Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 271532 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1132 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT MIDDAY WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT SHOULD USHER IN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT MIDDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS IN MOST PLACES. THE FAR NW SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY...NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF MODERATELY STRONG/DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT MAINLY SW WINDS IN THE 5-8KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENN...WHILE THE FAR WESTERN ZONES SEE THE WIND BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. 8H TEMPS GO UP ABOUT 10C THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO 70F IN THE SW/SC VALLEYS AND EVEN CLOSE TO 60F IN THE NORTH. THESE WILL BE ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE COAST WILL BE DISPLACED AS A PROGRESSIVE BUT CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING BY LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEW SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT-RISK CATEGORY OF /MARGINAL/ MAKES IT/S FIRST APPEARANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT BRIEFLY TAPS SOME INSTABILITY AND SWRLY WINDS ARE MORE THAN 50KTS AS CLOSE TO THE SFC AS 4KFT. BUT THE DEWPOINTS ARE PRETTY LOW AND CAPES VERY SMALL. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES QUICKLY THIS TIME OF YEAR...TOO. THUS...SOME THUNDER WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NW LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING TUESDAY...BUT DIMINISH BEFORE IT GETS TOO FAR INTO THE CWA. GUSTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FRONT HANGS UP AS A BIG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THWARTS THE SOUTH/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD AIR. THUS...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY HANG ON IN THE FAR SERN COS FOR THE FIRST PART OF WED. INITIAL CLEARING MAY BE CLOSED UP OVER THE NW BY A GRADUAL VEER TO THE WIND POST-FRONT. BUT THE FLOW IS NOT REALLY OFF THE LAKE INTO PA...AND MORE INTO WRN NY. WARM TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR TUES AS DEEP MIXING AND 8H TEMPS AROUND 13C ALLOW FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST PLACES. THE NORTHERN HILL TOPS WILL ALSO REACH RIGHT AROUND 70F. MINS WED AM MORE THAN 10F ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AT FIRST AND A NOT-SO-COLD INTRUSION ON WSW WINDS POST-FRONT. MAXES ON WED SHOULD BE PRETTY NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SHOULD BE RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE HUDSON BAY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. A SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE COULD RIPPLE OVER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST...ADVECTING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...AND IF COUPLED WITH ANY LAKE MOISTURE...COULD BRING OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THERE IS STILL GREAT UNCERTAINTY...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY IN TIMING AND IN TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THIS TIME-FRAME WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. EXPECT THAT SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD NEXT SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND SKC WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AIRSPACE. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO 210-240 THIS AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WESTERN TAF SITES KBFD AND KJST MAY SEE THE WINDS BACK AROUND ALL THE WAY TO NEAR 180 DEG. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FROPA IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY APPROX 06-18Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED/BRIEF SIG WX IMPACTS AND RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND WX. SOME ISOLD TS/LTG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS. POST FRONTAL LOW CIGS AND LAKE EFFECT SHWRS APPEAR LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS BFD AND JST. OUTLOOK... TUE NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS/-SHRA AND AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. WED...BRIEF MVFR AND SCT SHOWERS PSBL E IN AM...THEN VFR. LOW CIGS AND SCT -SHRASN NW. THUR...NO SIG WX. FRI...SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH AREAS OF MVFR...THEN COLDER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS...AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...CERU AVIATION...LAMBERT

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