Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 181429 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 929 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Ohio Valley this morning will build east across Pennsylvania later today. An anomalous upper level ridge will build off the east coast next week, with a dying cold front pushing into the state on Wednesday, then returning north as a warm front late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Patchy lingering flurries and even some local freezing drizzle in the pre-dawn hours have now dissipated over the Laurels. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build east into the region later today, supplying fair and mild weather. Latest satellite imagery and model soundings indicate stratus should linger over the mountains through midday. Elsewhere, expect skies to become mostly sunny this morning. Mixing down ensemble mean 925mb temps of around 0C translate to expected max temps from the upper 30s over the high terrain of the Alleghenies, to the mid 40s over the Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... High pressure will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight as a warm front approaches from the Ohio Valley. A developing southerly breeze should keep temps from falling much tonight, especially over the western portion of the forecast area. However, lingering snow cover and lighter winds over the eastern counties will likely allow readings to dip a bit below guidance with min temps between 25-30F east of the Susq River. Model guidance indicating a good chance of light rain Monday, as warm front lifts into western Pa, while wedge of cooler air remains trapped east of the Appalachians. Highest POPS of 90 pct are painted across the northwest mountains, where best isentropic lift indicated at nose of low level jet. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... All medium range guidance continues to show a building anomalous upper ridge along the east coast next week, with central Pa breaking into the warm sector Tue and Wed. Record high temps appear quite possible Tue/Wed, when ensemble mean 850 temps jump to around 12C. Even conservatively mixing to just 925mb would support max temps between 70-75F over much of the area. Both 00Z ECENS and NAEFS indicate a dying cold front will push through the region Wed PM, accompanied by a chance of showers. This boundary will likely stall just south of Pa before returning north as a warm front late in the week with a renewed chance of rain. Med range models do indicate there could be just enough low level cold air for the potential of some fzra Thu night or early Friday across northern Pa. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure over the Ohio Valley this morning will build east across Pennsylvania later today. Ceiling restrictions will linger into the late morning over the western mountains before clouds get whittled away. Central/East will be primarily VFR today and tonight - after scattered MVFR visibilities improve by 14z. Winds will be gusty for next couple of hours western half before gradient lessens and winds drop below 8 mph. High pressure will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight as a warm front approaches from the Ohio Valley. A developing southerly breeze will bring LLWS in late, especially over the western portion. This will also aid in spreading stratocu restrictions in from the SW predawn Monday, with light rain and more widespread restrictions prevailing during the day Monday. Outlook... Mon...Restrictions return in light rain, especially northern half. Tue...Restrictions early east. Scattered rain showers and restrictions NW. Wed...Restrictions likely in rain showers, mainly NW half. Thu...Restrictions probable in rain showers. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR

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