Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 151806 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 206 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front over central PA at mid afternoon will move south of the Keystone state by this evening. Temperatures will still be unseasonably mild this weekend. Another cold front will usher in a change in airmass by late Sunday into early next week, with a chance for snow showers Monday into early Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Frontal bolundary pushing across the central part of the state this afternoon. Rain showers have diminished ahead of the front with just scattered activity over the lower Susquehanna valley. Expect these to push out of the forecast area by evening. Steady or slowly falling temperatures throughout the area this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Some fog in the valleys is possible overnight, mainly in the central and south. A patch of broken, low clouds due to CAA over the Alleghenies should keep fog at bay there. Clearing in the SErn half of the area will help take mins into the 30s everywhere. Have nudged T`s down a bit from prev fcsts there. Saturday looks like a winner - in between cold fronts. Temps will be still above normal. A west to southwest wind will pick up in the aftn, esp in the NW half of the CWA. A few showers will be possible with the front, but moisture is limited. For Sunday, the showers will break up/end for the most part as the cold front moves past the spine of the Appalachians early on. High temperatures will be near normal in the NW, but still a little milder than normal for St Patrick`s Day parades. As any leftover showers go thru the S and linger in the NW, you may see a rainbow if you look to the west (morning rainbows are more- rare than evening bows), but that`s a tough call to make this far away. Might have to see the radar on Sun morning to give yourself the best chance at finding the pot of gold. Of course, this forecast is gold, but not quite bitcoin.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Main change to this section of the forecast was to up POPS for Monday into early Wednesday, to fit in better with others. While there will be some directional shear, the airmass is quite cold and should result in some lake effect and upslope snow showers. Still some model spread from day to day and run to run, to how the fcst plays out after Tuesday. Not real clear cut to how much warm up will occur mid to late week. Still looking like by late week it could trend rather wet again. More information below. Noticeably cooler, near seasonal temps, appear likely Sunday/Sun night. The bulk of medium range guidance then tracks a potent upper level shortwave and cold front through the region Monday. A round of snow showers/squalls could accompany the passage of this feature Monday. Strong large scale forcing, steep lower tropospheric lapse rates and even some cape are evident in some models with the fropa, signaling a potential of squalls. Below normal temperatures and lake effect snow showers appear likely Tue/Wed, as upper level troughing and a cold northwest flow over the Grt Lks remains in place. Fair weather and moderating temperatures appear likely by next Thursday, as the upper trough begins to lift out.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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For 18Z package, held onto lower CIGS over much of the region prior to sunrise on Saturday. Concern is that moisture will get trapped under the frontal inversion. Some guidance has low CIGS at JST late tonight. While I lowered CIGS again there late tonight, I did not go too low. Winds will weaken later tonight, then pick back up ahead of the next cold front on Saturday. Outlook... Sun...Rain showers with MVFR cigs NW half. Some snow could mix in during the late afternoon across the northwest, Mon...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front with rain showers possible across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Tue...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front. Wed...Improving conditions.
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&& .CLIMATE... Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins on Tuesday March 19 at 11:06 PM EDT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Martin NEAR TERM...Martin/Tyburski SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Martin/Tyburski LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Martin/Tyburski AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE...Steinbugl

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