Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 210230 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THRU PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING ISOLD SHOWERS PERSISTING AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE N MTNS DUE TO SUPPORT FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE E GRT LKS. COOLING/STABILIZING OF BLYR AND PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE LINGERING -SHRA OVR POTTER/TIOGA CO TO DISSIPATE ARND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...NEXT VORT MAX DIVING INTO BASE OF TROF AND ARRIVING OVR THE NW MTNS ARND 12Z COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLD -SRHA OVR THE NW MTNS TOWARD DAWN. LATE EVENING IR LOOP SHOWING PARTIAL CLEARING UNDERWAY. A NEARLY CALM WIND...COMBINED WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND ALREADY LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS AT 02Z...SHOULD PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. THE LGT SERLY FLOW AND RESULTING OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD EVEN RESULT IN DEVELOPING STRATUS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT DWPTS SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FROM THE U50S IN THE COOLEST VALLEYS OF THE NORTH...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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ANY EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING UPPER TROF AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS/INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT FROM IT/S LOCATION OVR OHIO/NW PA TODAY...TO CENTRAL PA MONDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT FOCUS OF SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BE OVR CENTRAL PA. THE 15Z SREF SHOWS CAPES CREEPING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE ON SOME CONVECTION POPPING IN THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE STEADILY WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS. 18Z GEFS MEAN 925TEMPS INDICATE HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WHICH IS A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. HOWEVER...DWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE MID SUMMER.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEAK RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS MON- EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/. A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT MAINLY JUST SOME CLDS. VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LESS RAIN SO FAR TODAY...AND DEWPOINTS NOT REALLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...DID CUT BACK ON THE AMT OF FOG AND LOW CLDS TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 12Z OR 13Z ON MONDAY. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LATER WED INTO EARLY THU...AS COLD FRONT DROPS SE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY. MUCH OF THE TIME PRIOR TO THIS WILL BE DRY. OUTLOOK... TUE...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY A.M MVFR FOG. WDLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WED-THU...COLD FROPA LATER WED-WED NIGHT SHOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRI...NO SIG WX && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...MARTIN

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