Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230546 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 146 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The seasonably cool and wet weather pattern will continue tonight with improving conditions expected Monday into Tuesday. A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from mid week into the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 20z water vapor loop shows upper low ovr northern virginia. On radar, light stratiform rain continues to fall across most of central and southern Pa within region of lg scale forcing north of upper low. On the nw periphery of upper low, there has been enough diurnal heating/destabilization to support sct tsra ovr parts of Warren/Mckean counties. Even some pea sized hail reported arnd 3pm in Warren. The HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend, which has performed quite well in simulating the pcpn pattern over the past 24 hours, supports max POPs early tonight over the southwest and south central zones before a gradual north to south drying trend overnight, as upper low sinks south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Model agreement is good with respect to additional shortwave energy being absorbed into upper level trough crossing the Mid Atlantic piedmont tonight and eventually closing off as it starts to move northeastward along/off the coast on Monday. Expect an axis of scattered showers with a few embedded tstms to develop within a low level convergence axis on the backside of the closed low...with the greatest coverage during the afternoon hours when daytime heating combined with cool temps aloft/steep mid level lapse rates will result in marginal instability. HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southeast 1/2 of the area with the highest pcpn probs through 24/00z followed by a decreasing/drying trend into Monday night and Tuesday morning. Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Extended guidance is trending close to recent solutions..with the much heralded advertisement of eastern ridge/western trough holding sway and bringing the arrival of summer like temperatures and humidity. Slowly filling and lifting out upper low will be the focus early in the period and will still keep the mention of a shower possible overmainly eastern areas into Tuesday. By Wednesday... central PA will bein favorable position for drying and arrival of risingheights...delivering quite warm conditions as subtropical ridgestarts to influence our weather. The area remains susceptible tomainly afternoon isolated convection on Thu-Fri as zonal WSW flow in ring of fire regime could focus some activity. However... strong amplification of the upper ridge into central and eastern PA Sat and Sun should put a cap on convective chances for a time. The picture becomes muddled by late Sunday and Monday as rex blocking along the eastern seaboard may deliver a rich fetch of tropical moisture towards the mid atlantic and points northward by that least introducing a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms at that time (Mon-Tue). Northern stream energy sliding across the eastern GLAKS could combine with this moisture flow Mon night and Tuesday for more focused activity. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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For the 23/06z TAFs through 24/06z | Issued 145 am EDT 5/23/16 Mid level clouds over south central PA at 130 am. Band of showers over central NY moving sw. Main issue overnight is where there is some clearing...there is fog and ground fog. Expect a wide range of conditions overnight. 06Z TAFS sent. Earlier discussion below. Showers continue to rotate from east to west across the region as an upper level low pressure moves slowly to the southeast to the mid Atlantic states. Areas of fog and drizzle will drop any site to MVFR or briefly IFR overnight with light winds. As the upper low moves along the eastern seaboard Monday, enough instability remains for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Did not try to paint any specific location but rather a general chance of thunder /VCTS/. OUTLOOK...Tuesday-Friday 5/24-5/27 Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected. Thu-Fri...Chance of mainly P.M. showers/tstms.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...DeVoir/La Corte AVIATION...Martin/Steinbugl/Tyburski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.