Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 300046 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 846 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COOL AND CLAMMY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DEEP MOISTURE AND ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN SPOTS. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...AS WEAK LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL NOT FALL MORE THAN 3-6 DEGREES OFF FRIDAY`S HIGHS. SO WHILE WE WILL END UP SOME 10-15 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE VERY NEAR NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... FOR SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN BASICALLY PRECIPITATION FREE OVER MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY...BUT I`M NOT OPTIMISTIC FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT SKYCOVER-WISE. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH NO RAIN...WE SHOULD MANAGE TO BE ABOUT 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY ON AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 48-HOUR FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING 00Z TUESDAY ARE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. THE FCST RAINFALL SHOULD HELP THE AREA RECOVER FROM /60-90+ DAY/ DEFICITS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF -2.00 TO -4.00 INCHES. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS OVER HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA IN ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS WITH A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS FOCUSED OVER BEDFORD COUNTY. A PERIOD OF IMPROVING/DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/ANOMALOUS MEAN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CONUS BUT THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE PIECES OF THE FCST PUZZLE TO RESOLVE. THE GUIDANCE AGREES IN PRINCIPLE THAT AN ELONGATED AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR OR ALONG THE EAST COAST/WRN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER QUESTION MARKS WITH THE DETAILS ALOFT LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY IN THE RAINFALL TIMING AND COVERAGE PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES VS. SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. OUTLOOK... MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. TUE...NO SIG WX. WED...MVFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.