Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251705 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 105 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weather systems will impact Central Pennsylvania on Thursday and over the weekend before conditions dry out to end the month. Rain arriving late Wednesday night may start or mix with snow or sleet over the northern tier. Temperatures should average near to slightly below normal with some moderation likely into early November. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As yesterday, the timing of a shortwave has increased/expanded the cloud cover during the morning instead of the expected diminishing trend due to mixing and downslope warming. Prev... Residual stratocu with a few lake effect showers over the NW Alleghenies should give way to decreasing winds and clearing skies tonight as high pressure moves into the area. Upgraded to freeze warning tonight which will likely end the growing season. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A surge of WAA pcpn ahead of low pressure tracking through the OH Valley should overspread most of the area early Thursday. Have increased POPs to near 100 percent based on multi-model consensus and NMB output. As the WAA pcpn encounters a retreating cold sector associated with departing high pressure, a period snow or rain/snow mix may be likely at the onset over northern PA. Confidence in early-season accumulations is low with the greatest risk over the highest elevations. Timing would be favorable during the late night and early morning hours. Despite QPF amounts in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range, limited gridded snowfall to less than 0.5 inch given marginal boundary layer profiles and surface temperatures. Steadier rain should taper to rain/snow showers Thursday night on the backside of the low. Northwest winds should also increase as the low deepens into New England. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low pressure center will move across the Lake Erie area thursday with warm advection across central PA. Mixed precipitation in the morning in the northeast will change over to rain. The southern areas will break into the warm sector earlier in the day with precipitation becoming scattered showers. Associated cold front will sweep across PA Thursday evening with colder northwest flow and maybe some lake-effect showers overnight mixing again with some snow in the higher elevations across the central northern tier. Flow changes during the day as winds begin to veer already in advance of the next system approaching the Great Lakes. So brief high pres ridge across Central PA Friday. This next system looks to track a bit further north giving us a warming trend. Northern tier may see some precip as the warm front pushes northeast. Southern areas will be mild and relatively dry. Another dry period will likely follow the weekend system with signs of a warming trend into the first week of November.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Persistent lake band rolled through the local area and still had enough punch to make the ground wet, despite dry llvls. It looks like it is finally drying up as it continues to slip S. Temps actually a little ahead of fcst curve, but 925/850mb temps should limit mixing/warming so that sfc temps should not turn out all that much warmer. Prev... Moisture flowing off of Lk Erie will continue to produce a varying amount of stratocu across Central PA into this morning with the most persistent cloudiness and lowest cigs across the higher terrain from KBFD south to KIPT. Also due to this moisture, MVFR cigs have developed at BFD as well as scattered rain showers. Both of those should persist through the morning, before the flow weakens and shifts by early afternoon. Today should be similar to Monday, as the flow changes little in direction but does get a little lighter. Diurnal heating and resulting mixing within deepening boundary layer will cause cigs to rise during the day, with widespread VFR conditions through the afternoon Outlook... Wed...Patchy AM fog possible. Thu...Rain/low cigs possible. Fri...AM showers/low cigs possible W Mtns. Sat...Showers/MVFR CIGS possible NW Mtns. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ026>028- 035-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Watson AVIATION...Dangelo/Ceru is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.