Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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805 FXUS61 KCTP 261904 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 304 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will set up shop over the western Atlantic for the next several days bringing warm and increasingly humid conditions to the region into the holiday weekend. Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Mid cloud deck eroded to a large degree across much of the central mtns and susq valley allowing temps to soar into the upper 80s across the lower susq valley...with mid afternoon maxes approaching yesterday`s very warm temps in the low-mid 80s across the mid susq valley and central mtns. Increasing swrly flow nestled within the approaching theta-e ridge has advected another extensive area of mainly alto cu across the wrn two thirds of the CWA. This will greatly impact/lower the amount and depth of convection we see this afternoon and evening...especially with mid level temps mdtly warm at about 4-5C at 700 mb. Have lowered pops for showers this afternoon and evening...and limited mention of thunder to the very isolated variety. Rainfall is still expected to "average" one tenth of an inch or less across the majority of the CWA. However, a few select locations seeing a briefly heavier...few showers (or a TSRA) could see a one-quarter of an inch of rain by 02Z friday. lingering bkn alto cu for much of the overnight should prevent anything more than than light 4-6sm fog from forming. should there be a few spots that see a shower, then clear out for a few hours, they could dip to around 1-2sm in fog late tonight/early friday. Pops overnight will gradually diminish to under 20 percent after midnight. Mins tonight will feel mid-summerlike in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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CAPE surges to much higher values than what we had today (Thursday)as heights build aloft and drier air advects east into the region AOA 6 kft agl. Terrain and areas of enhanced sfc heating/weak sfc troughing will likely be the primary trigger for potentially strong pulse convection Friday afternoon/evening. Therefore...generic chc pops will be followed with no specification as to which location will see the greatest threat for the sct SHRA/TSRA. What rain does fall could be heavy with almost zero storm motion and PWATs will still be above 1 inch. Partly cloudy skies...light wind and moderately high dewpoints Friday night will lead to another mild night with the potential for light fog late. Mins in the low-mid 60s will be common.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The large scale pattern has a decidedly summertime look and feel to it through the Memorial Day weekend and into next week with light winds aloft and a prevailing ridge across the northeast CONUS. Temperatures will average above normal with the core of the `hot` weather front-loaded Friday-Sunday before trending modestly toward late May/early June climatology. Precipitation risk early in the period should be characterized by diurnal convection with the highest probs occurring during peak afternoon heating, augmented at times perhaps by weak disturbances drifting through aloft. Max POP may be centered on or around Memorial Day as a weak shortwave suppresses heights as it passes by to the north and some interaction takes place with `tropical` system migrating toward the southeast U.S. coast. Latest NHC forecast says this area of disturbed weather has a 30% chance of cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure over the region will result in widespread vfr conds with just a 6-10 kt south-southwesterly breeze continuing through late this afternoon. Gusts in the mid to upper teens will occur acrs the nrn and wrn mtns. An approaching weak upper lvl disturbance and subtle sfc trough, combined with an increasingly moist ssw flow, will produce sct shra/tsra during the aftn and early evening. Although vfr conds will predominate, a brief vis reduction is possible associated with a passing shra/tsra. Widely sctd evening shra/isolated tsra should become confined to taf sites kmdt and klns this evening before tapering off, as the disturbance passes east of the region. The focus will then shift to the potential of patchy late night fog under light and variable wind...especially in spots that receive rain this aftn/evening. A moist swrly flow ascending the mtns could also result in ifr cigs at KBFD late tonight, as latest mdl soundings and SREF prob data suggest. OUTLOOK... Fri and Saturday...Early am low cigs possible. Isold pm tsra impacts possible. Sat-Mon...Isold pm tsra impacts possible. Tue-VFR
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Lambert

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