Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 131443 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 943 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure over southern New England this morning will track northeast to Newfoundland by tonight. A deep upper level trough will swing through the region this weekend into the middle of next week, then lift out by the end of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface low rapidly moving through southern New England this morning with lingering precipitation ending quickly at mid morning across central PA. All headlines removed at this time, as accumulating snowfall has ended. Earlier Flood Watch for ice jam concerns was also cancelled as widespread flood jam threat has decreased, although highly localized impacts are still possible while jams refreeze. Much colder air continues to pour into the state on a gusty north-northwest flow today. SREF plumes indicate very little rise from early AM temps and highs only in the teens over the Allegheny Plateau to around 30 across the southeast counties. Arrival of dry, arctic airmass will bring clearing skies to the region later today and should limit lake effect activity to just flurries across the snowbelt of Warren County late today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Diminishing winds expected tonight, as high pressure settles southeast from the Grt Lks. Current indications are for apparent temps close to advisory levels over the northern mountains late tonight. Fair and cold weather expected Sunday with surface high directly over the state. NBM/Superblend guidance indicating max temps from the teens over the Allegheny Plateau, to the low 20s across the Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 00Z NAEFS and ECENS both indicating passage of a deep upper lvl trough the first half of next week, reinforcing the cold weather. Associated clipper is progged to track across the eastern Grt Lks, keeping bulk of light snow north of Pa. However, will maintain the chance of some light snow Mon night/Tuesday in the WAA ahead of trailing cold front. Bulk of med range guidance indicating a pattern change taking place by late week, as upper trough lifts out and a ridge builds over the eastern conus. Odds appear high of temperatures returning to above climo by Fri-Sat. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Shallow MVFR stratocu will likely linger from late this morning through tonight and much of Sunday as Bitterly cold air pushes into the region. A large amount of directional shear and a deep layer of dry air aloft will support nothing more than some spotty light additional accums this afternoon and tonight from flurries and localized/brief snow showers acrs mainly the Northern and Western Mtns of PA. Periods of similar MVFR to low end VFR strato cigs will spill over into the Central Ridge and Valley Region at times. Overall, conditions will improve to mainly VFR across the SE half of PA from late morning through Sunday night. North then Northwest winds averaging 12 to 18 kts and frequently gusting between 25 and 30 kts will be common through early this evening before slowly decreasing tonight. Outlook... Sun...No sig wx expected. Mon...PM light snow poss west. PM low cigs poss east. Tue...Morning snow ending. Becoming VFR south and east, lingering snow showers and restrictions over the mountains. Wed...Mainly VFR, but brief reductions in vsby and cigs possible across the Northern and Western mtns as a result of isolated snow showers.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... The fairly widespread moderate to heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches that fell across the region since Thursday afternoon has produced significant rises on rivers and streams with a few instances of ice jam flooding across northern Pennsylvania. A Flood Watch remains in effect through 10 am today across Central and Northern Pennsylvania for the combination of runoff and ice movement, that could lead to ice james and quick localized flooding immediately upstream from those jams. The greatest risk of flooding in the Watch area is over north- central PA where snowmelt has been an accentuating factor to the rainfall and runoff. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...DeVoir/Ceru HYDROLOGY...

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