Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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514 FXUS61 KCTP 160044 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 844 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak and almost exclusively dry cold front will drift south across Central PA tonight before dissipating as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region. Seasonably warm and dry conditions will occur Wednesday with abundant sunshine and light wind. Mainly clear skies and comfortable temperatures will follow for Wednesday night. Morning sunshine on Thursday will fade behind increasing afternoon clouds as a warm front approaches from the south, bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the region mainly Thursday night. A cold front will push through the state late Friday and Friday night bringing with it a few round of showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure will clear things out behind the front for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High res/CAMS guidance agrees well with regional radar mosaic with respect to a subtle light wind shift line associated with a very weak cool front dropping south across the nrn mtns of PA this evening. Several, isolated showers were seen along this boundary, but overall area POPs to the south of Interstate 80 will stay mainly below 10 percent, while a few locations across the NW and Ncent mtns will be in the high chc range. After 05Z Thursday...rising heights and weak ridging aloft will lead to continued drying with skies expected to become clear to scattered. Light and variable winds and moderately high sfc dewpoints ranging from the L60s NW to the L70s SE will likely dip up to several deg late tonight via condensation/likely valley fog formation Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s will be several deg warmer than normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... Wednesday continues to look dry after starting the day with a fair amount of fog to burn off. With plenty of sunshine we warm into the 70s and low 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will remain over the region over the region into Thursday. However the 00Z EC/GFS/NAM are in good agreement of another 500 MB trough approaching the region through the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon. This will correspond with a mid level closed low that will move through the peninsula of Michigan and bring a warm frontal boundary through the state Friday. This will allow for higher Max temperatures and a better chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Models begin to diverge into the weekend bu they have a cold front moving through the mid Atlantic Friday night into Saturday morning. Based on NBM and latest mid range guidance have trended temperatures upward.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SERN zones continue to grudgingly improve as the rain moves off to the east. Light winds assure improvement will remain slow as no well defined push of dry air is expected. Elsewhere some weak instability will lead to an some isolated pop up showers/thunderstorm in a few spots for the remainder of the afternoon. Briefly lower conditions could result if a terminal takes a direct hit. Fog is expected to redevelop overnight as clouds scattered out and the wind remains light. impacts expected late tonight into early Wednesday with some restrictions AOB airfield mins. .OUTLOOK... Thu-Fri...Sct Tstm impacts likely. Sat...No sig wx. Sun...Restrictions with scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ .SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte

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