern leading up to Halloween. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Big bubble no trouble. Sunny day a good 5F warmer than yesterday with lighter winds. Another clear comfortable autumn night.
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A bit warmer still on Thursday. A wave weakens the high a bit and the gradient is a bit stronger so could be a bit more windy. But the high builds back in as the wave, well up in Canada passes by. It does drag some slightly cooler air in Thursday afternoon into early Friday. But warm air with above normal 850 hPa temperatures is poised to move in behind the rebuilding high Friday for a warm late-day Friday and probably a warmer still Saturday. Enjoy the fine weather is the key here.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will support above average temperatures through the weekend. This will further add to the anomalous October warmth which should help to secure a spot in the top-10 warmest Octobers - if not top 5 or even #1. Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble systems continue to indicate a pattern flip by the middle of next week with a period of colder (near/below normal) temperatures starting around October 25th. The depth and longevity of the emerging upper trough and subsequent cooler pattern remains in question - so we will have to wait and see how much of a dent it can put in the strongly positive month-to-date departures from climatology. On the precipitation side, the prolonged dry spell ends early next week as a cold front moves across the Appalachians. Stream separation differences/closed low development in some of the deterministic models leads to increasing spread and thus uncertainty in the forecast details such as timing. The GOM will be open for moisture inflow northward ahead of the front. So will keep continuity and favor max POPs in the Monday night- early Tuesday timeframe. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Clear skies will prevail through the next 24 hours, and likely beyond that. Winds through the period will generally be light as well, favoring the southwest under 10 knots. Generally no restrictions expected through Sunday, except for some patchy valley fog in the overnights and near sunrise. This should become more prevalent later in the period, Friday through Sunday. Outlook... Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected. Fri-Sun...Mainly VFR, with just some patchy AM valley fog. && .CLIMATE... Month-to-date, October 2017 is the warmest October on record at Harrisburg and Williamsport. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Grumm/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Grumm/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Jung/Gartner CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.