Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
995 FXUS61 KCTP 191144 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 744 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH A MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FROM THE EASTERN COAL REGION INTO THE POCONOS. A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRIP THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 09Z RADAR SHOWS WHAT IS LEFT OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS MOVG EWD ALONG RDG-LNS LINE. WILL TAPER DOWN POPS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. SUBTLE BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT HAS ALLOWED MARINE AIR/EASTERLY LLVL FLOW TO REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE SUSQ RIVER WITH WDSPRD LOW CIGS AND FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. TO THE WEST ALONG THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WEAK BUT MOIST UPSLOPE IS PROMOTING LOW CIGS AND FOG ALONG THE RT 219 CORRIDOR. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL TEAM WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE HUDSON BAY UPPER TROUGH TO FLATTEN THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF THIS MORNING...STRONG PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR CONVECTION WITH HRRR SHOWING DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER BY 18-19Z. THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK JUST CLIPS EAST-CENTRAL PA FROM THE COAL REGION ENEWD INTO THE POCONOS WITH INCREASING SHEAR TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER DESPITE WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...CANT RULE OUT THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL IN MORE CAPE-DRIVEN STORMS WITHIN STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LWR SQV. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD POSE MINOR FLOOD THREAT PROBABLY MORE SO CONFINED TO URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS VS. SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY OVER FAR ERN SXNS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA AFTER 00Z AS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A COOLER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO GRIP THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 15-20F COOLER THAN TODAY. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT WITH A NW BREEZE ADDING TO THE RELATIVE CHILL. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY ESEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES THU-FRI WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THU. A SFC LOW IS FCST TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...OWING TO VARIABILITY IN THE HANDLING OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR. CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR FROST THU MORNING IN THE NORTH AS THE PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE OR CONDUCIVE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONFIDENCE IN FROST POTENTIAL IS MUCH HIGHER ON SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH-CNTRL ZONES WITH A LARGE AREA OF HP FCST TO SETTLE OVER CENTRAL PA. WILL ADD FROST WORDING TO THE HWO FOR THE 3 ZONES THAT ARE STILL NOT IN THE GROWING SEASON /MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK/. DRY WX SHOULD HOLD ON UNTL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. AN E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR PCPN AS IT PIVOTS AND LIFTS NWD IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO THIS PAST WEEKEND. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE ROBUST NATIONAL SUPERBLEND PROTOTYPE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH FAVORS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE AREA BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATOCU IS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF SITES. EXPECT FOR THIS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LIFTING BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. IFR AT BFD AND JST WILL PERSIST AS WELL AND BY 14Z SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR ADN BY 16Z BE VFR. THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS EASTERN PA ARND MIDDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS...AS A GUSTY WEST WIND BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD MIX DOWN STRONTER WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.