Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251809 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 109 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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BEHIND OUR DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM...A PRETTY FAMILIAR POST COLD FRONTAL PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND AND WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OF SNOW...OR EVEN SOME RAIN. THE SKIES OUT THE WINDOW ARE THE BRIGHTEST THEY HAVE BEEN IN NEARLY 2 WEEKS SO DESPITE THE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES...IT`S A WELCOME CHANGE TO THE RECENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY DREARY WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EVEN OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A DUSTING OVR THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MTNS WHERE SOME SHALLOW STRATUS/STRATOCU MAY BE SLOW TO DISPIATE. THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION ANYWHERE BUT HERE. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WHICH WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
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FRIDAY SHOULD PROVIDE ABOUT THE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE WE HAVE SEEN IN MANY A DAY. CLOUDS MAY START THE DAY IN THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THERE SKIES SHOULD BRIGHTEN TO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY. THE SUN SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... POTENT LONGWAVE UPPER TROF EXITING THE EAST COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROFFING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN US STARTING EARLY IN THE PD AND NRN STREAM ENERGY RETREATS INTO EASTERN CANADA...MDT TO STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THEN SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE IN 500MB FLOW PATTERN AFTER MONDAY AS THE ECMWF MOVES ENERGY EAST FASTER...WHILE THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE INTO MONDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS RESISTANCE FROM THE BUILDING UPPER FLOW. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND A MIX TO RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH RIDGING OR SWRLY FLOW ALOFT MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH A COOL DOWN TOWARD NORMAL BY NEW YEARS EVE. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS REMAIN MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO IFR AT TIMES. ALTOONA REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO 3000` SO THEY WILL TRANSITION TO VFR VERY SOON. OTHERWISE JST-BFD WILL REMAIN MVFR INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CONDITIONS THERE IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE IS A CONCERN CONDITIONS COULD LOWER AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW AS THE INVERSION TRAPS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT THOSE REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOCAL. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO MAINLY FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH OR LESS. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MON-TUE VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE

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