Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
063 FXUS61 KCTP 300130 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 930 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
* Mainly clear to partly cloudy night with patchy valley fog possible across CPA. * Stormy pattern resumes Monday-Tuesday with a renewed risk of strong to severe storms and locally heavy downpours * Drier/less humid/more comfortable conditions are likely through midweek with high confidence of nice wx on the 4th
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers and storms have struggled to make it across the MD boarder this afternoon, leaving the area with mostly clear skies heading into this evening. Any lingering Cu will fade as the sun sets with a mainly clear to partly cloudy night ahead. There will be some fog in the valleys from the predawn hours through daybreak Monday. Fog may be limited to some extent by increasing mid and high clouds as WAA pattern ramps up over the Ohio Valley downstream of 500mb trough moving into the Upper Midwest. Lows tonight will feel similar to last night with near 70F likely across the Lower Susquehanna Valley to low 60s in the north.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... *Stormy End to June/Start of July moving into the 2H of 2025 A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Monday. A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough and should reach western PA by 12Z Tuesday. In advance of the cold front, plenty of moisture/instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms by peak heating. Given the presence of weak/modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Strong boundary-layer heating is fcst with 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE) amid weak (<30kt) 0-6km deep layer wind shear. This environment will support wet downburst potential and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon and evening. SPC has all of CPA in a level 1/5 MRGL svr tstm risk for D2. The aforementioned mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the region. At the surface, a cold front will move east across PA and will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential Tuesday afternoon/evening. Stronger shear profiles will be present on D3 and this may result in greater storm organization/intensity including the potential for a few supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. SPC will expand the level 1 MRGL svr risk for D3, but we would not be surprised to see an future upgrade to SLGT or level 2/5 given the more robust shear profiles. Max/min temps will be seasonably warm/muggy for late June and early July in the 80-90/60-70F range to start the week. Temps will cool off a bit on Tuesday/Tuesday night behind the front over the north/west Alleghenies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... * A much drier and more comfortable stretch of weather Wed-Sat * High confidence in nice/dry weather on July 4th There is growing confidence in a much drier and more comfortable stretch of weather from midweek 7/2 into the first weekend of July. Expanding on the drier/comfortable stretch, we are talking specifically about: 1) very little to no rainfall forecast and 2) noticeably lower/reduced heat and humidity. A moisture- starved cold front will provide the "best" chance of rain on Thursday PM, but overall we expect the majority of the time to be dry during the Wed-Sat period. Max/min temps will be close to the historical average during the first week of July. There are signals for heat and humidity to ramp upward by the end of next weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Widespread VFR was observed across central PA during the early evening hours, with little more than a few cumulus clouds (with 4-5 kft bases) south of the I-80 corridor. Predominantly VFR conds are expected to continue overnight, although there is low confidence that some spots could see the development of some fog/low clouds during the predawn hours. Increasing high and mid level clouds may help to limit the extent of any fog. Scattered SHRA/TSRA impacts are expected Monday afternoon and evening, and later issuances may consider adding PROB30s to highlight the potential for brief restrictions. Outlook... Mon-Tue...PM showers & t-storms likely; areas of fog & low clouds overnight. Wed...AM fog, then VFR. Thu...Primarily VFR; stray PM shower/t-storm possible. Fri...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Bowen NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Evanego