Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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621 FXUS61 KCTP 062129 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 429 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... VISIBLE SATL TRENDS SHOW MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND PEELING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH MILD SW FLOW PUSHING TEMPS NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...OR +1-3F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNDERNEATH A NARROW SFC RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN BETWEEN DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW. THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS AGAINST IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF PROBS. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR PSBL IN -SN. WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST. SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300...DIMINISHING LATE. THU...A.M. -SHSN TAPERING OFF NW. MVFR TO VFR CIGS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...EVANEGO AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL

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