Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 252323 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 623 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH OUR REGION WITH SOME AREAS OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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THE ARCTIC AIR IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO MY NWRN ZONES AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND TN VALLEY. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST...TO THE LOWER- MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND LATE FEB SUN ANGLE SHOULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON FRIDAY - ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST. AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO DEGREE H850 LINE.. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRSPACE LATER THIS EVENING. LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW STRATO CU CLOUDS. THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. MDT STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD SNOW SHOWERS. FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE. MON...WINTRY PCPN PSBL WITH REDUCTIONS...IMPROVING CONDS LATE. && .CLIMATE... THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...TYBURSKI AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER CLIMATE...

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