Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 151249 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 749 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the New England coast today. A cold front will move through Wednesday night followed by high pressure for Thursday and Friday. A new frontal system will move into the area Saturday with much colder and blustery conditions following for the end of the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Nigh time blended images show most of the low clouds diminishing. We can also see the valleys from Clearfield County northward filling with fog. Otherwise a slow increase in high clouds is underway ahead of the frontal system that will be moving into the Ohio Valley today. While a shower may sneak into my far NWRN zones by the end of the day, most of the region will remain dry with just thickening cloudiness. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s will be near to slightly cooler than normal. A cold front will be racing east through the area overnight. The short term deterministic models agree on a coastal storm forming later tonight and early Thursday near the DelMarva. As the storm takes over the larger circulation, we will see the development of a brisk NW flow as the storm intensifies and moves north away from the region. CAMs agree on the best window for rain being from about 6PM to midnight with precipitation tapering to scattered showers after midnight. Overnight lows will remain enough above freezing to preclude any precipitation-type issues. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... Thursday will be a more or less typical cool season post cold frontal NW flow regime with plenty of clouds and scattered showers of rain or snow being mainly confined to our western and northern mountains. Highs will average near normal over the SE to between 5-10 deg colder than normal from the Laurels up into the NRN Mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A new area of high pressure will slide through Thursday night and Friday. This will be followed by a deepening storm system that will move through the eastern Gr Lakes Saturday. A warm front-cold front combination will bring a period of rain to the area during the day Saturday, before the rain tapers to showers Saturday night and Sunday. As most of my central and eastern zones dry out in the NW flow, indications are that the season`s first real lake effect snow showers will likely affect my NWRN zones later Saturday night and Sunday. Thanksgiving week will begin with a couple of dry days as high pressure moves off to the south of the region. Forecast highs by the Sunday-Monday timeframe will be well below normal, before beginning to modify Tuesday with a SW flow expected to develop. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Look for increasing mid level clouds streaming into the airspace from the Great Lakes this morning in advance of the next weather system expected to bring light rain to the area this evening and overnight into Thursday morning. Reducing conditions are probable for periods between 00Z and 12Z Thursday . Low level flow from the east/southeast may bring lower ceilings to the eastern airfields by Wednesday evening. The precip will likely end as shsn showers with MVFR to IFR conditions over the western higher terrain as cold air crosses over the Great Lakes behind a gusty NW wind. Outlook... Thu...MVFR/IFR Northwest in -shrasn. MVFR to low VFR central and east. Gusty winds from 270-300 degrees. Fri...VFR/No sig wx expected. Sat...Strong FROPA. LLWS. Showers ending as shsn NW. Gusty winds shifting 240 to 300 degrees. Sun...MVFR/IFR in shsn NW. MVFR to low VFR central and east. Gusty winds 270-300 degrees.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Ceru/Steinbugl

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