Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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105 FXUS61 KCTP 150312 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1012 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak wave of low pressure, over the Mid Atlantic coast late this evening, will push out to sea overnight. High pressure will build east into the region for Sunday, followed by milder conditions that will work back into the area for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Radar at 03Z shows the last of the significant precipitation has ended. Some patchy fzdz still being reported across the southern half of the state, but near term models indicate even this will end by 06Z, as drier nw flow develops. IR imagery already showing clearing skies working into the NW Mtns at 03Z. Expect this clearing trends to overspread the rest of central Pa overnight, as high pressure builds in from the Grt Lks. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... High pressure will build into the area from the Great Lakes on Sunday, supplying us with fair weather and relatively light nwrly wind with highs mostly in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The stubborn trough/upper low over the west coast will weaken and lift across the southern plains into the great lakes region as a pattern change begins. Ridge over the area tries to hold firm as a warm front lifts through Ohio River Valley early in the upcoming week. This frontal boundary will be preceded and accompanied by a light, wintry mix of precip during the morning hours Monday. A good portion of next week is shaping up to be mild and showery, as bulk of med range guidance shows a ridge slowly retreating off the East Coast as remnants of that west coast low get picked up by the northern stream and track across PA midweek. For Tue into Tue night, deep southerly flow ahead of that trough will bring a plume of anomalous PWATS over the region which supports the idea of showery (rain) and mild weather. As has been the case frequently lately, the GFS brings the trough through faster than the ECMWF. Winds turn westerly behind the system as flow turns more zonal, but with no cold air in sight, temps will remain mild and above freezing. Ridge re-establishes itself over the eastern U.S. for late week, as mild SW flow persists over the midwest. Guidance suggests energy will dive south along the west coast eventually helping to strengthen the building upper ridge over the east. We`ll be on the eastern side of this, so subtle shortwaves sliding into the Midwest will bring varying amounts of cloudiness to the west (less in the east) with low end chances for light showers. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 00Z TAFS sent. Areas of low clouds and fog with some freezing drizzle will be across much of the area this evening. Not much going on across the far north, near the NY border. Expect clearing late from the northwest. Some fog could form at BFD and JST near sunrise, if temperatures drop fast and reach the dewpoint. Dewpoints fcst to drop quickly near sunrise, frontal inversion could trap a thin layer of fog for a few hours. Most of Sunday should be VFR, as high pressure builds into the area. Will have to watch the potential for more freezing rain late Monday Night and early Tuesday. Outlook... Mon...VFR/No sig wx. Tue...Sub-VFR likely with freezing rain to rain. Wed...Sub-VFR possible with chc of rain showers. Thu...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for PAZ024>026-033>036-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Martin

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