Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170547 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 147 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL VISIT BRIEFLY ON MONDAY WHILE THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROLL EAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY COULD GET HOT NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
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RUC13 850 MB THETA E FIELD DEPICTS NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS DROPPING UP TO 0.10" IN 5 MINUTES (0.07" HERE AT THE OFFICE SINCE 130 AM). BOUNDARY SHUD CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION BATTLING INCREASINGLY STABLE STRATIFICATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE 05-08Z TIMEFRAME BEFORE SHOWERS FIZZLE. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. CURRENT TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH LOWS IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60F ACROSS THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE FRONT STALLS OFF TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...AND A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO RIDING IN FROM THE WEST COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHRA IN THE SRN COS...ESP OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROLLING W-E OFF TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY COULD AGAIN HELP TO MAKE ISOLD SHRA IN THE AFTN ON MONDAY. THE AFTN CAPES ON THE NAM SEEM OVERDONE...AS DO THE NAM MOS MAX TEMPS IN THE U80S IN THE EAST. WILL TEMPER THOSE BY A FEW DEGS - KEEPING THEM CLOSE TO THE GFS MOS. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE MID-TEENS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED START TO THE WEEK...BUT RIDGE BUILDING IN STARTING MIDWEEK WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER BEFORE MORE HUMID AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS CWA MONDAY WILL GET HUNG UP NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY /PARALLEL TO FRONT/. SHORTWAVE RIDES IN OVERHEAD...CONTINUING POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY MEANDER BACK NORTHWARD A BIT /INTO SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PENN/ FOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE ALOFT SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS GLAKES...WHICH WILL KICK THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND USHER IN BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER. WE/LL SEE A FEW CHILLIER NIGHTS...ESP ACROSS THE NORTH /THE COLDEST BEING WED NIGHT WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 40S NORTH OF I-80/ AS HIGH SETTLES IN. BUT SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS ON THU AS RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS TO OUR EAST. AS LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOISTEN BACK UP...ISOLATED LATE DAY TSTMS AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HALF THU AND ESP FRI. HEIGHTS RISE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SURGE OF MOISTURE ALSO GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HEAT AND ESPECIALLY HUMIDITY. TSTM PROBABILITIES INCREASE SAT...PEAKING ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE GLAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A GRADUAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS BACK TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT A PLUME OF MOIST AIR IS FLOWING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA ON A WESTERLY FLOW. CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF SHRA/TSRA AT EITHER UNV OR IPT BTWN 04Z-06Z. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ATTM BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHERE THE PERSISTENT...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW CIGS...ESP AT JST. JST REPORTING A 1300 FT CIG AT 03Z AND BULK OF LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORTS IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT JST AS BLYR COOLS/MOISTENS. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED JUST SOUTH OF PA ON MONDAY...KEEPING AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SRN TIER MON MORNING. BUT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP FOR ANY TERMINALS FOR 12-18Z MONDAY...BUT MDT/LNS COULD PICK UP A SHOWER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY EARLY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE W MTNS WILL MIX OUT TO MSUNNY SKIES BTWN 12Z-15Z. OUTLOOK... TUE...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY AM. PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTH. WED-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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