Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 190832 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 432 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL... SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS OR NAEFS. A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED. OUTLOOK... TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE. SUN-MON...NO SIG WX. TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER AVIATION...TYBURSKI

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