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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
575
FXUS61 KCTP 152000
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
400 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and less humid weather will move in for midweek before a
new frontal system approaches the area Thursday and Friday. High
pressure will clear things out for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The rain has cleared the SE zones. Elsewhere just a few light
showers are being seen by radar in the marginally unstable
airmass. Rising heights and weak ridging aloft will lead to
continued drying with skies expected to become clear to
scattered by this evening and overnight. Light winds and fair
skies will likely lead to late night valley fog formation.

Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s will be several deg warmer
than normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Wednesday continues to look dry after starting the day with a
fair amount of fog to burn off. With plenty of sunshine we warm
into the 70s and low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain over the region over the region into
Thursday. However the 00Z EC/GFS/NAM are in good agreement of
another 500 MB trough approaching the region through the Great
Lakes Thursday afternoon. This will correspond with a mid level
closed low that will move through the peninsula of Michigan and
bring a warm frontal boundary through the state Friday. This
will allow for higher Max temperatures and a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.
Models begin to diverge into the weekend but they have a cold
front moving through the mid Atlantic Friday night into Saturday
morning. Based on NBM and latest mid range guidance have trended
temperatures upward.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SERN zones continue to grudgingly improve as the rain moves off
to the east. Light winds assure improvement will remain slow as
no well defined push of dry air is expected. Elsewhere some weak
instability will lead to an some isolated pop up
showers/thunderstorm in a few spots for the remainder of the
afternoon. Briefly lower conditions could result if a terminal
takes a direct hit.

Fog is expected to redevelop overnight as clouds scattered out
and the wind remains light. impacts expected late tonight into
early Wednesday with some restrictions AOB airfield mins.

.OUTLOOK...

Thu-Fri...Sct Tstm impacts likely.

Sat...No sig wx.

Sun...Restrictions with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner
AVIATION...La Corte