Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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058 FXUS61 KCTP 041142 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 742 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HRRR TRACKS THE RAIN AREA ENEWD OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA THROUGH 12Z. 04/00Z HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING CLOSES OFF AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NEWD DURING THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD REACHING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWERS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE SE. BINOVC AT THE OFFICE...BUT FILLING IN SOME NOW. MADE SOME MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 21Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAFS WAS TO BACK OFF ON THE LOWER CONDITIONS. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT UNV EARLIER...BUT CENTRAL AREAS NOT BAD NOW. STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST...MAINLY SE. SKIES CLEAR TO THE WEST AT SITES LIKE JST...BUT BFD HAS DENSE FOG. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...BUT EASTERN AREAS MAY STAY IFR AND MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND THU. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...MARTIN

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