Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 182138 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 438 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An extended period of mild, spring-like weather with above normal temperatures is expected through the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Temps keep exceeding expectations as southwest flow is providing an early taste of spring. Mainly sunny skies will gradually fade as mid and high clouds in advance of an upper low lifting into the Tennessee Valley gradually spread northeast. A shower is possible over far southern Pa this evening into early Sunday morning, but the guidance continues to play up the weakening of the upper low as it gets shunted off to our south through the mean upper ridge over the eastern US. It will remain very mild overnight in the 30s and 40s. Most places will average 20-25 deg above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Any isolated showers over southern areas will dwindle rapidly by or shortly after sunrise, leaving another very pleasant day in store for the region. A weak back door cold front will deliver slightly cooler air, but it will still be much warmer than normal with a mix of sun and clouds. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The mild temperatures will continue through the extended forecast as no cold air push is in sight. High temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with min temperatures mainly above freezing. a rather strong ridge builds in for early next week. Surface ridge axis splitting the region will bring a bit of northerly/ northeast flow to eastern sections, suppressing temps a bit (but still remaining well above average). Weak system slides by to the north Tue night, and brings quick chance for showers. Flow turns SW by Wed as temps rebound. Pattern becomes more amplified late week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase late week, with warm front lifting through Thu into Fri - bringing increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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21Z TAFS sent. Still a light wind at IPT, LLWS inserted into this TAF. Earlier discussion below. Expect widespread VFR into the overnight with a SW wind, gusting to 20-25kt at times over the western 1/2 of the flying area. Mid/high clouds will continue to increase. Guidance/soundings continue to show shallow moist layer with weak upslope flow producing sub-VFR cigs at KBFD/KJST later this evening into Sunday morning. Highest confidence in lowest cigs at KJST and can`t rule out a period of IFR. All terminals should be VFR by mid day Sunday as high pressure starts to nose in from the west. Outlook... Mon...VFR/No sig wx. Tue-Thu...Sub-VFR psbl with chance of rain showers.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Gartner/RXR AVIATION...La Corte/Martin

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