Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281854 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 154 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY BEGINS A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AND REMAINING SO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS MILDER AIR FILTERS IN. IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH MILDER AIR ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SO WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG AND A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS. NORTHERN VALLEYS COULD STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE SAT EVENING. ELSEWHERE WILL MENTION THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING MIDNIGHT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BROAD ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE REACHING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE BACK IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON APPROACH OF A FRONT FOR MONDAY...THOUGH GFS/GEFS CONTINUE TO BE 6 TO MAYBE 12 HRS FASTER WITH FROPA THAN THE ECMWF. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS S CANADA. MDLS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGE FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS DOES MAKE A MORE- WET FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ALL MDLS SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO THE FROPA NEXT FRI. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MOST OF THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AM OVER NORTHERN PA. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY NORTH. LOW CIGS AT KBFD POSS SAT NIGHT. SUN...AM LOW CIGS/DZ POSS KBFD. MON...LOW CIGS/SHRA POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...DANGELO/RXR AVIATION...ROSS

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