Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCTP 220546
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
146 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
A cold front moved southeast through Pennsylvania Friday. Blustery
northwest winds will usher in much colder air overnight and
Saturday. Occassional like showers are possible through Saturday
night especially across the mountain areas and the north. The
first bout of lake effect and upslope rain and snow showers are
possible over some of the higher ridge tops.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Patchy drizzle and very light showers continue over northwest
mountains as cold air continues to sweep southeastward across the
region. This is expected to coninute to diminish overnight as the
trough slowly pushes east. Northwest winds will continue to gust
15 to 25 mph throughout. May see some flakes mix in over the
highest terrain by morning...but not expecting accums at this
time. Mins will range from the mid 30s north to the upper 40s
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A cool and unsettled day is in store Saturday as persistent
northwest flow and progressively cooler boundary layer air is
forced into the region. In fact 850 mb temps remain
below 0 throughout the day throughout central PA...and we`ll
certainly be looking at a few wet snowflakes mixing in at times
with some of the showers over the higher terrain of the northwest
and northern mountains. Under scenarios such as what we expect,
the best chance for measurable precipitation usually favors these
western and northern higher terrain areas with little more than
Maxes will range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower to
middle 50s southeast.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the surface and mid level systems track through eastern Quebec,
a broad cyclonic/northwest flow pattern will continue into early
next week. Models forecast lingering deformation or lake-enhanced
pcpn to come to an end by early Sunday morning. Gusty winds will
should weaken a bit with peak gusts not as strong as Saturday.
Focus will shift upstream to a series of shortwaves diving
southeast from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the Northern
Mid Atlantic region. Models show some varying QPF solutions with
these features, but with limited moisture look for max amounts in
the 0.10 to 0.25 range over north-central PA. Following a brief
moderation in sfc- 850mb temps on Sunday, the aforementioned
shortwaves will bring a reinforcing shot of chilly air into the
area with below normal temps forecast into the middle of next
week. High pressure should provide dry weather Tue-Wed with pcpn
probs increasing toward the end of the week, with GFS/EC models
and ensembles showing a low pressure system reaching the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley by Thursday.
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the 03Z package, adjusted the timing of the patchy
rain to the west some.
Across the southeast, left VCSH in, given more activity lifting
northward from MD.
Earlier discussion below.
00Z TAFS sent.
Problem will go from low clouds tonight to gusty winds
on Saturday. A few rain showers tonight, may mix with
some snow at JST and BFD by early morning.
Improving conditions for the later part of the weekend.
Visibility overall not expected to be very low over the next
few days, except for brief time periods in heavier rain and
Sun...No sig wx.
Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible NW.
Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx.
NEAR TERM...Watson/DeVoir/La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte