Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 151806
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
206 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front over central PA at mid afternoon will move south
of the Keystone state by this evening. Temperatures will still
be unseasonably mild this weekend. Another cold front will usher
in a change in airmass by late Sunday into early next week,
with a chance for snow showers Monday into early Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Frontal bolundary pushing across the central part of the state
this afternoon. Rain showers have diminished ahead of the front
with just scattered activity over the lower Susquehanna valley.
Expect these to push out of the forecast area by evening. Steady
or slowly falling temperatures throughout the area this
afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Some fog in the valleys is possible overnight, mainly in the
central and south. A patch of broken, low clouds due to CAA
over the Alleghenies should keep fog at bay there. Clearing in
the SErn half of the area will help take mins into the 30s
everywhere. Have nudged T`s down a bit from prev fcsts there.
Saturday looks like a winner - in between cold fronts. Temps
will be still above normal. A west to southwest wind will pick
up in the aftn, esp in the NW half of the CWA. A few showers
will be possible with the front, but moisture is limited.
For Sunday, the showers will break up/end for the most part as
the cold front moves past the spine of the Appalachians early
on. High temperatures will be near normal in the NW, but still
a little milder than normal for St Patrick`s Day parades. As any
leftover showers go thru the S and linger in the NW, you may
see a rainbow if you look to the west (morning rainbows are
more- rare than evening bows), but that`s a tough call to make
this far away. Might have to see the radar on Sun morning to
give yourself the best chance at finding the pot of gold. Of
course, this forecast is gold, but not quite bitcoin.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Main change to this section of the forecast was to up POPS for
Monday into early Wednesday, to fit in better with others. While
there will be some directional shear, the airmass is quite cold
and should result in some lake effect and upslope snow showers.
Still some model spread from day to day and run to run, to how
the fcst plays out after Tuesday. Not real clear cut to how much
warm up will occur mid to late week. Still looking like by late
week it could trend rather wet again.
More information below.
Noticeably cooler, near seasonal temps, appear likely
Sunday/Sun night. The bulk of medium range guidance then tracks
a potent upper level shortwave and cold front through the region
Monday. A round of snow showers/squalls could accompany the
passage of this feature Monday. Strong large scale forcing,
steep lower tropospheric lapse rates and even some cape are
evident in some models with the fropa, signaling a potential of
squalls.
Below normal temperatures and lake effect snow showers appear
likely Tue/Wed, as upper level troughing and a cold northwest
flow over the Grt Lks remains in place. Fair weather and
moderating temperatures appear likely by next Thursday, as the
upper trough begins to lift out.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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For 18Z package, held onto lower CIGS over much of the region
prior to sunrise on Saturday. Concern is that moisture will get
trapped under the frontal inversion.
Some guidance has low CIGS at JST late tonight. While I lowered
CIGS again there late tonight, I did not go too low.
Winds will weaken later tonight, then pick back up ahead of the
next cold front on Saturday.
Outlook...
Sun...Rain showers with MVFR cigs NW half. Some snow could mix
in during the late afternoon across the northwest,
Mon...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front with rain
showers possible across the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
Tue...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front.
Wed...Improving conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.CLIMATE...
Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins on Tuesday March 19
at 11:06 PM EDT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin/Tyburski
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Martin/Tyburski
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Martin/Tyburski
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Steinbugl