Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230517 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 117 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery northwest winds continue to usher cold air overhead...bringing the first touch of lake effect snow flakes to the higher ridgetops. significant accumulations are expected. A weak disturbance will pass through Sunday night bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air that will last through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Light lake effect shower activity has finally diminished with little more than spotty drizzle or flurries likely occurring over the highest terrain of the northwest mountains at this hour. Gusty NW wind will continue overnight in the strong gradient behind the departing low moving through Maine. Flurries or light rain showers will still be possible overnight over the northwest thanks to the deep and well aligned NW flow...which will last through late morning Sunday. Mins will not be far from current temps in the northwestern half of the area since the wind will keep it mixed. Mins SE will be L40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Cross-lake flow lifts to the north and weakens. Just some sprinkles, flurries will affect the NW for the morning, but it should be dry for the rest of the day. The rest of the area will be better than today with a mostly sunny sky and temps 10-15F higher than Sat. But, the wind will still be gusty. A streak of showers (thunder?) should cross the north Sunday Night. It will be moving quickly and rain will not get any farther south than I-80. Mins will be in the 40s, and the wind will not die off much. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As a sprawling surface and mid-level system over eastern Quebec slowly unwinds early this week, broad cyclonic/northwest flow will continue to reinforce colder air over Pennsylvania. Weak shortwave sliding through early Monday will keep mention of light showers in the NW mountains, and keep breezy conditions in place through the day. High pressure gradually works in from the Great Lakes Tue into Wed keeping below normal temperatures in place. CAA comes to an end on Wed as upper ridge finally moves through. But that will be quickly followed by a compact low developing over the Midwest that will be knocking on our door by Thu. Expect showers to work in from the west later Wed night, with rain likely for much of the area on Thu. Model guidance quickly diverges after that, so confidence in next weekends forecast is rather low. But looks like potentially another quick shot of cooler air late week, with the GFS and EC battling it out for synoptic features by Sunday. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 03Z TAFS sent. Minor adjustments made. The main issue overnight into Sunday will be gusty winds. The other issue will be the band of lake effect rain showers that will be from near UNV southward across JST and AOO this evening. Outlook... Sun Night...MVFR N with RA. VFR elsewhere. Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible early. Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx. Thu...Widespread showers. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/La Corte NEAR TERM...DeVoir/La Corte SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR/Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.