Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261803 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 203 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SMALL RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NW MOUNTAINS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. CENTRAL PA WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A PASSING SPRINKLE AS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE MORE IN THE WAY OF VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE CENTRAL AREAS...WITH SKIES LIKELY SCATTERING OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A PATTERN MORE REMINISCENT OF THE COLD SEASON THAN LATE SUMMER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER THE NW TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SLOW WARMING DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WEAK COLD ADVECTION MEANS THAT STRATOCU CEILINGS SIMILAR TO TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LAST PART OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER THAN NORMAL SIDE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A DEEP UPPER LVL LOW WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWAT AIR OF 0.75 INCH OR LESS STAYS OVER THE STATE. SOME GUIDANCE SHOW A SYSTEM TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA FOR THIS PERIOD. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME...BUT WITH SLOWLY WARMING MAX TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT BRADFORD...WITH HIGHER BASED CEILINGS DOMINATING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. BRADFORD SHOULD POP UP TO VFR FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG LATE AT NIGHT BUT ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE AGAIN BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE PATTERN THURSDAY AND PROVIDE FAIR WX/VFR INTO THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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