Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170614 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 214 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak upper level low pressure system will bring a slight chance of showers today before a large ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather for much of the work week. Temperatures this week will run well above average.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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A weak upper level trough extends across southeast Pa, where a few isolated showers continue occasionally pop up on radar across our eastern CWA. Will keep pops very low. With another morning of mild and humid conditions, expect fog and patchy dense fog formation in the predawn hours. Fog will dissipate by mid morning, followed by sunny and mild conditions into the early afternoon. With a weak upper level trough in the area, isolated/scattered afternoon showers are possible in the midst of some modest afternoon instability. Surface based LI`s will be slightly lower and Capes a bit higher Sunday afternoon which could lead to a better chance of a rumble of thunder in some spots. Expect max temps from the upper 70s over the higher terrain, to the low and mid 80s in the Susq Valley.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather. The ridge will be reinforced with Hurricane Jose forecast to remain far enough offshore to just bring some high clouds to the eastern half of the area. As Jose moves away heights will rise and this should further dry us out for the latter part of next week. The GEFS forecasts a closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights by next Friday and Saturday which will translate to well above normal temps.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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03Z TAFS sent. The main issue will be clearing later, with dense fog again late. Southern areas last night did not get a lot of fog in some locations, given that clouds held for much of the night. Made a few changes so far to timing of the fog, which I will use for the 00Z TAF package as well. Previous discussion below. Widespread VFR will continue the evening. Late tonight will see a return of the fairly widespread and locally dense valley fog after midnight that will linger into mid morning Sunday. Then isolated/scattered afternoon showers will again be possible. .Outlook... Sun-Mon...Areas of A.M. fog. Mainly dry with VFR conditions. Perhaps an isolated afternoon shower. Tue-Wed...Mainly dry with patchy morning fog. Otherwise primarily VFR conditions. Eastern areas may see NE winds 10-20 mph as main impacts from Jose remain off to our east. Thu...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Ross AVIATION...Martin

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