Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 131938 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 338 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure from the Ohio Valley will build across the region tonight. A weak disturbance aloft will slide across the region Monday and Tuesday, with just a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A warm front will move into the area on Thursday, followed by a cold front late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A beautiful late summer afternoon is in progress with temperatures in the 70s with comfortable humidity. Other than some fair weather cu and wispy high clouds, it`s a bright sunny afternoon. Skies will continue fair to partly cloudy overnight with the potential for some valley fog late at night as high pressure sits on the state with light winds. Lows in the 50s to lower 60s will be near a couple of degrees either side of normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The high will slide to our east during the day Monday setting up a return flow of increasingly humid air with the ensembles showing PWATs creeping up back above normal by Monday afternoon. With slowly falling heights and increasing cyclonic flow aloft, models are in decent agreement with increasing the chances for showers/thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon. Highs Monday under increasing clouds will average several deg cooler than normal, mainly in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Some minor changes to the longer term grids. Jet max on Tuesday may trigger showers and storms, especially across the northeast, if timing is in line with maximum heating. Did edge up the POPS a little. This is after another chc event on Monday. Wednesday looks dry for now. However, the remains of a weak cold front from the north drops southward toward the area. 00Z EC showed a low with strong warm advection for Thursday. The EC was deeper than faster with the low on Thu. Some variation with guidance with the end of the week. For now, did edge the POPS up some for Sunday and Sunday Night, to line up with others, the blend, and timing of the front better. Did not want to go too high, as events lately are largely clusters of convection.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Widespread VFR and light winds dominate the airspace as weak high pressure approaches from the Midwest. Fair weather will continue overnight with clear-scattered skies and calm winds. This will set the stage for valley fog formation after midnight through the first couple of hours after sunrise. On Monday any restrictions in localized fog will quickly improve by mid morning, with overall cloudiness increasing throughout the day as a weak disturbance aloft moves in from the west. There could be a few scattered showers or thunderstorms bringing a return of localized restrictions Monday afternoon into the evening hours. .OUTLOOK... Tue...VFR with isolated PM tstm impacts e-central/northeast airspace. Wed-Thu...VFR with chance of thunderstorms. Fri...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Martin NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...La Corte

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