Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 030124 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... FINALLY PUTTING SHOWERS TO BED FOR THE NIGHT...WITH LAST REMNANTS HOLDING ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. MUGGY SUMMER AIR MASS IN PLACE BRINGING A REPEAT OF VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MILD MINS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE QUICKLY AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. UNTIL THEN THE TERMINAL THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO GET HIT IN THE NEXT HOUR IS UNV WHERE BRIEF IFR AND GUSTS TO 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ONCE THE STORM PASSES BY. ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THURSDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK... FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE

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