Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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644 FXUS61 KCTP 050926 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 526 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE WV/MD PANHANDLES /IDI-CBE TO OKV LINE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT WWD EARLY THIS MORNING. WE HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA LAST NIGHT /WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE ONE OF THE DRIEST SPOTS IN PA OVER THE LAST 30-60+ DAYS/ WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES PER THE SLGT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE CURRENT DAY 1 SLGT RISK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO WV/VA WHERE FFG VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER AND HIRES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE ROBUST QPF AMOUNTS. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN 1/3 OF PA. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH PATCHY DZ/FOG FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SCT P.M. SHOWERS. THE MAX PCPN PROBS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY (DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA WILL BRING A FEW LINGERING -SHRA TO KJST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. AT 09Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS BTWN 500 AND 1000 FT. IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE. BY AFTN...LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS. HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. OUTLOOK... FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT. SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS. SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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