Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 160838 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 438 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery and cool weather is in store today. Temperatures will rebound to near normal on Tuesday, then continue to gradually rise to well above normal right into this upcoming weekend, as a large area of high pressure builds in. This will lead to an extended period of dry conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Still some lingering radar returns over Lanc Co., but it may barely be reaching the ground as cloud bases there are very high. Low clouds percolating off the lower lakes no expanding farther into C PA. However, some breaks are visible on the IR sat pics and downslope should kill these clouds as they move southwest off the Allegheny mountains. Clouds should be on the decrease over all the area through morning. Maxes temps are on deep discount today - about 15 to 25F cheaper than Sunday. Tight gradient will generate NW wind of 12-17mph with gusts into the 20s and perhaps lower 30s - esp in the SE and NE mtns.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Skies continue to clear as the high builds in tonight. The winds will remain up above 5kts for the first half of the night. The wind will become lighter through the night. So, the forecast problem tonight is frost/freeze. Dewpoints do drop into the 20s in spots, but the wind keeps up long enough that I am not confident enough to post a frost advy - and freezing temps are not likely over places which are still in the growing season. Perhaps SEG/THV and similar micro-climates could touch 32F, but most will not. For now, just mentioning areas of frost. Tuesday will hold lots of sunshine, so the frost will melt off quickly. The 8H temps may already be rising slightly before sunrise, so a temp warm-up is in store. Sun and light WSW wind will put us back into the normal range of maxes around 55-60F.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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For the mid to late week period, heights gradually rise with a multi-model consensus indicating a string of dry and increasingly warm days and mainly clear/cool nights. We could have a period true Indian Summer weather with high temps in the in the low to mid 70s from mid week into next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong cold front has pushed southeast of the entire region as of late this evening. In the wake of the front, low level moisture ascending the western mountains should produce predominantly MVFR cigs at KBFD and KJST the rest of the night into Monday morning. Elsewhere, the drying effect of a downsloping northwest flow should result in predominantly VFR conditions through tonight. High pressure will build into the region Monday, bringing clearing skies and gusty northwest winds. Model soundings indicate lingering MVFR cigs at KBFD/KJST will give way VFR conditions by around 16Z. Outlook... Tue-Wed...Patchy AM fog possible. Thu...No sig wx expected. Fri...Patchy AM fog possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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