Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 202115 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 515 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST-SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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THE N-S BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO LOWER THETA-E AIR TO THE EAST. SATELLITE TOPS HAVE WARMED AND RETURNS ON RADAR OVERALL HAVE WEAKENED. STILL A FEW AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN HUNTINGDON. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) SHOW THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST. THE CAMS ARE NOT OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NW PA AND OHIO. THEY SHOW IT WEAKENING THOUGH SOME SHOULD AFFECT WARREN COUNTY THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS MCKEAN. POPS OVERALL LOWER. EXPECT A HUMID NIGHT AND FOG...PATCH DENSE FOG WHERE WE HAD RAINFALL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...CLEARLY ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING IS LOWERING OUR PW TO NEAR NORMAL AND MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REBOUND THE PW VALUES. SO THE PW VALUES IMPLY IT MIGHT BE A BIT DRIER AND LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PREVIOUS: AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THU AM...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE STATE. STEEP LPS RATES CAUSED BY COOL POOL ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SCT- NMRS AFTN CONVECTION...ESP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. GEFS 925MB TEMPS IMPLY ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS FROM THE M70S TO M80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CURRENT MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS US IN A RING OF FIRE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENHANCE THIS POSSIBILITY THOUGH LACK OF MOISTURE OF FRIDAY COULD INHIBIT CONVECTION. GEFS IS SHOWING PWAT ANOMALIES ON SATURDAY AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. CURRENT SET UP FOCUSES THREAT ON WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA...WHERE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE MAY BE ISSUES WITH AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EVE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS ARE LKLY IN N-S BAND OF SHRA/TSRA MOVG E FROM IPT-HGR LINE. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTM ARE POSSIBLE OVER WRN-CNTRL SXNS IN ZOB SECTOR HOWEVER CVRG IS TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN TAFS. AVN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND HIGH BLYR MSTR/SFC DEWPOINTS. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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