Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200101 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 901 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The upper level trough has pushed a cold front through the region this afternoon. Cooler and drier weather is expected through Thursday. Another trough approaching the region for the weekend could pull some warm air into the region late Thursday into early Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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All the deep convection is well to the east and all W/W/As have been cancelled or have expired. Batch of showers moving in from NW PA is associated with an upper vort max and continues to produce light rain and just a few ltg strikes. Will keep POPs of 30-60pct in the NW, but most guidance does weaken/dissipate these showers as they try to move to the east. Wave to our south may keep sct SHRA going across SE PA for another few hours. Dewpoints started to drop at KBFD, but have risen once again. Winds to our west are now westerly with dewpoints just under 60F. So, there should still be some drying through the night. Still kind of muggy for a bit tonight, esp in the E and where it has rained very recently. May have to add some fog into the forecast for the places that will stay more-clear overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Noticeably cooler in central and eastern areas. Temperatures should run a bit below normal. Unstable aloft could triggers some showers, mainly in the mountains of western and northwestern PA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Not a lot of change from recent days. Still looks like a strong push of warm and humid air for later Thursday into Friday. Other than early Wed, the next chance of a few hours of dry weather will likely be Saturday, as the cold front drops just to the south of PA. Hard to push cold fronts much further south now, as we head into summer. EC and other models show a rather strong low for late June tracking across the Great Lakes on Sunday. Another round of showers and storms. Rather strong cold advection for next Monday. Will have to watch the Golf of Mexico to see if moisture will be pulled northward later in the week ahead of any of the fast moving lows tracking across the lakes. Overall just minor changes made to the extended package. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A strong front triggered showers and severe thunderstorms across our region today. Another strong line of showers and thunderstorms moving into central PA. Expect periods of showers with TSRA possible at JST between 01Z and 02Z and VCTS possible at BFD between 02Z and 03Z. Any showers in the Southeast have weakened so have only VCSH at LNS. We could have patch MVFR to IFR cigs in valleys and areas where it rained today. But otherwise mainly VFR. Should be VFR on Tuesday with some scattered showers in the mountains from KJST to KBFD. .OUTLOOK... Tue...Sct SHRA...mainly NW. Wed...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. Thu...Sct SHRA and storms...mainly N. Fri...Sct showers and thunderstorms. Sat...Mainly VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Grumm/La Corte NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Grumm/La Corte LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Ceru/Martin

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