Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 200556 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 156 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH LOW DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE FOR A COLD OVERNIGHT. THE CUT-OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD SLOW THE RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT. MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 36F OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY TOO HIGH FOR ASOS TO PICK UP. MOST GUIDANCE HAS TROUBLE WITH THE PESKY CIRRUS. ADDED CLOUDS TO SHOW THE CIRRUS WITH MORE OF AN INFLUENCE IN SOUTHEASTERN PA. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... ANOTHER COLD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STILL BE IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE ALOFT AND THE CUT-OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST SHOULD KEEP A NICE STRONG MESOSCALE EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 1 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL SO MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY. THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION AND DRY AIR. AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25. DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH. COLDER FOR WED. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU. A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET. ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. ONLY A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS AROUND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 15Z AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM THE NE TO THE SE...BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS RETURN SUN NIGHT. OUTLOOK... MON...NO SIG WX. TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...RXR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.