Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020358 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1058 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... HAVE CHOPPED BACK ON THE ADVYS AS THE PRECIP IS JUST ABOUT DONE - EXCEPT OVER THE LAURELS. THE CENTRAL STRIPE OF COUNTIES UNDER THE PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW WAS ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2 AM EST...BUT MAY BE DROPPED ALTOGETHER VERY SOON IF THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF APPRECIABLY AS ANTICIPATED. JUST A POCKET OR TWO OF FZDZ IN THE SW NOW...AND THE LAURELS - WHERE IT IS RAINING RIGHT NOW - WILL SEE THE RAIN TURN BACK TO SHSN SHORTLY AND CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOON IF THE PRECIP GETS LIGHTER OR VERY SPOTTY. PREV... ONE LAST PUSH OF SNOW SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AT THIS TIME. THIS TOO SHALL PASS...IN ABOUT AN HOUR. BUT THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIP WILL LINGER LONG INTO THE NIGHT IN THE LAURELS AND UPSLOPE FLOW HAS STARTED ALREADY OVER THE REST OF THE NW MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES. THUS...WE STILL NEED THE ADVY THERE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. THE RAIN AT JST WILL BE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW IN A FEW HOURS AS THE TEMPS SLIDE DOWNWARD WITH THE WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY MOVING THRU NE OH/NWRN PA. THE LOWER SUSQ HAS BEEN FZRA FOR A WHILE BUT THE PRECIP IS ALMOST DONE. NEAR TERM MDLS AND RADAR TRENDS MATCHING NICELY...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ONLY A LITTLE SNIZZLE/FZDZ IS IN STORE THERE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE FZDZ IS NOT QUITE DONE...AND ADVY STILL NECESSARY THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHORTLY. THOSE SHSN WILL LINGER L;ONGEST IN THE LAURELS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. TEMPS WON/T MOVE MUCH IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND TEMPS ONLY FALL 10-15F OVER THE NW. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY ONE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL POST FRONTAL SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LOTS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE FOR THE SE HALF IN THE AFTN...BUT CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH ALL DAY OVER THE WESTERN MTNS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS SOME TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THINK MAIN TYPE OF PCPN WILL BE RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DID PUT SMALL AMTS OF .01 ICE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THAT OBJECT TEMPS WILL STILL LIKELY BE COLD. TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT MAY DROP A LITTLE...BEFORE COMING BACK UP LATE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR WED...TOOK SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE NW. TIGHT THICKNESS PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORT A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW PA TO SE PA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY NW OF OUR AREA. LEFT POPS UP...THINK FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. A TREND TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW. PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF FEBRUARY BEHIND. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DWINDLE ACROSS THE REGION. BACK EDGE OF SNOW EXTENDING JUST ABOUT FROM KIPT TO KAOO TO KJST LINE AT 03Z. ADDITIONALLY...MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION DRY SLOTTED...AND JUST SOME PATCHY -FZDZ BEING REPORTED. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT... WITH NOTHING MUCH LEFT BY AROUND 10Z. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS KJST AND KBFD...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY REGENERATE AS WNW FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT CIG RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK... TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE. WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN. THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE. FRI...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019- 025>028-042-045-046-049>053-058. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024-033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...JUNG

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