Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270236 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1036 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... WEAK SFC CFRONT OVER SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAS MELDED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 1 TO 2.25 INCHES INVOF BELLEFONTE /CENTRE COUNTY/ AND MOUNT JOY /LANCASTER COUNTY/ RESPECTIVELY. THESE VALUES ARE SPOT ON WITH DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST 7 HOURS. SOME PINPOINT ESTIMATES OF 3.5 TO NEARLY 5 INCHES OCCURRED ACROSS NW LANCASTER...AND SE MCKEAN COUNTIES. THE LATTER HIGHER TOTAL OVER MCKEAN COUNTY APPEARED TO FALL ALONG A RIDGE LINE WITH DRAINAGE SPLIT BETWEEN TRIBS OF THE UPPER ALLEGHENY RIVER AND WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...AND CALLS TO THEIR EOC INDICATED NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS IN THAT AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...POPS WERE TRIMMED TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHILE LINGERING SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SLOWLY SWD DRIFTING CFRONT WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA /SOME WITH BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL/...NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL /AVERAGE/ AROUND 0.50 INCH BETWEEN NOW AND 10Z. HOWEVER...ANY TRAINING TSRA WILL EASILY DROP 1-2 INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR. SOME SHOWERS MAY LAST ALL NIGHT IN THE SERN COS. CLEARING IS POSSIBLE - BUT MAINLY OVER THE NW. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL AND THE SKY CLEARS OUT. MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH...TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FRONT NOT IN A HURRY AND FOCUS MAY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ. ALL DAY. FORCING IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL MAKE IT ALMOST LIKELY TO SHOWER/STORM. THERE...BUT WILL KEEP CONTINUTY AND WITHIN COLLABORATION TO CALL IT SCT COVERAGE. PWATS STILL RUN IN THE 1.5-INCH RANGE MONDAY. SO THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS IN THE SE. MAXES SHOULD BE RATHER HOMOGENEOUS IN THE L-M80S...WITH THE NW IN MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHER 8H TEMPS/MIXING POTENTIAL OVER THE SE. AIR BEGINS TO DRY OUT IN THE SE MON NIGHT. WILL SLIDE POPS TO NILS AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. DRY PERIOD STILL IN STORE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISOLD CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KUNV TO KIPT TO KAVP. STORMS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VCSH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND FOR MOST OF THE TIME. TIMES OF BEST COVERAGE MIGHT WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP FOR REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. THEREFORE...THE TAFS WILL LOOK MORE OMINOUS THAN CONDITIONS REALLY WILL BE. THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE QUICKLY AND SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE E/SERN TERMINALS. LOCATIONS THAT ATTEMPT TO CLEAR OUT COULD GET DENSE FOG - BUT GENERALLY ONY IF IT RAINED AT THAT TERMINAL. WILL JUST MENTION 1-2SM BR FOR SOME SITES LATE TONIGHT...BUT PLACES THAT REMAIN DRY MAY NOT FOG IN AT ALL. NOT MUCH CLEARING IS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE NW. AT LEAST MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE THE CENTRAL MTNS. LESS COVERAGE IN SHRA IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS AROUND THE SERN TERMINALS WHERE THE FRONT LINGERS STILL. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA LATER MON NIGHT. VALLEY FOG POSS IN THE NRN MTNS TUES AM. OUTLOOK... TUE...VALLEY FOG POSS AM...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX. WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISO PM SHRA/TSRA. THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER

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