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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 020358
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1058 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE CHOPPED BACK ON THE ADVYS AS THE PRECIP IS JUST ABOUT DONE -
EXCEPT OVER THE LAURELS. THE CENTRAL STRIPE OF COUNTIES UNDER THE
PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW WAS ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2 AM
EST...BUT MAY BE DROPPED ALTOGETHER VERY SOON IF THE PRECIP TAPERS
OFF APPRECIABLY AS ANTICIPATED. JUST A POCKET OR TWO OF FZDZ IN
THE SW NOW...AND THE LAURELS - WHERE IT IS RAINING RIGHT NOW - WILL
SEE THE RAIN TURN BACK TO SHSN SHORTLY AND CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED SOON IF THE PRECIP GETS LIGHTER OR VERY SPOTTY.

PREV...
ONE LAST PUSH OF SNOW SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AT THIS
TIME. THIS TOO SHALL PASS...IN ABOUT AN HOUR. BUT THE TAIL END OF
THE PRECIP WILL LINGER LONG INTO THE NIGHT IN THE LAURELS AND
UPSLOPE FLOW HAS STARTED ALREADY OVER THE REST OF THE NW MTNS AND
ALLEGHENIES. THUS...WE STILL NEED THE ADVY THERE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. THE RAIN AT JST WILL BE CHANGING BACK TO
SNOW IN A FEW HOURS AS THE TEMPS SLIDE DOWNWARD WITH THE WIND
SHIFT CURRENTLY MOVING THRU NE OH/NWRN PA. THE LOWER SUSQ HAS BEEN
FZRA FOR A WHILE BUT THE PRECIP IS ALMOST DONE. NEAR TERM MDLS AND
RADAR TRENDS MATCHING NICELY...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ONLY A
LITTLE SNIZZLE/FZDZ IS IN STORE THERE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FZDZ IS NOT QUITE DONE...AND ADVY STILL NECESSARY
THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF TO
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHORTLY. THOSE SHSN WILL LINGER
L;ONGEST IN THE LAURELS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. TEMPS
WON/T MOVE MUCH IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS...AND TEMPS ONLY FALL 10-15F OVER THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN ON MONDAY ONE
SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER THAN THE USUAL POST FRONTAL
SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS
WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERALL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LOTS
OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE FOR THE SE HALF IN THE AFTN...BUT CLOUDS MAY
HANG TOUGH ALL DAY OVER THE WESTERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS SOME TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

THINK MAIN TYPE OF PCPN WILL BE RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DID
PUT SMALL AMTS OF .01 ICE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THAT OBJECT
TEMPS WILL STILL LIKELY BE COLD. TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT MAY
DROP A LITTLE...BEFORE COMING BACK UP LATE.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED...TOOK SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE NW. TIGHT THICKNESS PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORT A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW PA
TO SE PA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY NW OF OUR AREA. LEFT POPS UP...THINK
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT.

A TREND TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...GIVEN
SPLIT FLOW.

PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO
BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE
LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DWINDLE ACROSS THE REGION. BACK EDGE OF
SNOW EXTENDING JUST ABOUT FROM KIPT TO KAOO TO KJST LINE AT 03Z.
ADDITIONALLY...MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION DRY
SLOTTED...AND JUST SOME PATCHY -FZDZ BEING REPORTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...
WITH NOTHING MUCH LEFT BY AROUND 10Z. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS KJST
AND KBFD...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY REGENERATE AS WNW FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT CIG
RESTRICTIONS TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN
ON COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS.

BRIEF RESPITE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLYING
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.
WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ019-
025>028-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG