Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 271640 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1140 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WARM ADVECTION CREATING SOME MID/LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTN...AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL OH MAY MAKE A SPRINKLE IN THE NW BEFORE 7 PM...BUT ANY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD WET THE GROUND WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR GRB/STL AT MID- DAY AND WILL JUST ABOUT BISECT THE AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE GOOD FORCING WILL ALSO BE WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM IS ALL WARM TO START AND FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE TIME. THE TEMPS WILL ONLY COOL OFF ENOUGH OVER THE NWRN MTS TO HAVE SNOW MIX IN WITH OR JUST START TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY SUNRISE THERE. OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL BE THE P-TYPE. HIGH POPS ON ORDER FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA ALL OF THE NIGHT...BUT RAIN MAY NOT GET SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE IN THE SC AND SE BY SUNRISE. QPF SEEMS TO BE A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
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RAIN/SHOWERS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL FINISH SPREADING SE TO COVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. FORECAST VERY CONSISTENT AND PERSISTENT...WITH THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. DAYLIGHT AND THE TAPERING OF THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH TO LAY DOWN WHERE IT DOES SNOW. THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY FLAKES AT ALL. FINAL QPF IS WELL UNDER A HALF OF AN INCH. THE FRONT DRAGS IT/S FEET WITH NO REAL UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST...IT WILL BE MORE ZONAL FLOW AT THE BOTTOM AT THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE SERN COS BY SUNSET. WILL GO FOR HIGH POPS AT FIRST...AND SHRINK THEM FROM NW-S FROM LATE MORNING TO THE EVENING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDS JUST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALSO...BY THEN...ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OR JUST SNOW IN THE LAURELS. BUT THE LOW QPF MEANS LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEGINS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITS THE CWA AND WHETHER A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH COOLING 850 TEMPS...A MIX OF R/S IS POSSIBLE IF THIS WAVE DOES INDEED DEVELOP AND TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH. AT THIS POINT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ONLY GIVES THE SE ZONES A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT AS OUR FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK OUT. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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UPDATE AT 16Z... STILL ALL VFR. THE CLOUDS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA ARE A AOA FL060...SO NO WORRY OF MVFR. EARLIER SMOKE LAYER/HAZINESS HAS MIXED OUT. RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH BFD A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED...BUT ONLY BY AN HOUR OR TWO. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AND PERHAPS GO TO ALL SNOW DURING THE 28/12-16Z PERIOD AT BFD...BUT TAPER OFF TO NOTHING BEFORE 18Z. PREV... VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH. SOME WEAK STRATOCU HAS FORMED OVER THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER IT WILL LINGER AROUND MVFR CIGS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLEAR BY MID MORNING. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR REDUCED CONDITIONS AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. IT SHOULD BEGIN AT BFD BETWEEN OOZ AND 06Z. THEN AT JST BETWEEN 06Z TO 09Z...BEFORE AFFECTING AOO...IPT AND UNV 09Z TO 12Z. MDT AND LNS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE RESTRICTIONS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IFR AT BFD AND JST IS PROBABLE...BUT MAINLY AFTER 09Z. REDUCING CONDITIONS SHOULDN/T LAST TO LONG...WITH SKIES LIFTING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SAT NITE-SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MON-WED...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...ROSS AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU

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