Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 211223 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 723 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST WIND TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AS DRIER AIR HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHWEST. OROGRAPHIC- INDUCED STRATOCU AND FLURRIES OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. FURTHER EAST...DRYING/DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MSUNNY SKIES THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S OVER THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM SOUTHWEST PA THIS EVENING TO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR COVERING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BE MIXED OUT BY FRESHENING WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY. MINS SAT MORNING WILL STILL BE CHILLY... GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 20. RESULTING HIGHS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ~10 DEGREES WARMER IN MOST AREAS...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR AT AOO AND JST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WILL LIFT AS THE DAY CONTINUES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. VFR WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN. GUSTY WINDS WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS. TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR ELSEWHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...CERU

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