Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 151206 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 706 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build east into the region today, followed by milder conditions that will work back into the area for Tuesday. Accompanying the brief warmup will be periods of rain Tuesday and Tuesday night. The rain should begin as a few hour period of freezing rain in many locations throughout Central and Northern Pennsylvania early Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Regional 11-3.9um Satellite loop shows that most of the earlier, shallow strato cu has advected south to along the PA/MD border or dissipated. The moist, sub-freezing air and wet ground, was combining with a light NW wind (and calm air in some locations) to produce fairly widespread black ice. A Special Weather Statement (running until 13Z today) highlight this hazard for pedestrians and travelers. Low temps shortly after sunrise this morning will vary from the upper teens across the northern tier of PA, to the mid and upper 20s in the south. High pressure will build into the area from the Western Great Lakes today, supplying us with fair weather and relatively light nwrly wind. Clear to partly cloudy skies, and a decent amount of sunshine to start the day (especially across the nrn mtns of PA) will be topped by a layer of cirrus/cirrostratus streaming in from the west during the midday and afternoon hours. Mid afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 30s across the northern mtns, and upper 30s to near 40 degrees in the southern valleys. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... This period will be dry with mainly high clouds tonight, then a gradual lowering and thickening of the cloud deck Monday afternoon and night as an upper ridge axis crests over the state. 1032 mb sfc high pressure will be parked between the I-81 and I-95 corridors in the NE and Mid Atlantic Region overnight tonight. low temps tonight will range from the upper teens over the north, to the lower and mid 20s across Central and Southern PA. Highs on Monday will rebound by several degrees in many locations...varying from the mid 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The stubborn trough/upper low over the west coast will weaken and lift across the southern plains into the Great Lakes region as a pattern change begins. An upper ridge over the area tries to hold firm as a warm front lifts through Ohio River Valley early in the upcoming week. This frontal boundary could be preceded and accompanied by a light, wintry mix of precip during the early to mid morning hours Tuesday. A good portion of the upcoming week is shaping up to be mild and showery (especially Tuesday) as the bulk of med range guidance shows a ridge slowly retreating off the East Coast as remnants of that west coast low get picked up by the northern stream and track across PA during the midweek. For Tue into Tue night, deep southerly flow ahead of that trough will bring a plume of anomalous PWATS over the region which supports the idea of showery (periods of steady rain on Tuesday) and mild weather. As has been the case frequently lately, the GFS brings the trough through faster than the ECMWF. Followed close to the Nat`l Blend of models vary high, 90-100 pops for Tuesday surround on either side by mainly likely pops. Winds turn westerly behind the system as flow turns more zonal, but with no cold air in sight, temps will remain mild and above freezing. Ridge re-establishes itself over the eastern U.S. for late week, as mild SW flow persists over the midwest. Guidance suggests energy will dive south along the west coast eventually helping to strengthen the building upper ridge over the east. We`ll be on the eastern side of this, so subtle shortwaves sliding into the Midwest will bring varying amounts of cloudiness to the west (less in the east) with low end chances for light showers. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Vis and cig restrictions early this morning at BFD/IPT/MDT/LNS will give way to VFR for the remainder the day. VFR continues for the entire airspace tonight into Monday. Outlook... Tue...Sub-VFR likely with freezing rain to rain. Wed...Sub-VFR possible with rain ending Wed ngt. Thu...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl

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