Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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901 FXUS61 KCTP 162342 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 642 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the state through Friday. A frontal system will move into the area Saturday with much colder and blustery conditions following it for the end of the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Scattered light rain and snow showers continue to decrease this evening across central and western portions of central PA, but gusty west- northwest winds will persist through the late evening hours in the wake of the cold front that moved across the state today. Model guidance support wind gusts between 25-35kts across the area through sunset, then diminishing slightly overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Friday will be fair and uneventful as we get a break between frontal systems. Highs will be a tick or two cooler than today with a diminishing wind as high pressure moves over the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next impactful weather system will be a storm system that will move through the eastern Great Lakes Saturday. A warm front-cold front combination will bring a period of rain to the area that will be moving in from the west by sunrise Saturday, progressively spreading eastward across the region during the day. QPF into Sat night will be around an inch over the NW mountains tapering to 0.25-0.50 over the SE. The associated cold front is made to pass through the state Saturday evening and overnight, ushering in a shot of cold air and setting the stage for an early season bout with lake effect snow showers for Sunday and Monday. The usual snowbelt areas of NW Warren county into northern McKean County will be the most likely so see several inches of snow, with lesser accums even down into the Laurels. High pressure moving to our south will influence the weather to start Thanksgiving week, bringing a couple of cool-dry days. Temperatures will begin to modify Tuesday with a SW flow expected to develop. Though jet stream will remain north of the region, a quick moving trough will brush the region on Wed followed by a weak shortwave Wed night, which will bring chance for light snow showers back into the NW along with a return of slightly cooler air. GFS hangs on to this trough into Thanksgiving weekend, while the ECMWF brings a flatter 500mb flow pattern. So forecast confidence remains on the low side in the 7-10 day range. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Gusty west-northwest winds will persist through the evening hours in the wake of the cold front that moved across the state today. Bukfit soundings support gusts between 25-35kts across the area through sunset, then diminishing slightly overnight. On the west-northwest winds, low level moisture ascending the mountains of western Pa will result in predominantly MVFR cigs at western most airfields /KBFD, KAOO and KJST/ into tonight. At KBFD, moisture flowing off of Lake Erie will likely produce a period of snow showers this afternoon. Farther south, a few heavier snow showers could briefly drop vsbys to IFR between 20Z-03Z at KJST. Downsloping winds should result in mainly VFR conditions across the eastern half of Pa. Outlook... Fri...Chance of early AM low cigs at KJST. Sat...Showers/low cigs possible, mainly KBFD. LLWS possible. Sun...MVFR/IFR in shsn NW. MVFR to low VFR central and east. Gusty winds 270-300 degrees. Mon and Tue...No sig weather expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gartner NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Gartner SHORT TERM...La Corte/Gartner LONG TERM...La Corte/RXR AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Gartner

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