Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281016 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 616 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING...CAUSING TEMPS TO JUMP TO ARND 60F FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST. THE RELATIVELY COOL LOW LVL AIR EAST OF THE MTNS WILL BE MIXED OUT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU THE REST OF THE AREA. IR LOOP SHOWING SCT-BKN CIRRUS ACROSS PA AT 09Z. HOWEVER...NR TERM MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE THICKER CIRRUS WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL PA BY AFTN. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS SOAR TO BTWN 2-3SD ABV NORMAL TODAY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT NR RECORD TEMPS OF 75-80F UNDER MSUNNY SKIES. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SFC IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BUFKIT SUPPORTS AFTN GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW MTNS ARND 21Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH STRONG MID LVL WINDS...IMPLIES THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY SVR WGUSTS FROM TSRA OVR WARREN CO LATE TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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HAVE INCREASED POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES...WHERE BOTH GEFS AND SREF DATA SUPPORT A CATEGORICAL CHC OF RAIN WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. FOCUS OF SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SUSQ VALLEY WED MORNING ALONG SLOW MOVING CDFRONT. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LANCASTER CO BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TRAILING CIRRUS DECK WILL KEEP SKIES MCLDY WED. OVR THE NW MTNS LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE FORMING...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVR THE STILL WARM LK ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM EARLY AM LOWS WED. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING HIGHS FROM THE L50S NW MTNS...TO THE L/M60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. RAINFALL AMTS FROM FROPA LOOK TO GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS BASED ON BLEND OF MDL QPF.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA ON FRIDAY...DELIVERING A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED W/SHORTWAVE...BUT MDL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SAT. COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE SHRA TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSS OVR THE NW MTNS...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AS COLD AS -8C TO -10C. UPPER LVL TROF IS PROGGED BY ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TO LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THIS OUTBREAK...AS SFC HIGH PASSES DIRECTLY OVR THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/18Z. NO SIG CIG OR VSBY CONCERNS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF. WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS IN PLACE UNDER THE SFC HIGH HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF LLWS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE ALL TAF SITES. SFC WINDS FROM 200-240 DEG WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES. LAYERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME SCT LOW-TOPPED TSTMS REACHING FAR WRN/NWRN PA AROUND 00Z WED. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTS AT BFD/JST ATTM. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/18Z: LIMITED/BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE LKLY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE FROM 00-12Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EAST BY THE AFTN. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND WX ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. POST FRONTAL LOW CIGS AND LAKE EFFECT SHWRS APPEAR LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN TAFS BFD AND JST. OUTLOOK... THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST/VFR EAST. FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS. SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR- MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL

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