Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261706 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 106 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY...AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ANOTHER NEARLY PERFECT LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN PROGRESS WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS...A LIGHT BREEZE AND HUMIDITY THAT IS ONLY STARTING TO NUDGE INTO THE NOTICEABLE RANGE. HIGHS TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR 80 ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND IN THE LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE OF THE RARE TIMES THIS AUGUST. A FEW DEGREES WARMER...OTHERWISE THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO LAST NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THAT WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE IN SAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE DWINDLING RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR INDICATES THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND WEAKENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR CONVECTION WHICH SEEMS LIKE IT WILL HAVE SOME CAPE TO WORK WITH. THE WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...SO THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND GUST OR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. OPERATIONAL NAM COOKS UP CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000J WHILE THE SREF AND GEFS ARE MORE MODEST...BUT STILL NOT NEGLIGIBLE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY NUDGING 90 FOR THE LAST TIME THIS SEASON OVER THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. THE BULK OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REACH 80 OR ABOVE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...FOLLOWING THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT...WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW...TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IT WILL BE DEJA-VU ALL OVER AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION...BUT THE EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING IN AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH THRU THE AIRSPACE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...LATE-NIGHT-EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE

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