Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 271139 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 739 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over southern Michigan early this morning will track across Lake Ontario this afternoon. This system will keep cool and wet weather across the Keystone state today. Some snow will mix with the rain across north central PA at times this morning. Milder weather will occur this weekend, as high pressure builds across the southeast states. A weak cold front from the upper Great Lakes may bring a chance of showers to the area for the later part of the weekend. However, most of the weekend will be on the dry side. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... One band of snow and rain moved across the north central area earlier. Another large area of precipitation moving across the north again at this time. Snow grids look good. Expect the area that might have picked up some accumulation to be from near BFD to northwest of IPT. After about 13Z, expect the precipitation to become lighter and less widespread, and temeratures warm enough that the precipitation will be in the form of rain. As the low moves across the eastern part of Lake Ontario later this afternoon, that winds will shift more to the west, and the rain will taper to just a few showers. Main thing going for the rain early today is the strong warm advection. Did not make any large changes to the fcst, may add thunder to the fcst, if it holds together. time. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The airmass behind the departing low is not as cold as what we had ahead of it. A few rain showers possible tonight and early Friday morning. Minor adjustments made to the fcst package. The main thing will be the wind early Friday. Downstream blocking should allow northern stream energy to phase with the lead trough and eventually result in a negatively tilted trough over the Northeast U.S. by Friday morning. Models show the formation of a triple point low deepening along the coast into the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Trend has been for slightly milder conditions on Saturday and less chance of showers, especially across the south. Did edge temperatures up a little, and decrease POPS some. For Sunday, still some chance of showers, as the next front drops southward toward PA. High pressure builds back into the area from the north and west early next week. Temperatures should average normal to above normal. Main changes was to bring temperatures up a little here and there, and take out low chance POPS. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Low pressure will bring periods of rain to Central Pa today along with low cigs, especially over the Northwest Mtns. SREF and latest HRRR support the idea of predominantly MVFR conds across much of Central Pa today. However, an upsloping flow is likely to yield lower (IFR) cigs at KBFD. At KJST, models indicate arrival of sfc warm front and drier sw flow is likely to bring predominantly VFR conditions for much of the day. A core of strong winds aloft will lead to marginal LLWS conditions across parts of Central/Northern Pa today. For much of the area, expect improving conditions behind the cold front, as a drier northwest flow arrives tonight. However, low level moisture streaming off of the Great Lakes and ascending the Allegheny Mtns will likely result in IFR cigs at KBFD/KJST this evening, then persistent MVFR cigs lasting through Friday morning. Outlook... Fri...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Sat...No sig wx expected. Sun...Showers/low cigs possible, esp N and W. Mon...No sig wx expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Martin NEAR TERM...Martin SHORT TERM...Martin LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Fitzgerald is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.