Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240910 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 510 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH. THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS. PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST. AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/09Z TAFS FROM THE 06Z PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE. OUTLOOK... MON...VFR. TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL

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