Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 291142 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 742 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SFC OBS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GLAKS. ONLY SIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HOW THICK AND WIDESPREAD IT BECOMES THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME. DRY AIR WILL FIGHT FOG FORMATION IN ALL BUT THE DEEPEST DARKEST VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS COULD DROP TO 40F BY 6 AM. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN AWAY AS THE SUN WORKS ON IT. BUT LITTLE TO NO WIND WILL MAKE IT A WONDERFUL LATE-SUMMER DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BACK UP TO THURS MAXES AND EVEN ADD A FEW DEGS ON - ESP IN THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE MIDWEST AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. THE GFS/NAM PROPAGATES IT FASTER...WHERE THE EC SLOWS THE TIMING DOWN...AND HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SPURRED ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPARK ALONG A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA. THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS ROTATING LOW WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS HAS FAR MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES...WITH DEEPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH PERIODICALLY...WHERE THE EC KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AS SUCH HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NICE SUNRISE...ALONG WITH A SUN DOG. OTHER THAN SOME FOG AT AOO...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...WITH SOME MID AND HI CLDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION STARTS TONIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO TUE. WINDS BECOME SE ON SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY LVLS WILL REALLY COME UP ON SUNDAY...HIGHER THAN HAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR. OUTLOOK... SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER NEAR TERM...GARTNER SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN

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