Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 222200 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 600 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery northwest winds will usher in much colder air today. Occasional light showers are possible through tonight especially across the mountain areas and the north. The first touch of lake effect snow flakes are possible over some of the higher ridge tops...but no significant accumulations are expected. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Broad banding coming off LH and across LE pointing into the Laurels. Just a sprinkle left over Sullivan Co and moving E. Rest of the area is rather quiet wx- wise except for the noise of the wind and various rolling objects. Mixing and downslope warming/acceleration keeping the gusts rather coinstant in the U20s and L30s through the daylight. It may actually get windier this evening in the central mountains as the flow backs a little and the flow lifts the convergence zone to the north. Sprinkles and flurries will last into the night over the Alleghenies, again more in the south early, and in the north later tonight. The p-type may actually go to mainly snow for the latter half of the night. But, ground temps and the winds will make it tough to accumulate, as the ground will melt it, and the wind will keep it from accumulating on cars, etc. Mins will not be far from current temps in the northwestern half of the area since the wind will keep it mixed. Mins SE will be L40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Cross-lake flow lifts to the north and weakens. Just some sprinkles, flurries will affect the NW for the morning, but it should be dry for the rest of the day. The rest of the area will be better than today with a mostly sunny sky and temps 10-15F higher than Sat. But, the wind will still be gusty. A streak of showers (thunder?) should cross the north Sunday Night. It will be moving quickly and rain will not get any farther south than I-80. Mins will be in the 40s, and the wind will not die off much. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As a sprawling surface and mid-level system over eastern Quebec slowly unwinds early this week, broad cyclonic/northwest flow will continue to reinforce colder air over Pennsylvania. Weak shortwave sliding through early Monday will keep mention of light showers in the NW mountains, and keep breezy conditions in place through the day. High pressure gradually works in from the Great Lakes Tue into Wed keeping below normal temperatures in place. CAA comes to an end on Wed as upper ridge finally moves through. But that will be quickly followed by a compact low developing over the Midwest that will be knocking on our door by Thu. Expect showers to work in from the west later Wed night, with rain likely for much of the area on Thu. Model guidance quickly diverges after that, so confidence in next weekends forecast is rather low. But looks like potetially another quick shot of cooler air late week, with the GFS and EC battling it out for synoptic features by Sunday. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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21Z TAFS sent. Main issue will be the gusty winds, which will prevail at least into the early evening hours. The other issue will be the band of lake effect rain showers that will be from near UNV southward across JST and AOO. Earlier discussion below. Typical post-frontal flow is keeping sct shra in the lower elevs of the nw and shrasn in the higher elevs. Strong wind of 15-20kt and frequent gusts into the u20s-m30s will be the main trouble. Winds will back some to the W early tonight and sprinkles/flurries will become confined to KBFD. The rest of the area will be VFR, but still have all the wind. Less clouds on Sunday, but the wind will continue. Outlook... Sun Night...MVFR N with RA. VFR elsewhere. Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible NW. Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx. Thu...Widespread showers.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR/Steinbugl AVIATION...Dangelo/Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.