Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 191733 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 133 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT (MOSTLY) NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LYCOMING VALLEY AND ENDLESS MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES...AS AN UPPER TROF PASSAGE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS MORNING HAS AIDED MIXING THERE. HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OPAQUE...CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FILTERING SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE SUN THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AS EXPECTED HOWEVER. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY. THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT MOISTURE STARVED. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...NO SIG WX. TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR

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