Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 160910 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 410 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the New England coast today. A cold front will move through the state overnight followed by high pressure for Thursday and Friday. A new frontal system will move into the area Saturday with much colder and blustery conditions following for the end of the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Main frontal shower band is fracturing as it crosses the Central Mountains late this evening. Most areas to see 0.10" or less total QPF from this event with slightly higher amounts over the northwest and west central mountains. Steadiest rain is still expected through 3am with precipitation then tapering to scattered showers. Overnight lows will range from the mid to upper 30s north and west to the lower 40s southeast...so no ptype issues. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Thursday will be a more or less typical cool season post cold frontal NW flow regime with plenty of clouds and scattered showers of rain or snow being mainly confined to our western and northern mountains. Highs will average near normal over the SE to between 5-10 deg colder than normal from the Laurels up into the NRN Mountains. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The alternating pattern of highs and lows continues as the pattern remains progressive through the extended forecast. CAA ongoing Thu night as next high pressure ridge slides in from the west. Friday will be chilly (about 5F below normal), but mostly sunny skies and light winds will will balance it out. This will quickly be followed by a deepening storm system that will move through the eastern Great Lakes Saturday. A warm front-cold front combination will bring a period of rain to the area around sunrise Sat in the west and midday elsewhere. The rain tapers off to showers Saturday night and Sunday as robust cold air advection kicks in - turning any lingering showers over to snow overnight Sat night (as 850mb temps progged to quickly drop and fall below 0C by 06z/Sun). As the trough axis moves by, regime will shift to a NW flow winter pattern highlighted by downslope drying for most of the central and eastern zones, but giving the northwestern zones a high likelihood for the season`s first real lake effect snow showers starting later Sat night and continuing into Monday. A period of brisk winds will accompany the cold temperatures to end the weekend, as temperatures across the NW and Laurels will not move much on Sunday. High pressure centered to our south will influence the weather to start Thanksgiving week, bringing a couple of dry days. Temperatures begin to modify Tuesday with a SW flow expected to develop. Model spread increases as weaker disturbances slide through a trough centered over the Great Lakes, decreasing forecast confidence heading toward Thanksgiving, but potential for weak waves to impact mainly NW half of CWA could bring chances for light snow during this time. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A moist southerly flow preceding an approaching cold front is producing low cigs early this morning at KBFD, where the flow is forced to ascend the high terrain of northwest Pa. Elsewhere, only MVFR/low VFR cigs noted along with a few rain showers. Upstream satellite imagery and model soundings support improving cigs at KBFD between 09Z-12Z, as plume of greatest moisture shifts east. The cold front will sweep east across central Pa between 14Z- 18Z, followed by gusty wnw winds. Bukfit soundings support gusts between 25-35kts across the area into the afternoon, then diminishing slightly by evening. Cold air will gather moisture from Lake Erie, depositing it as snow showers across Western Pa this afternoon. HREFV2 indicates the most significant snow showers with predominantly IFR vsbys will occur between 18Z-21Z at KBFD. Further south, predominantly MVFR conditions are expected at KJST, but a few heavier snow showers could briefly drop vsbys to IFR between 19Z-03z. Downsloping winds should result in predominantly VFR conditions later today across the eastern half of Pa. Outlook... Fri...Chance of early AM low cigs at KJST. Sat...Showers/low cigs possible, mainly KBFD. LLWS possible. Sun...MVFR/IFR in shsn NW. MVFR to low VFR central and east. Gusty winds 270-300 degrees. Mon...No sig weather expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gartner NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Gartner SHORT TERM...La Corte/Gartner LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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