Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 260318 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1118 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK KEEPING US WARM BUT WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... MCLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. ABV AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE AND CLIMATOLOGY BOTH ARGUE FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA BTWN 08Z-12Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AFTER STARTING OUT WITH MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED TUESDAY UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE. RETURN SW FLOW AND ASSOC INCREASED DWPTS ACROSS NW PA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MIX OF SUN AND CU BY AFTN. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABV THOSE OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE INITIAL PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A BIG RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN US...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH/BECOMING FLATTENED BY ONE OR TWO PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY SCOOTING EAST FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH WEDNESDAY...AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD UNTIL AT LEAST LATER WEDNESDAY-WED NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION AND CROSSES CENTRAL PENN LATE WED INTO EARLY THU MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA/SCT TSRA WILL OCCUR ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH CLDS ON 03Z TAF UPDATE. SOME HIGH CLDS THIS EVENING. NICE SUNSET. ONE OF THE FEW EVENINGS WITH DRY CONDITIONS THIS SUMMER. ANYWAY...CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG. USED A COMBINATION OF OBS FROM LAST NIGHT AND GUIDANCE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND TEMPS FCST TO DROP BELOW CURRENT AND FCST DEWPOINTS WOULD SUPPORT FOG. ALSO IT HAS BEEN WET LATELY. FAR WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH BREEZE TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY FOG. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE AN ALMOST CARBON COPY OF TODAY AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF. NEW 00Z TUE NAM SHOWS LITTLE QPF FOR NW PA TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL WILL HAVE TO WATCH...AS LAKE ERIE IS WARM...AND DYNAMICS NOT BAD...WILL DEPEND ON THE AMT OF SFC CONVERGENCE AND IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTED BACK TO THE NORTH. OFTEN MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS JUST NORTH OF THE PA BORDER AT NIGHT. FOR WED...SOME HINTS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REFORM ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. OUTLOOK... WED...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE AFTN/EVE. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.