Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 210505 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 105 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST-SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
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WATER VAPOR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWING SHORTWAVE OVR WESTERN PA ROTATING THRU BASE OF UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AT 05Z AND LATEST RAP/HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST DWINDLING SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ARND DAWN. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RAP/HRRR DATA...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY AND MTNS N OF IPT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WET GROUND...LGT WIND AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. DWPTS INDICATE MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE L/M60S ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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THE HRRR IS PRETTY POSITIVE ON LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE CONVECTION AND WAVE IT HAS IN THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO DRIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW OUR PW VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE MORNING AND ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE CAPE IN MOST MODELS COMES UP INTO THE 600 TO 1800JKG-1 RANGE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE STILL TENDS TO SUPPORT THIS. OLDER SREF AND OTHER MODELS SEEM TO IMPLY THIS WITH MORE MEMBERS WITH RAIN LATER IN DAY. IMPLIED LULL IS IN THE 09 TO 18Z TIMEFRAME.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CURRENT MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS US IN A RING OF FIRE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENHANCE THIS POSSIBILITY THOUGH LACK OF MOISTURE OF FRIDAY COULD INHIBIT CONVECTION. GEFS IS SHOWING PWAT ANOMALIES ON SATURDAY AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. CURRENT SET UP FOCUSES THREAT ON WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA...WHERE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE MAY BE ISSUES WITH AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO 03Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. DID NOT CHANGE A LOT ON THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE FROM THE EARLIER SET. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW NEAR BFD. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE EAST INTO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAIN ISSUE FOR AVN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND HIGH BLYR MSTR/SFC DEWPOINTS. FOR THIS...WENT CLOSE TO EARLIER FCST. DID LOWER CIGS IN SOME CASES. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND TIMING FROM LAST NIGHT. FOR THU...EXPECT LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS THE WIND SHIFT LINE AND DYNAMICS SHIFT EASTWARD. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL

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