Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261156 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 656 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 645 AM UPDATE... KNOCKED POPS AND COVERAGE OF SHSN DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HURRIED THE ENDING OF ANY SNOW FOR THE SE BY AN HOUR OR TWO. NO CHANGES FOR THE WEST. CURRENT TEMPS MAY LEAD TO A MILDER AFTERNOON...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS STILL AROUND AND WILL HOLD STEADY WITH THOSE NUMBERS FOR NOW. THE LIGHT SNOW IS RIGHT AT THE STATE LINE...RIGHT ON TIME. PREV... CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL. THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST. AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO DEGREE H850 LINE.. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A STORM SYSTEM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. HRRR OUTPUT AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW AND ASSOC SIG VIS REDUCTIONS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BTWN 12Z-16Z. COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO. OUTLOOK... FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE. SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM. && .CLIMATE... THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7. THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET IN 1934. SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH COLDEST EVER AT MDT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...TYBURSKI AVIATION...FITZGERALD CLIMATE...DANGELO

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