Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 282253 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 653 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD EVENING. UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST HAS SPREAD A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. SATL TRENDS AND LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORT A MCLDY FCST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPS THAN RECENT NIGHTS AND LESS CHC OF FOG. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE NW MTNS...WHERE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 40S AND RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION DURING MONDAY...AS REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW PASS SOUTH OF PA. THUS...HAVE PLAYED UP BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 0-5 PERCENT RANGE. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE 70S EVERYWHERE BASED ON LATEST ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TO A LARGE DEGREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....WITH THE EC STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A WEAK FRONT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NW MTNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST...00Z U.S. AND EC MODEL GUIDANCE /AND GEFS/ STILL SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME CARVED OUT ACROSS THE ERN U.S DURING THE TUES-THUR TIME- FRAME. MOST SOLUTIONS WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EACH OF THOSE 3 DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS BECOMING CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC...AND A RELATIVELY WEAK 1008-1010MB LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA OR DELMARVA COAST. TRIMMED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT LLVLS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AND MILDER NIGHTS. EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER REACHES OF EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGING SLIPS BACK IN FOR LATE WEEK AS A DECENT WAVE SLIDES SE FROM CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW /THAT LIFTED INTO CENTRAL CANADA FROM CALIFORNIA/. AT THIS TIME...EC WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER. APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS THAT PCPN ARRIVES INTO WRN PA ON FRIDAY...AND SIG PCPN WITH THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE STATE EARLY ON SAT. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH CLDS FOR 21Z TAF PACKAGE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS WITH HIGH SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS MONDAY. OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS. THU...NO SIG WX. FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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