Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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342 FXUS61 KCTP 241111 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 711 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 AM update: Just a little fog this morning but it should burn away very quickly. Radar returns off to the east are most likely not reaching the ground and, if so, are just a fast-moving sprinkle. No changes at this time. Prev: Upper low will slide up to Boston harbor today. The cooler air aloft will still result in some instability showers this afternoon. LI`s barely go negative - probably because all the instability will be below 10kft. A cap about that high or even lower should keep things suppressed. But, a few shra could pop over the ridges - mainly in the SE third of the area - and drift SSE. will hold POPs to 20s east of the Main Stem Susquehanna River. Otherwise, the ridging starting to translate eastward will keep the cu down over western PA. Maxes should get back to where they were today and maybe add two degrees due to less clouds and very slightly warmer 8H temps. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... After any diurnal convection dwindles at or before sunset, the rest of the night should be quiet. Some patchy fog is possible but dewpoints fairly low/dry. Sinking motion is maximized on Wednesday as the upper ridge is nearly overhead. It should be a good day to make some vitamin D - especially south of I-80. Just a thin layer of high clouds may strafe the north. We should add another 2-4F onto the maxes from Tuesday. SREF mean pops start to climb Wednesday night with convection sliding in from the west. clouds increasing from the west Wed night will probably keep mins in the 55-60F range or 5-10F above normals. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity. By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad wsw flow aloft. Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow. The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to be above normal through the end of the month. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Main change to the 12Z TAF package is VCSH for the LNS and MDT TAF sites. Earlier discussion below. Still a breeze in spots. No fog expected now that we have some breeze. Overall a nice spring day with VFR conditions. Perhaps a shower across the far east. OUTLOOK... Wed...No sig wx expected. Thu-Sat...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Martin

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