Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 262340 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 740 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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...An unsettled Memorial Day weekend in store... A weak ridge will move across the region tonight ahead of a a trough of low pressure expected to move through southern PA Saturday. A cold front will approach the region Sunday, and pass through Sunday night and early Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Models indicate upper heights will continue to rise overnight as a weak ridge moves through the region. The scattered sprinkles we see on the radar now will diminish over the next few hours leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies but a mainly dry overnight. Lows in the 50s will be near to a few deg above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Approaching wave should give way to renewed light rain Sat morning mainly across the southern part of the state. A dry Sat aftn and early Sunday will give way to more rain Sunday afternoon region wide. The other operational models are also generating what looks to be an MCS upstream. The 06Z NAM has some convection just scooting to the south of the area, and it is mainly on Saturday. The EC is also placing a high QPF over the upper OH valley and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sat morning. There is a little better consensus on the timing and placement of convection for the short term, so we will nudge the POPs up a bit in the SW for the late tonight and Sat time frame. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A shortwave ridge aloft over PA and departing 1016 mb area of sfc high pressure over New England will highlight the start of the extended period, providing dry weather and partly to mostly cloudy skies for us under a light southeasterly llvl flow, topped by increasing mid and high clouds late Sat night and early Sunday. After a mainly dry morning Sunday, a quick transition to increasing deep layer moisture and higher PWAT air of 1-1.25 inches will occur Sunday afternoon through much of Sunday night. A large-scale trough and increasing upper level divergence (associated with a lead upper shortwave in the west/SW flow) will lead to a fairly large area of moderately strong uvvel and a widespread moderate rainfall along and ahead of a cold front. GEFS Probs for GE 0.50 inch of rain/24 hours ranges from 50-80 percent across the wrn mtns of PA...to generally less than 50 percent across the eastern half of the state. This translates into very high POPs for measurable rain (90 percent or more) across the western half of the CWA, to between 70 and 90 percent across the south-central mtns and Susq Valley. 12Z EC and 12z GEFS are in very good agreement on the timing/location of the north/south sfc cold front during the afternoon hours Monday across the eastern half of the state with weak deep- layer ridging and drying for Monday afternoon and night. Dry conditions expected Tuesday morning before significant cooling aloft accompanies a pair of short waves late Tuesday and later Wednesday. POPs during this midweek period will be painted as chc - translating to scattered showers with preference for the majority of the QPF (albeit quite light at that)to be across the typical west-nwrly flow upslope prone areas of the Laurel highlands and NW mtns. The chance for any thunder will be very minimal Tuesday through Thursday. Generally dry NW flow occurs late in the week into next weekend as a 1020 sfc high over the upper midwest Friday evening builds SE twd the region. Pops Thur night through Fri night will be 30 percent or less. After our bout of coolish weather with temps several Deg F below normal Sunday and Monday, GEFS mean temps rebound back to near or slightly above normal (even under slightly cooling 850 mb temps) for Tuesday through at least Thursday. ECENS mean temps are several deg warmer than the GEFS and Nat`l Blend of Models temps. leaned closer to the cooler solutions based on the few-svrl deg C of cooling aloft with near to slightly below 850 mb temps.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold air aloft and associated low level instability resulting in widespread stratocu across central Pa this evening. MVFR cigs remain a possibility at the higher elevation airfields (BFD/JST) through the evening hours, while VFR conditions should prevail elsewhere. Cooling/stabilizing boundary layer will result in clearing skies, diminishing wind after sunset. Although confidence is high for widespread VFR conditions overnight, the one exception could be across the northwest mountains, where BFD is already reporting a low dewpoint depression at 22Z, and clearing skies/diminishing may result in fog after midnight. Probability of at least tempo IFR visibility at BFD is about 50 pct late tonight. Remnant meso/convectively enhanced wave tracking east across the Ohio Valley should thicken clouds back up by Saturday morning. Confidence remains low on the evolution of this system given limited predictability and continued above avg spread in the model guidance including high-res CAMs. Models are usually too far north with MCS type activity so it looks like the best chance for light showers/reduced cigs would be over the far SW airspace 10-16z. .OUTLOOK... Sun...Showers likely with sub-VFR especially Sunday night. Mon-Tue...Scattered showers and a few Tstorms possible. Wed...VFR early with tsra accompanying a cold fropa late. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Gartner NEAR TERM...La Corte/Gartner SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner LONG TERM...Lambert AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Gartner

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