Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 180352 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1152 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Southwest flow aloft will keep much above normal temperatures over the region right through midweek. Cooler and unsettled conditions will arrive by late week with showers expected Thursday and Friday...and lasting into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A few streaks of mid clouds overhead right now should dissipate and slide to the east. Ridge-running MCS rolling into far upstate NY - well to the north of the CWA - in a scenario reminiscent of mid-summer. The 60 depoints are a throwback as well. Other than sky tweaks, all seems well handled. Get the fireworks ready `cuz it will be 10 or more degrees warmer tomorrow than on July 4th. Prev... Surface cold front lying across the Fingerlakes region this afternoon. Clouds hung tough for a good part of the day but are now breaking as southwesterly flow increases across the region and boundary layer convergence has dissipated. Extremely warm this afternoon with temperatures pushing 70F up north and nearing 80F southeast. Expect fair and mild conditions to persist overnight with mins well above normal again. Temperatures will range through the 50s to the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Strong southwest flow will keep warmer than normal temperatures across the region Wednesday. We expect record breaking warmth across the region on Tuesday as temperatures warm into the lower to mid 80s over central and southern areas. Maxes across the north will reach the mid to upper 70s. A weak cold front (with very shallow and just slightly cooler air) will slide east through the region during the day Wednesday with just a few showers possible...mainly across the northwest half of the state. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A weakening frontal boundary moving into Central PA Tuesday night is fcst to become quasi-stationary near the Mason-Dixon line early Wednesday before pivoting back to the north as a warm front Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The frontal boundary should be a focus for occasional shower activity, with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly Wednesday afternoon which agrees with the SPC general Tstm convective outlook. The main sensible weather highlight through midweek will remain the unseasonably mild to record warm temperatures. A transition toward a period of wet weather followed by colder (near-to-below normal) temperatures should begin on Thursday. The models and ensembles continue to show some differences with the upper trough evolving from the Plains into the Eastern U.S. which has implications on the track/timing of developing surface low and trailing frontal boundary. The trend over the past 36-48 hours has been for a more progressive system which keeps whatever tropical entity/low that may form north of the Bahamas off the Mid Atlc Coast. Thursday could turn out much warmer than fcst for some locations in the warm sector. Used a consensus multi-model blend for POPs in an attempt to best mitigate the spread in the guidance. The computer model data eventually arrives at a seasonably colder and mainly dry west/northwest flow pattern into the weekend. Max POPs are fcst in the climatologically favored areas downwind of Lake Erie and over the higher terrain of the Alleghenies. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Patchy fog will develop again tonight with BFD, IPT and LNS seeing IFR cigs and vsbys. IPT is already seeing IFR cigs and vsbys and that should persist overnight. MDT could see MVFR cigs early tomorrow morning. Patchy fog should develop around 10Z and persist through mid morning at LNS. Any restrictions will lift by 16Z and VFR will dominate through the afternoon. Tomorrow evening a cold front will approach with showers possible after 00Z Wednesday. The weak cold front will push through on Wednesday, bringing showers and cig restrictions to the NW mtns starting Tuesday night and likely restrictions into central mtns on Wed. Outlook... Tue...Patchy AM fog. Tue night...Reductions NW half with chance of showers. Wed...Reductions NW half and potentially into central mtns. Thu...Chance of showers, esp west. Fri...Chance of showers. Sat...Chance of showers.
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&& .CLIMATE... Daily record maximum temperatures are in jeopardy for 10/18. Here are the current records: Harrisburg: 82 in 1908 Williamsport: 82 in 1964 Altoona: 81 in 1998 Bradford: 75 in 1963 State College: 83 in 1938* *10/18 high will be officially recorded on 10/19 (7am-7am COOP) report so used 10/19 for record purposes. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Lambert NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir/Lambert SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Lambert LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...DeVoir/Ceru CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.