Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 162157 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 557 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A large ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather for much of the upcoming 7 days. Hurricane Jose could come close to the Mid-Atlantic region Monday into Tuesday before it meanders to the East. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A weak upper level trough extends from northeast Pa to southeast Ohio early this evening. Widely scattered, diurnally-driven convection ahead of this feature should dissipate with loss of heating later this evening. An examination of latest radar trends and model PWATs suggest the best chance of an early evening shower will be over the Middle Susq Valley. A calm wind and mostly clear skies should promote areas of valley fog late tonight, similar as to what occurred this morning. Low level moisture is higher than average for mid September and will hold temps above seasonal norms overnight with lows ranging from the mid 50s in the coolest valleys of the north, to the mid 60s over the Lower Susq Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Sunday will be a near carbon copy of today with respect to the late morning timing of valley fog dissipation and the coverage of isolated/scattered afternoon showers in the midst of some modest afternoon instability. Surface based LI`s will be slightly lower and Capes a bit higher Sunday afternoon which could lead to a better chance of a rumble of thunder in some spots. High temps Sunday afternoon will be in the u70s to L80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather. However, heights over our region will drop as Hurricane Jose moves nwd and just east of the Carolina to Mid Atlantic Coast Monday night through Tuesday night before reaching a consensus location near the Eastern Tip of Long Island late Wednesday morning. The eastern third to one half of our forecast area could feel some impact in the form of gusty North to NW winds Tuesday afternoon through Wed morning along with periods of showers on the western periphery of the storm. A shift of the storm to the east will reduce our chance of showers. As Jose moves away heights will rise and this should further dry us out for the latter part of next week. The GEFS forecasts a closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights by next Friday and Saturday which will translate to well above normal temps. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread VFR will continue the evening. A very weak trough overhead will trigger isolated showers across the southern portion of the flying area, but impacts look too isolated to mention in terminals. Tonight will see a return of the fairly widespread and locally dense valley fog after midnight that will linger into mid morning Sunday. Then isolated/scattered afternoon showers will again be possible. .Outlook... Sun-Mon...Areas of A.M. fog. Mainly dry with VFR conditions. Perhaps an isolated afternoon shower. Tue-Wed...Mainly dry with patchy morning fog. Otherwise primarily VFR conditions. Eastern areas may see NE winds 10-20 mph as main impacts from Jose remain off to our east. Thu...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Grumm/Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte

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