Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300021 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 721 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A wave of low pressure will ride northward from the Tennessee valley and move through the state on Wednesday. Another widespread rain will occur and will be followed by much colder air for the second half of the week. The northwest flow after the storm passes will generate some lake effect rain and snow showers for the latter half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Remnant showers slipping away from eastern Lancaster County early this evening. The damp ground and high ambient moisture combined with the winds going calm again will probably result in areas of fog forming this evening and overnight. Normally, the still air and some clearing would be good for radiational cooling, but the 40-50F dewpoints will keep it from getting too cool overnight. Wide-reaching storm over the central and eastern CONUS will re- load with Gulf moisture overnight. A triple point low begins to form over the Ohio valley tonight as the heights fall over the Great Lakes and eventually over the eastern states on Wed. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Sfc low lifts up the old front and bubbles up to meet the OH vly low on Wednesday...resulting in widespread rain and perhaps even a thunderstorm along the MD border. However, the prob for T is very low, and will leave out of the wx grids for now. QPF still in the 0.5-1.00" range for Wed. The cold air will finally push into/across the region on Wed afternoon and evening. Wed night will be a return to November. Colder northwest flow will help generate some lake effect showers. It really won`t be cold enough in the cloud layer for snow until the very end of the short term period. Will not mention any accums since temps in the NW won`t even get to/below freezing by Thurs morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure area lifts over New England and then off the East Coast, setting the stage for an extended period of breezy west- northwest flow. The upstream airmass won`t be especially cold (still no "wintery" cold air to be found, so temperatures will drop but only to near or just below seasonal normals. But that air flowing over the still quite warm lakes will be enough to provide an extended period of widespread cloudiness and frequent lake enhanced snow / rain showers over the the NW mountains down into the Laurel Highlands, possibly lasting all weekend as several weak ill-timed waves ripple through the upper flow. Longer-range models finally compromising on a solution starting early next week, with the EC storm receeding from the map. Looks like Monday will bring ridging and rebounding temps to Central PA. A weaker storm system begins to get organized coming off the southern Rockies, with initial impacts for us being potential for a difficult to time wave to run out ahead in the SW flow. This will keep mention of chance rain in the forecast for Tue. More interested feature we`ll have to keep an eye on after that will be sharpening of the big trough/deepening of a surface low over the midwest next midweek, with Central PA sitting on the warm side. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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00Z TAFS sent. Western areas that had some clearing earlier, now have some dense fog at times. This will be the case overnight. Further east, IFR conditions will prevail with low ceilings. Not expecting much in the rain prior to Wednesday morning. LLWS in for BFD, given that the wind fields will be stronger there late tonight and on Wed. While conditions may improve at times on Wed, expect some showers and rain at times. Perhaps a thunderstorm late with the cold front, given the strong wind fields and rather high dewpoints for this time of year. Some snow and rain showers across the far west and north late Wednesday night into Friday, as colder air works into the area behind the cold front. Outlook... Thu-Sat...Sct SHSN w/ocnl IFR in BFD-JST. Isold SHRASN AOO-UNV- IPT. VFR SE. Sun...Mainly VFR. Restrictions still poss NW in the morning.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...La Corte/RXR AVIATION...Dangelo/Martin

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