Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 231021 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 621 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of Pennsylvania through Monday. High pressure will build southeast into the region for the middle of next week. A cold front will likely push southeast in the state toward the end of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across central Pa will continue to be the focus for scattered showers this morning. Upstream radar trends and near term model data support the highest POPs through midday across the northwest mountains southeast through the central mountains. Diurnal heating/destabilization, combined with large scale forcing ahead of approaching upper trough, should support an increasing coverage of showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. NCAR ensemble CAPEs near 2000 J/kg and moderate 0-6km shear of around 30kts point toward a damaging wind and hail threat this afternoon through early evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Large scale forcing ahead of upper trough should sustain convection well into tonight, despite a weakening trend after sunset. CAMS indicate excessive rainfall is a possibility by this evening in vicinity surface frontal boundary over the Susq Valley. Upper trough will pivot through on Monday, bringing a good chance of additional showers/storms to northeast Pa, while large scale subsidence in its wake is likely to suppress convection across the southwest part of the state. With the exception of northeast Pa, Monday should feature more sunshine than today, as much lower PWAT air flows into the region.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Med range guidance continues to support a forecast of fair and cooler weather for mid week, as high pressure builds southeast across Pa. Based on GEFS 850 temps and low PWATs, daytime highs and overnight lows to average a bit below climo Tue/Wed. Moderating temps and increasing humidity expected late in the week ahead of an approaching cold front. Some model timing differences with the cold front, so will mention chance of showers/tstorms both Thu and Fri. Odds currently favor fair/cooler weather by next weekend, but NAEFS and ECENS both stall cold front just off the east coast. Therefore, will maintain a slight chance of showers through the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions impacting mainly NW half of area will linger into the mid/late morning hours before improving (hanging on latest from KJST-KBFD). Quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across central PA will continue to be the focus for scattered showers through the midday hours, especially north of I-80. By this afternoon, conditions should be generally VFR across central PA. But diurnal heating/destabilization, combined with large scale forcing ahead of approaching upper trough, should support fairly widespread tstorm development late in the day and into this evening - especially over eastern half - with local restrictions. Tonight, restrictions return in wake of trough axis, with IFR conditions likely in the north and east, and MVFR in the central mountains. .OUTLOOK... Tonight...Cig restrictions likely. Scattered TSRA/SHRA. Mon...AM restrictions likely. Scattered TSRA. Tue-Wed...AM restrictions north/west. Otherwise no sig wx. Thu...Chance of afternoon TSRA/SHRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...RXR

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