Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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597 FXUS61 KCTP 272001 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 401 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon bringing a chance of a shower or thundershower. High pressure build into the area tonight drying things out. Wednesday morning will be quite chilly with lows in the 40s and 50s. The high will move off the east coast setting up a warmer and more humid airflow beginning on Thursday. A cold front on Saturday will bring a brief break in the humidity. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Radar showing popcorn showers across the region. So far lightning strikes have been to the north and east of area, but that may change in next couple hours and will keep mention of thunder in the forecast. Showers all quite small in size and moving quickly with the westerly flow, so rainfall amounts will be low. Drier air to the west will bring any showers quickly to an end this evening. With clear skies and light winds, look for good radiational cooling for a few hours overnight and by morning temperatures will be in the 40s over the northern half of the area and 50s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure provides a quiet weather day with mild afternoon temperatures with low humidities for the afternoon hours, making for very comfortable weather for late June. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Did not make a lot of large changes on this package. Warm advection on Thursday could result in an isolated strong storm, mainly along the NY border. Fcst dewpoints not all that high for late June, so think activity will be limited. Overall the pattern is becoming more humid, more like one often gets in late June into late August. The main thing is that while 500 mb height rise into next week, the combination of a weakness across the eastern part of the country at 500 mb, wet ground, and higher dewpoints, will result in some showers and storms at times next week. Prior to this, a weak cold front will move into the area by the weekend. Most likely this weak cold front will move across the area on Saturday but the front is progged to be weak, so temperatures will not change much, just a bit of a break in the humidity. Did go with a dry period Sunday Night into early Tue. Went with some showers and storms after this, but did adjust superblend POPS some to fit with the pattern and others. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Other than a few fast moving showers for the remainder of the afternoon, look for VFR conditions through Thursday morning. More unsettled weather is expected beginning later on Thursday lasting into the weekend. .OUTLOOK... Thu-Fri...Isolated PM tsra impacts poss, mainly northern Pa. Sat...Scattered PM tsra impacts possible. Sun...Still a chance of showers and storms, mainly during the first half of Sunday. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Ross/Martin

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