Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCTP 230517
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
117 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Blustery northwest winds continue to usher cold air
overhead...bringing the first touch of lake effect snow flakes to
the higher ridgetops. However...no significant accumulations are
A weak disturbance will pass through Sunday night bringing a
reinforcing shot of cold air that will last through mid week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Light lake effect shower activity has finally diminished with
little more than spotty drizzle or flurries likely occurring over
the highest terrain of the northwest mountains at this hour.
Gusty NW wind will continue overnight in the strong gradient
behind the departing low moving through Maine. Flurries or light
rain showers will still be possible overnight over the northwest
thanks to the deep and well aligned NW flow...which will last
through late morning Sunday.
Mins will not be far from current temps in the northwestern half
of the area since the wind will keep it mixed. Mins SE will be
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Cross-lake flow lifts to the north and weakens. Just some
sprinkles, flurries will affect the NW for the morning, but it
should be dry for the rest of the day. The rest of the area will
be better than today with a mostly sunny sky and temps 10-15F
higher than Sat. But, the wind will still be gusty.
A streak of showers (thunder?) should cross the north Sunday
Night. It will be moving quickly and rain will not get any farther
south than I-80. Mins will be in the 40s, and the wind will not
die off much.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As a sprawling surface and mid-level system over eastern Quebec
slowly unwinds early this week, broad cyclonic/northwest flow
will continue to reinforce colder air over Pennsylvania. Weak
shortwave sliding through early Monday will keep mention of light
showers in the NW mountains, and keep breezy conditions in place
through the day.
High pressure gradually works in from the Great Lakes Tue into
Wed keeping below normal temperatures in place. CAA comes to an
end on Wed as upper ridge finally moves through. But that will be
quickly followed by a compact low developing over the Midwest that
will be knocking on our door by Thu. Expect showers to work in
from the west later Wed night, with rain likely for much of the
area on Thu.
Model guidance quickly diverges after that, so confidence in next
weekends forecast is rather low. But looks like potentially another
quick shot of cooler air late week, with the GFS and EC battling
it out for synoptic features by Sunday.
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
03Z TAFS sent.
Minor adjustments made.
The main issue overnight into Sunday will be gusty winds.
The other issue will be the band of lake effect rain showers that
will be from near UNV southward across JST and AOO this evening.
Sun Night...MVFR N with RA. VFR elsewhere.
Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible early.
Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx.
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/La Corte