Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 012001 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 401 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... CONVECTION OCCUR IN THE CLEARING AND INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALONG A BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY RECENT RAINS. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT OVER NW PA...PERHAPS SOMETHING OF A LAKE BREEZE COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. NO LTG AS OF 245 PM...BUT A FEW PIXELS OF >50DBZ SHOWING UP IN THE TALLER CELLS NEAR KDUJ. STABILITY IS LOWEST IN THE WEST AND 500+ CAPES SHOWING UP THERE AS WELL. ORGANIZATION IS SO HAPHAZARD THAT IT ONLY CHC-LOW LIKELY POPS ARE ON ORDER IN THE WEST. SOME OF THE MESO MDLS WEAKEN THE CONVECTION AND SLIDE IT SOUTH THIS EVENING...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. BUT THAT NORTHERN WIND SHIFT/BOUNDARY MAY FLARE UP BEFORE TOO LONG AND ALSO MAKE SHOWERS/TSRA THERE. OVERALL...THE LOWEST POPS SHOULD BE IN THE SE. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENS AND/OR DIES OFF COMPLETELY...THE CONVECTION OVER OH/SRN IN MAY GEL INTO AN MCS AND ROLL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF/TWO- THIRDS. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE MCS...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF IT PRODUCING DECENT/CONSISTENT RAIN IS HIGH EVEN IF THE TS DIES OFF BEFORE/AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SOME 0.5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN UP THERE. LIGHTER RAIN WILL PROBABLY FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT IT COULD BE NIL AS WELL...SO POPS ARE AOB 50 PCT ALONG THE MD BORDER. THE DAY TIME ON MONDAY WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND SOME MEAGER HEATING HAPPENS. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR SEEMS TO HAPPEN JUST AS WE ARE WARMING UP. WHAT ARE CURRENTLY WARM MAX TEMPS COULD BUST AS WELL...IF THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN EXPECTED. WINDS COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE LAURELS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS MORE- DRY THAN THE MORNING. THE ONLY CHC TS IS ACROSS THE NE IN THE EARLY MORNING AND WAY FAR IN THE SOUTH. BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW IN THE AFTN IN THE SOUTH TO MAKE ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT. AHEAD OF THAT THOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID OR LATE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHERN PA AND ESP THE SUSQ VALLEY. TOTAL QPF IN THE HARRISBURG AREA LOOKS TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING N AND W. THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF THYE WEEK AS A DEEP SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS EVOLUTION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INSTEAD OF WRAPPING A SURFACE LOW BACK TO THE NE INTO PA WILL NOW MAINLY KEEP A STEADY FEED OF COOLER MOIST AIR - YET STILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND ESP THU...WITH FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN GENERAL AROUND THE WED NIGHT TO FRI RANGE. UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME. SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTANT SHOWERS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHRA COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MTNS VCTY IPT-UNV-FIG. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE SHORTLY IN JST. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED THE MENTION THERE FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DEEPER CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP NEAR BFD AND DROP S LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING AND THEN A CLUSTER OF TS WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN PA IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL BE LOW FOR MUCH A GENERAL/POORLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY OVER WRN PA WILL WILL FINALLY SLIDE TO THE SE AND ALLOW DRIER/COOLER AIR TO COME DOWN FROM THE NW ON MONDAY AFTN. CIGS/VIS WILL BE POOR FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. OUTLOOK... TUE...RA LOWERED CIGS/VIS...MAINLY SE. WED-THU...SCT SHRA. FRI...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...DANGELO

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