Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261831 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 131 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ONCE THE THIN LOW OVERCAST STARTED TO EVAPORATE AND MIX OUT...IT DID SO VERY QUICKLY WITH BRIGHT SUN BEING OBSERVED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH MOST AREAS SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS READINGS RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S FROM NW TO SE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BUT FOR SOME GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS MANAGE TO FORM OVER THE NW LATE UNDER THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING. THE NAM IS WETTER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAN THE GFS SO I HAVEN`T JUMPED ON THE INCREASING CLOUDS TOO AGGRESSIVELY. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN WITH THE LONG NIGHTS AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... A SW BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE HIGH RECEDES AND THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW LIGHT PRECIP TRYING TO SNEAK INTO MY NWRN ZONES BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER...BUT THEIR ENSEMBLES REMAIN DRY AS DOES THE ECMWF...SO I OPTED FOR THE DRY FORECAST. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLOUD UP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE AN OVERALL VERY FINE EARLY WINTER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...SOME 10 DEG OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH OF CWA LATE IN THE DAY WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUN NIGHT AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK S STREAM WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SE ZONES SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING A MIX OF R/S IS POSSIBLE IF THIS WAVE DOES INDEED DEVELOP AND TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH. OTHERWISE WILL SEE COLDER AIR SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE CWA IN A FEW WAVES NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES WE WOULD EXPECT FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER...WHICH WILL FEEL COLD AFTER THE MILD WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN THIS MONTH...BUT REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED AS S STREAM ENERGY STAYS SOUTH OF THE STATE. GUIDANCE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE TRACK UNCERTAIN AT THE TIME GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL OVER A WEEK OUT. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLEAR SKIES RULE THE REGION FOR A CHANGE. WE WILL REMAIN VFR INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OVER THE NWRN MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE OUTCOME AT THIS TIME SO IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE BRADFORD TAF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.. OUTLOOK... SAT NITE-SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MON-WED...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...ROSS AVIATION...LA CORTE

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