Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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575 FXUS61 KCTP 152000 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 400 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and less humid weather will move in for midweek before a new frontal system approaches the area Thursday and Friday. High pressure will clear things out for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... The rain has cleared the SE zones. Elsewhere just a few light showers are being seen by radar in the marginally unstable airmass. Rising heights and weak ridging aloft will lead to continued drying with skies expected to become clear to scattered by this evening and overnight. Light winds and fair skies will likely lead to late night valley fog formation. Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s will be several deg warmer than normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Wednesday continues to look dry after starting the day with a fair amount of fog to burn off. With plenty of sunshine we warm into the 70s and low 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will remain over the region over the region into Thursday. However the 00Z EC/GFS/NAM are in good agreement of another 500 MB trough approaching the region through the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon. This will correspond with a mid level closed low that will move through the peninsula of Michigan and bring a warm frontal boundary through the state Friday. This will allow for higher Max temperatures and a better chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Models begin to diverge into the weekend but they have a cold front moving through the mid Atlantic Friday night into Saturday morning. Based on NBM and latest mid range guidance have trended temperatures upward.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SERN zones continue to grudgingly improve as the rain moves off to the east. Light winds assure improvement will remain slow as no well defined push of dry air is expected. Elsewhere some weak instability will lead to an some isolated pop up showers/thunderstorm in a few spots for the remainder of the afternoon. Briefly lower conditions could result if a terminal takes a direct hit. Fog is expected to redevelop overnight as clouds scattered out and the wind remains light. impacts expected late tonight into early Wednesday with some restrictions AOB airfield mins. .OUTLOOK... Thu-Fri...Sct Tstm impacts likely. Sat...No sig wx. Sun...Restrictions with scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte

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