Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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391 FXUS61 KCTP 270304 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1104 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND OF LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WATCH. FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE LATE THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSRA NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE ENDING BY ARND 01Z. STRATUS ACROSS THE N MTNS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING...THEN BREAK UP AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GLAKS. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LIKELY RESULTING IN PT-MCLDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST DESPITE WITH MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F FOR MOST OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE TODAY. A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH TRYS TO FORM. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SAT WILL BE DRY. OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE TOWARD MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME RAIN. OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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COLD FRONT THAT INITATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN IS ALIGNED WEST TO EAT ACROSS SRN PA LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AS A THUNDERTORM COMPLEX MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LITTLE PCPN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT GOOD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD SRN HALF TO SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF PA OVERNIGHT. LOWER /IFR/ CIGS IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL HANG TOUGH OVER NW PA AND POSSIBLY EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SWD INTO THE STATE TOMORROW RETURNING ALL SITES TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. OUTLOOK... WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY. SAT...FAIR. SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...GARTNER

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