Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290620 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 120 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... QUIET FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS PERSISTING IN WEAK WEST NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...DESPITE DESPITE OVERALL MID LEVEL DRYING. EXPECT STRATUS DECK BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LEE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS THIS MORNING FROM YESTERDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE NW ALREADY NEAR 30F AND SE COUNTIES ON THEIR WAY TO AROUND 32F BY SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE SC/SE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. BUT THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL QUITE /8-10F/ ABOVE NORMAL MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...DESPITE ONLY LIGHT NW WIND AND DECENT CAA. NO PRECIP AND LIGHT WINDS FOR MONDAY. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD CREATE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE S MAY DIM THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALMOST SPOT ON NORMALS - QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A WAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. MORE CONFIDENCE THAT IMPACTS/PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAURELS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR. GEFS AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF 2015 DEVELOPING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW WEST OF PA BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MILD AIR BACK INTO THE STATE WITH RAIN LIKELY THE MOST DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF PA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COLDER AIR AND A MORE MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE SALIENT POINT IN THIS IS THAT THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND MODEL FORECASTS ALIGN. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND COLD FROPA EARLIER TODAY. MVFR CIGS REMAIN AT THIS HOUR AT BOTH KST AND KBFD WITH VFR ELSEWHERE AS A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NRN MTNS. THESE LOWERED CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 9-10Z. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL STRETCH FAR TO THE EAST AND ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR TO LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW FLURRIES OFF THE LAKES OR ON UPSLOPE FLOW INTO JST WILL BE THE ONLY POSSIBILITIES OF PRECIP UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...WATSON/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER AVIATION...GARTNER

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