Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281522 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1122 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure will remain centered over Pa this afternoon through Sunday. A trough of low pressure will push across the region late Sunday into early Monday. High pressure will build into the region early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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...A very warm and humid start to the long holiday weekend... Subtropical ridge centered off the east coast will expand nwwd into Pa today, with 500mb height anomalies reaching 2SD across southeast Pa. The assoc warm temps aloft (which are 1-2C warmer than 24 hours ago at 700 mb) should greatly suppress convection across the se counties this aftn. However, sct diurnal tsra appear likely across the remainder of central Pa...which convective initiation most apparent over the windward, south to serly facing slopes of the allegheny front in west-central and north-central PA, and practially anywhere across the laurels and nw mtns where mid level temps will be about 1 deg C cooler. Thermodynamic/kinematic profiles appear very similar to those of Friday, with moderate sfc-based cape of 1500-2500 j/kg and weak shear, suggesting pulse-type convection and a low risk of organized svr wx. Although most locations will likely miss out on rainfall, slow moving tsra will likely produce localized rain amts of arnd 2 inches in a few spots, as implied by ncar high res ensemble output. Ens mean 8h temps near or slightly higher than those of Friday, so have added a degree or two to max temps, which should range from the m80s ovr the Allegheny Mtns, to arnd 90F across the Susq Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Diurnally-driven convection should rapidly die out after sunset. Focus will then shift to potential of patchy fog in those locations that receive rain later today. Increasing high and mid lvl cloudiness expected Sunday in advance of shortwave lifting out of the midwest, which should hold temps down a bit. Superblend max temps ranging from the u70s ovr the Alleghenies to l80s Susq Valley. As lg scale forcing ramps up ahead of shortwave, expect an increasing chc of pm tsra, mainly across the western counties. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Although tropical depression is progged to remain well south of Pa, a plume of tropical moisture lifting up the mid atl coast, combined with approach of mid lvl shortwave from the west, could produce some locally sig rainfall Sun night across eastern Pa. GEFS and oper GFS/EC all indicate the potential of 1+ inches of rain Sunday night across our se counties. Some uncertainty with regards to how fast shortwave and assoc weak cold front clear the area Monday. Trend has been for a more progressive shortwave resulting in a dry Memorial Day. However, the slower 00Z EC solution still suggesting showery wx could linger across the se half of the state. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in broad agreement in a period of fair/warm weather from Tuesday into Wednesday before pcpn risk gradually increases late in the week ahead of 5h trof and assoc cold front approaching from the Grt Lks. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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a large ridge of high pressure remains in control, keeping a summertime weather pattern in place this afternoon through Sunday. This ridge will suppress convection and keep cumulus pretty shallow in the southeast this afternoon. the chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms will be confined mainly to NW half of the state. Overall conditions will remain VFR, with local/very brief reductions to mainly mvfr in sct convection. OUTLOOK... Sun...Sct afternoon tsra impacts...mainly nw half. Sun night...Reductions likely mainly se half in showers/tstms. Mon...Sct tsra impacts...mainly se half. Tue and Wed...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Lambert NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner AVIATION...Lambert/RXR

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