Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 191001 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 601 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY. THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT MOISTURE STARVED. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SE OUT OF CWA THIS MORNING...BRINGING JUST A BKN-OVC HIGH DECK TO PA. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...NO SIG WX. TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI

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