Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 011546 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1146 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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15Z...VISIBLE STLT LOOP SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALSO MOVG FROM SW TO NE FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE S-CNTRL MTNS WITH NEARBY ASOS SITES PICKING UP BTWN T AND 0.01". WEAK LG SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY /FURTHER HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER/ AND VERY MOIST/HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED IN CVRG /ISOLD-SCT/...WITH MOST AREAS PROBABLY GETTING BY WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY/MAINLY DRY AND RATHER MUGGY LABOR DAY. MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH EWD THRU THE GRT LKS/OH VLY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE FAR NW BASED ON MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QPF. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS 65-70F. LGT WINDS AND HI DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FAVORS SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG ESP IN THE ERN ZONES/SUSQ VLY REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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15Z...LIFR-IFR CIGS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED TO MAINLY MVFR OR LOW END VFR AS OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS TREND TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN WITH ALL SITES BCMG MVFR OR BETTER BY 18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHWR AND TSTM ACTIVITY GIVEN WEAK FORCING/MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SPARSE CVRG /ISOLD-SCT/ AND LOW CONFIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ONLY VC SH/TS MENTION GOING INTO THE 18Z SCHEDULED ISSUANCE. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS POSSIBLY PROMOTING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW CIGS/FOG INTO TUE MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVG EWD THRU THE MIDWEST WILL ALSO BRING THE CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS TO REACH THE NW 1/4 TO 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE BY DAYBREAK TUES. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT-NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS TUES AFTN-EVE AS IT MOVES ACRS CENTRAL PA. ATTM THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK FOR SVR STORMS. OUTLOOK... WED-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL

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