Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 160526 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 126 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Blustery and cool weather is in store today. Temperatures will rebound to near normal on Tuesday, then continue to gradually rise to well above normal right into this upcoming weekend, as a large area of high pressure builds in. This will lead to an extended period of dry conditions.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Low clouds filling in behind the front, but downslope should kill them off as they move southwest off the Allegheny mountains. Subsidence over Lake Erie is strong enough to wipe out clouds where there is no Huron/Georgian Bay connection. Thus, clouds should be on the decrease over all the area through the morning and into the day. Some strato cu will stick around on upslope and with some moisture off the lakes and cyclonic flow. But, it will get mostly sunny in the SE half of the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... For Monday, we expect to see maxes about 5-10F below normal with highs ranging from the U40s to L50s across the mtns, to around 60F in the SE. As the mid-level thermal trough crosses the region Monday, isolated to scattered instability (and lake effect) showers will occur across the NW Mtns and Laurel Highlands, with just some sprinkles accompanying expanding MDT cu clouds in the afternoon elsewhere. The NW wind gusting between 20-25 mph will trim another 8-10 degrees off what the air temp should feel like on our skin. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As the upper level trough deepens as it moves eastward, cold air, with readings of around 6C at 850 mb will move over the region by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with readings in the mid 30s. Frost across much of Central and Northern PA remains likely with even sub- freezing conditions across the perennial cold spots INVOF KBFD. For the mid to late week period, heights gradually rise with a multi-model consensus indicating a string of dry and increasingly warm days and mainly clear/cool nights. We could have a period true Indian Summer weather with high temps in the in the low to mid 70s from mid week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong cold front has pushed southeast of the entire region as of late this evening. In the wake of the front, low level moisture ascending the western mountains should produce predominantly MVFR cigs at KBFD and KJST the rest of the night into Monday morning. Elsewhere, the drying effect of a downsloping northwest flow should result in predominantly VFR conditions through tonight. High pressure will build into the region Monday, bringing clearing skies and gusty northwest winds. Model soundings indicate lingering MVFR cigs at KBFD/KJST will give way VFR conditions by around 16Z. Outlook... Tue-Wed...Patchy AM fog possible. Thu...No sig wx expected. Fri...Patchy AM fog possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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