Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 281615 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1215 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MID AND UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PENN...AND SLOWLY SETTLING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN PART OF THE CWA ZONES SHOULD BE BRIEF AS A DISTINCT POCKET OF STEEP 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES OF GRTN 6C/KM SLIDES SE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. LLVL MOISTURE/STRATOCU CLOUD DECK ALSO COINCIDES NICELY WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DSN THERMAL RIBBON OF -12 TO -18C...SO WE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS REINVIGORATED TO SOME EXTENT BETWEEN 15-20Z /WITH BRIEF SQUALLS POSSIBLE/ FROM KUNV AND KIPT...SOUTH TO KTHV AND KLNS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SUSQ REGION WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING OF SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNTIL LATER NEXT FALL OR EARLY WINTER. HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S WILL BE AROUND 22-25 DEG BELOW NORMAL. A GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN THE LAST DAYS OF MARCH. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR IN MANY LOCATIONS /EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE NRN MTNS...WHERE SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 04Z SUN/ EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE SINGE NUMBERS OVER THE NORTH TO AROUND 20 OVER THE SOUTH. IF WINDS DROP OFF TO CALM...SOME READINGS NEAR ZERO COULD HAPPEN OVER THE FAR NORTH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE /OVER LOWER MICH ATTM/ DRIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEG F ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND AFTER THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WHILE MILDER THAN TODAY...WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NAEFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND ON THE COOL SIDE. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BOUT OF THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR CHILLY POST FRONTAL STRATOCU AND MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS IS FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN INTERESTING LOOKING SURFACE LOW THAT THEY TAKE SE THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PA ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON. AT THIS TIME ALL I HAVE MENTIONED FOR PRECIP IS RAIN. FCST 850 TEMPS WOULD NORMALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO CONSIDER SNOW AT LEAST NORTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE FACT IT IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...I AM RELUCTANT TO FORECAST SNOW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S AND 50S. BY MIDWEEK WE SHOULD SEE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AS THE MAIN TROUGH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN DROPS SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY WEEK`S END. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE FLOW INTO THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ORIGINATING OVER THE PACIFIC NW MORE THAN THE DEEP ARCTIC...SO TEMPS WHILE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME COLD WE HAVE ENDURED FOR SO MUCH OF THE TIME SINCE FEBRUARY. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PENN TAF SITES THROUGH TODAY WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 16-20Z. MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN MTNS OF PENN /KJST NORTH TO KBFD/. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST. AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES UP TO 5-7 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON NW WIND GUSTS INTO THE HIGH TEENS AND LOWER 20KT RANGE WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AFTER A MORE TRANQUIL AND NOTICEABLY MILDER DAY SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER AND PRECEDING...FEW-HOUR SHOT OF MDTLY STG WAA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 1 INCH WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NWRN PENN COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES BY 12Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR. MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. WED...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...LAMBERT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.