Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 112000 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A STRETCH OF COOL MORNINGS AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... RADAR QUIET SO FAR WITH JUST FLAT TOPPED CU FIELD ACROSS THE CWA. STILL EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH DID SCALE BACK POPS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGETOPS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. SOME VALLEY FOG LIKELY CLOSE TO SUNRISE BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SMALL AND WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SIMILAR WX PATTERN ON SATURDAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE A BIT EAST WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGETOPS. MODELS SHOWING UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE SAT NIGHT AND HAVE POPS THERE TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE GREATEST 850-700 MB TEMP ANOMALIES AND ASSOCIATED BELOW NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE AIMED AT THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID MISS VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR REGION RESIDING ON THE ACTIVE/EASTERN SIDE OF THIS SLOW MOVING FEATURE. AN EXTENSIVE CHANNEL OF HIGH PWAT AIR WILL PRECEDE THE INITIAL COLD FRONT AND STRETCH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ANOMALIES WILL CLIMB TO NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY /ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE STATE...AND FOR MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN/. AS HIGHER PWATS SURGE EAST INTO THE REGION AND CLIMB TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP WITH SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS INDICATING OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE THE WRN HALF OF PENN. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH CAPE AND RELATIVELY STRONG...30-40KT SWRLY 850 MB WINDS WILL YIELD A RISK OF A FEW SVR TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NW MTNS. SPC/S DAY 4 OUTLOOK SHIFTS THE MAIN THREAT AREA TO THE SE HALF OF THE STATE AS THE SFC COLD FRONT AND INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SPREADS SE ACROSS THE CWA. TRICKY CALL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE BULK OF COOLING ALOFT AND BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING /ASSOC WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KT...300 MB JET/ MOVES OVERHEAD. PAINTED IN CHC POPS FOR SHRA...AND ISOLATED-SCT TSRA FOR NOW. HOWEVER...CAN EASILY SEE THIS APPROX 24 HOUR PERIOD FEATURING MORE NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS DRIVEN SSE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDWEST TROUGH...PROLONGED HIGH PWAT AIR /AND LIFT BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET/ MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SERN ZONES WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN OVER THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA APPEARS TO DE- AMPLIFY LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT TO THE NE. THE DRIEST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL CANT BE RULED OUT EITHER OF THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPS START OUT AOA NORMAL PRECEDING THE CFROPA SUNDAY...AND PERHAPS MONDAY ACROSS THE SE ZONES...THEN COOL TO ATLEAST 4-6F BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG SAT MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION THAT DAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN-TUE...BRIEF...MAINLY PM...THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...LAMBERT AVIATION...ROSS

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