Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220926 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 526 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will stay anchored across the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeastern States through at least the middle of next week. This will continue of dry and unseasonably warm weather to Pennsylvania. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The high clouds associated with Jose have helped limit fog formation over most of the region tonight, which makes it the only real difference in sensible weather we have had during an overnight for the better part of a week. For today, forecast soundings show the high clouds thinning throughout the day so a hazy sunshine will be the rule during yet another unseasonably mild day. It will continue fair overnight with the redundant mention of late night valley fog is in store for the region. Lows generally in the 50s will be 5-10 deg warmer than normal. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... Dry and warm with comfortable humidity. Not much to elaborate on. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... It looks to remain dry into at least Wednesday as the ridge that kept Jose locked offshore protects us for several more days. Weak flow at night should allow for valley fog to form and to greet morning commuters. At this time it looks like the remnants of Jose will remain offshore with the next chance for rain locally being with a weakening cold front that the latest guidance brings our way for perhaps later wednesday into Thursday. The models agree in keeping the upper ridge the dominant feature into midweek, before northern stream energy starts to chew away at our high heights. The ECMWF is faster in bringing a shortwave through the NERN US while the GFS is slower but carves out an intense upper low dropping into the OH Valley for next weekend. This feature is not in the GEFS nor is it in the ECENS so a flatter faster moving shortwave seem the better idea. Either way it will lead to a cool down by the end of the week into next weekend. As for once mighty Maria, NHC models keep it well east off the coast as it heads north later next week. The ECENS shows the closest approach to the eastern seaboard, bringing the storm about 100 miles east of Cape Hatteras around Thursday. It will give us something to watch over the next week or so. It`s worth noting, the storm will be moving over waters that have been churned up by Jose . While still a large and dangerous storm, between the shear and colder waters, it has seen its best days intensity-wise. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Like yesterday, just starting to get some fog in the normally foggy locations like BFD. Some minor adjustments to the 09Z TAFS. Earlier discussion below. Did edge off fog some, not even seeing any fog at foggy sites such as SEG as of 1 AM. The combination of high clouds, a little breeze at times, and mainly less moisture in the airmass than earlier in the week, will result in less fog this morning, than earlier in the week. This was the case yesterday morning. More detail below. Light wind will allow valley fog to form across northern PA overnight. Model guidance and persistence forecasting indicate KBFD is very likely to experience IFR/LIFR conditions early Friday morning. Further south, model guidance suggests a veil of high clouds may become thick enough to temper the radiational cooling and fog potential. However, based on falling temps and dewpoint depressions this evening, believe a period of IFR/LIFR conditions is likely at KIPT and possible (~50 pct) at KUNV/KAOO around dawn. The odds of of significant reductions at KJST/KLNS/KMDT appear very low. Any early fog should burn off between 13Z-15Z, then model data supports a near certainty of VFR conditions and light wind everywhere for Friday afternoon, as high pressure remains over the region. .Outlook... Sat-Tue...Patchy AM valley fog possible.
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&& .CLIMATE... Astronomical Fall/Autumnal Equinox begins at 4:02 PM this afternoon. See if you can stand an egg on its head. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE...La Corte

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