Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 182138
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
438 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017
An extended period of mild, spring-like weather with above
normal temperatures is expected through the end of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Temps keep exceeding expectations as southwest flow is providing
an early taste of spring.
Mainly sunny skies will gradually fade as mid and high clouds in
advance of an upper low lifting into the Tennessee Valley
gradually spread northeast. A shower is possible over far
southern Pa this evening into early Sunday morning, but the
guidance continues to play up the weakening of the upper low as
it gets shunted off to our south through the mean upper ridge
over the eastern US.
It will remain very mild overnight in the 30s and 40s. Most
places will average 20-25 deg above normal.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Any isolated showers over southern areas will dwindle rapidly
by or shortly after sunrise, leaving another very pleasant day
in store for the region. A weak back door cold front will
deliver slightly cooler air, but it will still be much warmer
than normal with a mix of sun and clouds.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The mild temperatures will continue through the extended
forecast as no cold air push is in sight. High temperatures in
general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min
temperatures mainly above freezing.
a rather strong ridge builds in for early next week. Surface
ridge axis splitting the region will bring a bit of northerly/
northeast flow to eastern sections, suppressing temps a bit (but
still remaining well above average).
Weak system slides by to the north Tue night, and brings quick
chance for showers. Flow turns SW by Wed as temps rebound.
Pattern becomes more amplified late week as a system over the
central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds
will increase late week, with warm front lifting through Thu
into Fri - bringing increasing rain chances heading into the
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --21Z TAFS sent.
Still a light wind at IPT, LLWS inserted into this TAF.
Earlier discussion below.
Expect widespread VFR into the overnight with a SW wind, gusting
to 20-25kt at times over the western 1/2 of the flying area.
Mid/high clouds will continue to increase. Guidance/soundings
continue to show shallow moist layer with weak upslope flow
producing sub-VFR cigs at KBFD/KJST later this evening into
Sunday morning. Highest confidence in lowest cigs at KJST and
can`t rule out a period of IFR.
All terminals should be VFR by mid day Sunday as high pressure
starts to nose in from the west.
Mon...VFR/No sig wx.
Tue-Thu...Sub-VFR psbl with chance of rain showers.
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NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte