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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 191001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.


&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SE OUT OF CWA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING JUST A BKN-OVC HIGH DECK TO PA. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WHILE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI