Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 242348 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 748 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough, located over the Great Lakes early this morning, will push slowly across Pennsylvania early this week. In its wake, high pressure will build southeast across the region by midweek. A cold front will likely push southeast across the region next Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Front passing with much drier (finally) air behind it. Last vestiges of storms leaving the SE counties now and all should be rather quiet as the front passes the very wet locations in the Mid and Lower Susq. There could be an isolated shower or two but large scale subsidence and drying will keep it mainly fair through the rest of the evening. There are some low clouds under the trough over the NW now, but any associated showers are expected to be light and also stay mainly to the north of the NY border. Fog may develop through the night - especially in the east where the ground is very moist - but that drier air could make it difficult to get back down to the dewpoint tonight. Of course the temps in the NW/Wrn valleys could make river valley fog with small/nil Tw:Ta differences. Will hold on that thought for the moment, as the air is pretty dry and the clouds moving in should keep it from radiating to really cold temps there. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A much more pleasant air mass will be over the region on Tuesday bringing a more comfortable day with little to no chance of rain for a change. Clouds may linger for a time over the Alleghenies and keep temps a bit lower than guidance. Highs will only reach the upper 60s north...and range through the 70s to the lower 80s elsewhere. A nice change with dewpoints in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High centered over central PA Tuesday night. Marine layer in easterly flow may bring some clouds and a slight chance of a shower into the eastern zones Wednesday. Next weather sytem moves in Thursday with increasing chances of storms into the night. Cold front moves southeast of PA Friday morning with a lingering chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the day as a short-wave drops over the ridge to the west and into the trough on the east coast. Conditions dry out for Saturday as high pressure builds in. A wave on the front that moved south of PA may bring showers up around the Mason-Dixon line Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper trough and sfc cold front will cross central PA by evening bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to central and eastern PA mid to late afternoon with intermittant localized impacts. Showers diminish by evening, but linger the longest in the northern mtns. This is also the best chance for ceiling restrictions tonight. With plenty of low level moisture around, expect valley fog to develop areawide as well. .OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed...AM cig restrictions north/west. Valley fog areawise. Otherwise no sig wx. Thu...Chance of afternoon TSRA/SHRA. Fri...Slgt chc of morning shra...otherwise VFR. Sat...VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Watson AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR

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