Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 012145 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 545 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RIDGE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO PENN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER FEATURE AND PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBGM TO KJST AT 19Z. A GRADUALLY VEERING OF THE SFC WIND BY ABOUT 20-30 DEG WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WITH SFC WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 8-10 KTS. GUSTS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS BASED ON BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE DEPTH OF VERTICAL MIXING UP TO AROUND 7 KTS AGL. RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 6C/KM WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH... SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F...AND STG HEATING OF THE DAY AND WE SHOULD SEE ISOLD SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSRA/ BETWEEN 17Z-22Z. TEMPS WILL RISE JUST ANOTHER DEG F OR TWO AND END UP PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE SE. SOMEONE MAY SEE 90F IN THE LOWER SUSQ THANKS TO A LIGHT- MDT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SLICING RIGHT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY PROVIDING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TO AROUND 60F IN THE SE ZONES. TEMPS TO GET BACK TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NW AND PERHAPS ADD A DEG F OR TWO TO SATURDAY/S MAXES ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE UPPER GLAKES IN THE OTHERWISE...DRY NW FLOW WILL HELP TO FUNNEL SOME LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT AND SPARK ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATER SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE NW ZONES...AND ELSEWHERE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING OF THE CFRONT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. MODERATELY STG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE WEST TO WSW...BUT MARGINAL CAPE...EQUATES TO SPC/S OUTLOOK FOR MARGINAL SVR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THE DAYLIGHT HRS MONDAY. MODEL BLENDED TEMPS SUGGEST THAT HIGHS MONDAY COULD EDGE INTO THE L90S IN THE LOWER SUSQ PRIOR TO THE CFROPA...WHILE MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE IN LONG TERM PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS LINE SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS UP COMING WEEK WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD SPARK ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 01/21Z...ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG WEAK SFC TROUGH NEAR DUJ/FIG/UNV/IPT MOVG ESE WILL DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDED VCSH TO UNV/IPT ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTION. OTHERWISE STILL EXPECT VFR FLYING TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. 01/18Z...VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN PRIMARILY WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS /MOSTLY SPRINKLES/ WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN INVOF OF A SE MVG SFC TROUGH AND A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY LATE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES. NW WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP TOO...AND BACK TO THE WSW BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WEST-SW WINDS AT 5-7 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN...VFR. MON-MON NGT...VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SCT P.M. TSTMS. TUE...VFR. LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FAR NRN AIRSPACE. THU...VFR. LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FAR SRN AIRSPACE. && .CLIMATE... THE AVG. TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2015 AT HARRISBURG WAS 76.1 DEGREES OR +0.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMAL. THE TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL WAS 2.69 INCHES OR -1.92 INCHES BELOW THE 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMAL. NO DAILY RECORDS WERE SET DURING THE MONTH. THE AVG. TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2015 AT WILLIAMSPORT WAS 72.9 DEGREES OR +0.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMAL. THE TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL WAS 3.93 INCHES OR -0.41 INCHES BELOW THE 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMAL. NO DAILY RECORDS WERE SET DURING THE MONTH. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...MARTIN/TYBURSKI AVIATION...STEINBUGL CLIMATE...STEINBUGL

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