Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260531 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 131 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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FIRST OF TWO OR THREE SPOKES OF DIFF PVA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A DISTINCT MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...WILL BE OVER THE NW MTNS EARLY TODAY AND TAKING A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES OF NW PENN...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MTNS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE REGION MAINLY WEST OF KBFD. ELSEWHERE...STRATO/ALTOCU CLOUD COVER NEAR AND JUST SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL PARTIALLY DISSOLVE WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING. A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH BASED SC OR AC CLOUDS WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BUT SKIES THERE WILL VARY BETWEEN CLEAR AND PTLY CLOUDY. LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN PENN THAT SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK WILL SEE PATCHY FOG FORMING AS TEMPS SLIDE INTO THE U40S AND LOWER 50S...NARROWING THE T/TD SPREAD TO 0-2 DEG F. LATEST SREF...LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW 05Z DWPT DEPRESSIONS AND TIME OF YEAR...HAVE NO REASON TO DOUBT IT. IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL EARLY MORNING FOR LATE AUGUST WITH LOWS FROM THE U40S OVER PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE COLD NW FLOW IS USED TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT QPF OVER NWRN PA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WILL EMPLOY A BLEND OF THE HIGHER SREF POPS AND LOWER GEFS CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FAVORING THE AREA TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CLEARFIELD UP TO ELMIRA IN SOUTHERN NY. THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA WILL SEE MORE OF A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE SNEAKING OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE CHILLER THAN TODAY BY AN AVERAGE OF 3-5 DEG. REFRESHING BUT COOL FOR LATE SUMMER.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A DEEP UPPER LVL LOW WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOME GUIDANCE SHOW A SYSTEM TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. MID SHIFT PUT SOME SHOWERS IN...THUS I LEFT THEM IN. 12Z GFS40 SHOWS MORE RIDGING ALOFT...THUS HARD TO SEE MUCH GOING ON...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER TO SUNDAY. THE MAIN CHANGE I MADE WAS TO UP TEMPS SOME IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE OTHER CHANGE...WAS TO CLEAN UP THE LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR SOME PERIODS...ESPECIALLY NEXT MONDAY. SUSPECT THIS RESULTED FROM THE UPGRADE TO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM YESTERDAY...A NEW BUILD UPDATE. I COULD NOT FIND ANY GUIDANCE TODAY THAT WOULD SUPPORT ANYTHING THAT DRY WORKING SE INTO PA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY VFR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MVFR STRATOCU WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BRADFORD AND JOHNSTOWN. OUTLOOK... WED...MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHOWERS NW MTNS. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX EXPECTED. THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

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