Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 141943 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 243 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move overhead tonight. A cold front will move through Wednesday night and then another will move through over the weekend with high pressure in between the two. Much colder and blustery conditions will follow for the end of the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Crazy low clouds not going anywhere. Little mixing and no advection mean little change expected for the first part of the night. As the inversion lowers through the evening and tonight, there /should/ be a few breaks open up. But, I am getting more skeptical of that with each hour. The NAM may have the right idea in not clearing things out for most areas as the nighttime stratification is not a friend to clearing many times - esp in mid Nov. Temps have not been too far off today despite the clouds. So, will not change the first few hours, and keep an eye on clearing for min temps tonight. Will keep them a deg or two above prev fcsts.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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Any clearing overnight or in the AM on Wed may close up again as the flow around the sfc high brings maritime moisture up from the Atlantic. The ern cos. may be cloudy and may even have a light shower or patch of DZ by day`s end. The west will see the high clouds thickening and lowering. By sunset, showers may be into Warren Co., but most likely hold off until 00Z.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure over the region Tue night retreats to the NE on Wed as a low pressure area track east across the Great Lakes. Warm front lifting ahead of the low will bring chance for showers to western sections early Wed with higher likelihood of showers Wed night into Thu as the low tracks north of PA. Colder air filtering in may bring brief shot of snow showers to mainly NW mtns on Thu. Ridge of high pressure slides through Thu night through Fri. This will be followed by a deepening storm system that will move into the upper Great Lakes later Friday into Saturday - with rain developing Fri night and persisting as a cold front swings through on Saturday (earlier in the day if you are a fan of the GFS, later with the ECMWF). Rain ahead of this system will transition to lake effect snow showers by Saturday evening/night and Sunday with arctic air sweeping into the state. NW flow will then keep clouds and snow showers in the forecast for NW portions of CWA Mon into Tue. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Low clouds cover the entire area with no breaks seen yet. False alarms of cloud shadows on satellite pics, though. NAM forecasts with better vertical resolution than GFS and other models are very pessimisstic with the clouds this afternoon and into the night. Few breaks are expected in the next few hours, and the clouds may stay put through the entire night in some northern locations. Visby good - except for that brief flurry in BFD just now. Even those radar returns are dissipating slowly. Big question is how fast clearing may occur. Using a healthy does of persistence and pessimissim, I will delay the clearing even into the night for many terminals. The good news is that the clouds are mainly VFR decks. High pressure and subsidence finally take over later tonight and Wed. But, a fast-moving front will move through the Great Lakes and Ohio valley Wed and be on the doorstep by sunset Wed. However, low level flow brings in some Atlantic moisture by the end of the day in the east. This could even make a spot of drizzle late in the day or Wed night in the Poconos/NE mtns. Outlook... Wed...Patchy AM fog possible eastern Pa. Evening showers/low cigs possible KBFD. Wed PM...SHRA/low cigs W...low cigs/DZ poss E. Thu...NW flow. SCT SHSN and IFR in BFD/JST. MVFR cigs elsewhere. Fri...No sig wx expected. Sat...SHRA...TSRA poss. Sun...LkEff SHSN NW. Breezy. Fair elsewhere.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Lambert/RXR AVIATION...Dangelo

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