Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 202206 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 606 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THRU PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE E GRT LKS AND ALONG AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY/HIGH PWATS RUNNING FROM SE OHIO INTO NW PA. LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROF MAY SUSTAIN A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE W MTNS THRU LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA....MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UP ON A WEAK SERLY FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AS IS USUALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING UPPER TROF AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS/INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT FROM IT/S LOCATION OVR OHIO/NW PA TODAY...TO CENTRAL PA MONDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT FOCUS OF SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BE OVR CENTRAL PA. THE 15Z SREF SHOWS CAPES CREEPING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE ON SOME CONVECTION POPPING IN THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE STEADILY WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WHICH IS ACTUALLY A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEAK RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS MON- EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/. A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A FEW SHOWERS NOW ACROSS THE NW. 21Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. A WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIFT POLEWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BFD CONTINUES TO STUBBORNLY HOLD ONTO A MARGINAL CEILING...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION HAS GONE VFR AND WILL REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS INTO THE EVENING. LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AND WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OUTLOOK... TUE...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY A.M MVFR FOG. WDLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WED-THU...COLD FROPA LATER WED-WED NIGHT SHOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRI...NO SIG WX
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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