Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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749 FXUS61 KCTP 201833 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 233 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring clear skies and seasonal temperatures to the region tonight. Look for partly cloudy skies with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms on Monday. A strong cold front will approach the region later on Tuesday, bringing a chance of stronger thunderstorms with it. Cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure overhead with strong subsidence leading to clear skies overnight. low temperatures fairly close to seasonal norms. Look for patchy valley fog close to sunrise.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure moves east with southerly and more warm and humid flow returning. Model show a weak shortwave drifting across the area during the afternoon and this combined with heating will trigger a few thunderstorms. Have increased pops to account for this. Any convection will decrease quickly after sunset with a warm and muggy night as area in the warm sector ahead of cold front.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The big weather maker looks to be a potent late summer cold front that latest timing shows passing through the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday. After a surge of heat Monday and Tuesday, with some southern locations possibly nudging 90 each day, the strong front will bring a refreshingly cool and dry airmass to the region for the second half of the week. The biggest question will be severe potential with the front. Latest timing shows the front just moving through central Ohio by Tuesday evening. The SREF and GEFS develop very little CAPE near the cold front and into central PA, keeping a finger of unstable air confined mainly to the coastal plain well out ahead of the front. So it remains to be seen if parameters can line up for widespread severe storms with the actual front as at this point it doesn`t seem like the best set up despite the magnitude of the airmass difference and strength of the wind fields. Once again the models are hinting that the coastal plain may be where the action is as the best CAPE and shear are aligned there associated with the lee-side troughing. The remainder of the week into the weekend looks to be cool and mainly dry as a sprawling high moves slowly eastward out of southern Canada. Interesting to note that the deterministic models show 850 temps as cold as 3C just north of the Canadian border behind the cold front, a reminder the change in seasons is not all that far away. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions though Monday morning. Some valley fog formation closer to sunrise Monday will briefly lower vsby before VFR conditions return. Scattered thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon. Potential for widespread showers and storms later Tuesday, perhaps on the strong to severe side. Strong cold front moves across the region. .OUTLOOK... Mon...Mainly VFR, but restrictions in morning fog. Tue...Thunderstorm impacts likely into the overnight. Wed...Morning SHRA...then becoming VFR Thu...VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Ross

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