Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240817 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 417 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough, located over the Great Lakes early this morning, will push slowly across Pennsylvania early this week. In its wake, high pressure will build southeast across the region by midweek. A cold front will likely push southeast across the region next Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... Radar trends at 0730Z showing back edge of steady rain beginning to lift out of eastern Pa, as weak surface low over the Delmarva Peninsula and associated southeasterly low level jet lift out. Latest HRRR runs and upstream conditions suggest steady rain over the northeast part of the forecast area will dwindle to scattered showers toward dawn, then exit the area completely by around 12Z. Earlier flooding concerns have diminished and remaining stratiform rain over the northeast part of the forecast area is not anticipated to cause more than minor flooding early this morning. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... Upper trough over the Grt Lks is poised to swing into the region later today, causing scattered convection to break out along associated cold front as early as late morning over the northwest mountains, and during the afternoon elsewhere. After a cloudy start to the day in many locations, model soundings indicate a fair amount of sunshine developing by midday, as lower PWAT air filters in on westerly flow. NCAR ensemble indicating prefrontal CAPEs rising to around 1000 J/KG by afternoon across the eastern 2/3rds of the forecast area. The combination of modest CAPEs and 0-6km shear of 40-45kts will support a marginal threat of severe weather during the afternoon. Convection-allowing models indicate scattered showers will arrive across the northwest mountains by late this morning, with more robust convection forming along cold front, as it pushes through the rest of the forecast area during the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Not a lot of change from yesterday. Still going mainly with dry conditions Tuesday into Wed. Did lower temperatures a degree or so on Tue, given concern for some clouds and lack of real strong cool push. Also models show pair of weak lows just inland from the south shore of the lower Great Lakes, not sure what to make of this. A strange summer lately. Still expecting showers and storms on Thursday into the first part of Friday, with the next cold front. Went with mainly dry conditions after early Friday. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At 00Z the latest radar has showers and thunderstorms moving through eastern PA bringing heavy rain. These are exiting the region but will bring -SHRA with VCTS to IPT through 01Z. The next line is approaching from the west along a boundary which will reach JST with possible -TSRA between 02Z to 03Z. These will slide along the southern tier of counties and have timed them through the TAFs. Latest short term models are showing the precipitation should exit the region between 09Z to 11Z. Expect cigs and vsbys to drop to IFR and LIFR shortly after due to low stratocu and valley fog. The restrictions should lift between 12Z to 14Z. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon due to another trough moving through the mid Atlantic. Expect showers and thunderstorms west to east after 19Z. Tonight, restrictions return in wake of trough axis, with IFR conditions likely in the north and east, and MVFR in the central mountains. .OUTLOOK... Tonight...Cig restrictions likely. Scattered TSRA/SHRA. Mon...AM restrictions likely. Scattered TSRA. Tue-Wed...AM restrictions north/west. Otherwise no sig wx. Thu-Fri...Chance of afternoon TSRA/SHRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ006- 010>012-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...DeVoir/Ceru

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