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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 131938
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
338 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure from the Ohio Valley will build across the region
tonight.

A weak disturbance aloft will slide across the region Monday
and Tuesday, with just a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

A warm front will move into the area on Thursday, followed
by a cold front late in the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A beautiful late summer afternoon is in progress with
temperatures in the 70s with comfortable humidity. Other than
some fair weather cu and wispy high clouds, it`s a bright sunny
afternoon.

Skies will continue fair to partly cloudy overnight with the
potential for some valley fog late at night as high pressure
sits on the state with light winds.

Lows in the 50s to lower 60s will be near a couple of degrees
either side of normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The high will slide to our east during the day Monday setting up
a return flow of increasingly humid air with the ensembles
showing PWATs creeping up back above normal by Monday
afternoon. With slowly falling heights and increasing cyclonic
flow aloft, models are in decent agreement with increasing the
chances for showers/thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon.

Highs Monday under increasing clouds will average several deg
cooler than normal, mainly in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Some minor changes to the longer term grids.

Jet max on Tuesday may trigger showers and storms, especially
across the northeast, if timing is in line with maximum
heating. Did edge up the POPS a little.

This is after another chc event on Monday.

Wednesday looks dry for now. However, the remains of a
weak cold front from the north drops southward toward the
area.

00Z EC showed a low with strong warm advection for Thursday.
The EC was deeper than faster with the low on Thu.

Some variation with guidance with the end of the week. For
now, did edge the POPS up some for Sunday and Sunday Night,
to line up with others, the blend, and timing of the front
better. Did not want to go too high, as events lately are
largely clusters of convection.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Widespread VFR and light winds dominate the airspace as weak
high pressure approaches from the Midwest. Fair weather will
continue overnight with clear-scattered skies and calm winds.
This will set the stage for valley fog formation after midnight
through the first couple of hours after sunrise.

On Monday any restrictions in localized fog will quickly
improve by mid morning, with overall cloudiness increasing
throughout the day as a weak disturbance aloft moves in from
the west. There could be a few scattered showers or
thunderstorms bringing a return of localized restrictions
Monday afternoon into the evening hours.



.OUTLOOK...
Tue...VFR with isolated PM tstm impacts e-central/northeast
airspace.

Wed-Thu...VFR with chance of thunderstorms.

Fri...No sig wx.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Martin
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...La Corte