Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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444 FXUS61 KCTP 230757 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 257 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area and last through the weekend. Another cold front will push through Pennsylvania on Saturday. A very dry period is in store through the beginning of December. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... Stratus continues over most of the area this morning. Winds have decreased and a quiet night for the region expected with seasonally cool morning lows. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... High pressure at the surface will ensure dry weather and light wind for Thanksgiving...despite passage of upper front which will bring an increase of mid and high level clouds especially in the afternoon hours. Max temps should range from the mid 30s over the northwest mountains, to the low 40s in the Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence of fair and seasonable weather Thursday night into Friday, as all guidance continues to indicate weak ridging aloft in advance of next system. Expect a somewhat milder day Friday, as surface high passes off the coast and return southwest flow ensues. Relatively good agreement among med range guidance into Sat/Sun, with a cold front passage likely midday Saturday after a mild Fri night. Scattered rain showers will likely accompany the front on Sat, followed by a period of lake effect snow showers Sat night into Sunday, as another blast of seasonably chilly air charges across the relatively mild waters of the Grt Lks. ECENS and GEFS both support below normal temperatures Sunday, as deep upper level trough swings over the northeast states. All signs are pointing toward fair and milder weather early next week, as upper ridging is progged along the eastern seaboard in all med range guidance. The guidance diverges by midweek with GFS bringing a cold front and deeper trough through, while the EC splits the energy off into a closed low that remains back over the central U.S. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Bkn-Ovc layer of MVFR to low-end VFR strato cu clouds will persist across the Central and Northwest Mountains of Pennsylvania through the mid morning hours today. Afterward, the low-mid level ridge of high pressure just off to our west will flatten out and drift over the state this afternoon and evening. After the strato cu dissipates later this morning as the mean low level flow backs around to 240-260 degrees, an area of bkn alto cu (based at 080-120 kft agl) and cirrus will slide east from the Ohio Valley and across Central PA and the Susq Valley this afternoon and evening as milder air aloft streams east out of the Upper Midwest. The WNW to WSW winds throughout the TAF forecast period will be generally less than 10 kts. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail into Friday. The overall pattern favors no big weather systems through the upcoming weekend and into early next week, but frontal passages with limited moisture are expected every few days. Have a good Thanksgiving. Outlook... Fri...No sig wx expected. Sat...Chance of rain/snow showers. Sun...Chance of snow showers across the NW in the morning. Otherwise no sig wx expected. Mon...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...Ross SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/RXR AVIATION...Lambert/Martin

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