Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 310319 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1119 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA...WITH LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS BEING ENJOYED ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING THROUGH THE 60S SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE ZIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS AND WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN PA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A MOISTURE CHALLENGED TROF MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONSENSUS KEEPS THINGS DRY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS. DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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11PM UPDATE... OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SUN...MAINLY VFR. MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE

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