Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 291110 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 710 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE STATE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS STILL SOUTH OF THE CWA...THOUGH HRRR RUNS SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING CLOSE TO THE PA/MD BORDER. OTHERWISE LOOK TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY THE DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL PUT DOWN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WITH SURFACE MOISTURE BACK...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET. WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF CWA AND TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WITH BETTER FORCING AND THE WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... POPS CONTINUE HIGH SAT NIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA AND A LIKELIHOOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW/PWATS INDICATED IN GEFS OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN SFC HIGH OVR NEW ENG AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION SUN-MON..PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN SUN. DRYING TREND BEGINS MONDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER POPS. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PWAT AIR OF JUST 0.50 OF AN INCH WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY...WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. QUASI STNRY FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH INTO PENN TODAY /FIRST INTO THE WRN MTNS...WHERE PWATS WILL BOUNCE BACK QUICKLY TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG THROUGH ABOUT 12Z....VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOST AIRFIELDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY. AS MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON... SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE 18-20Z TIMEFRAME...AND BECOME MOST NUMEROUS BETWEEN 20-01Z SATURDAY. WITH 6 KM BULK SHEAR UNDER 20KTS...AND THE SHEAR PROFILE FAIRLY LINEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 3-18KFT AGL LAYER...MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF TSRA WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF AT LEAST SMALL HAIL. BRIEF MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR WILL ACCOMPANY THE TSRA ACROSS OUR WRN TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION /SHRA AND TSRA/ MAKING IT A KELZ TO KUNV AND KHGR LINE AROUND 00Z SAT...THEN FIZZLING OUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR KBFD AND KJST AROUND AND AFTER 19Z. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT IN THE BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND HIGH PWAT AIR WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TSRA WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 04Z SATURDAY. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY...IN THE HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ALONG A WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER...AND JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY OUTLOOK... SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD FROPA LATE SAT NW...AND SAT NIGHT CENTRAL AND SE PA. SUN-TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...ROSS AVIATION...LAMBERT

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