Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020112 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 912 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY LOCATED FROM DELAWARE INTO N VIRGINIA AT 00Z. A LOOK AT LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MCV NR KGAI LIFTING NE. RAP TRACKS THIS FEATURE THRU OUR SE COUNTIES BY ARND 05Z...AFTER WHICH THE THREAT OF HVY RAIN SHOULD WANE CONSIDERABLY. ALTHOUGH THE SE COUNTIES FROM ADAMS TO LANCASTER APPEAR IN LINE FOR A PERIOD OF MOD TO HVY RAIN LATE THIS EVENING...FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT HIGH...AS FRONTAL BNDY AND FOCUS OF STRONGEST CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE BORDER. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...SO WILL CARRY WATCH THRU MIDNIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA...LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST NR TERM MDL DATA...OVERNIGHT POPS RANGE FROM NR ZERO ACROSS WARREN COUNTY...TO 100 PCT FROM THE HARRISBURG AREA SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... FRONTAL WAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...CAUSING LINGERING -SHRA TO TAPER OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS WILL EDGE INTO NORTHERN PA...BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES THERE. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NERLY FLOW AND DEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUD COVER AND NE FLOW OFF THE STILL CHILLY N ATLANTIC SHOULD HOLD TEMPS WAY BLW SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BLEND OF LATEST LAMP/NAM POINT TOWARD HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM AVG ACROSS THE S TIER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 00Z TAFS SENT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE AT LNS AND MDT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO AOO AND UNV LATER TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM NW TO SE ON TUESDAY...GIVEN THE STRONG JUNE SUN. HOWEVER...NOT CLEAR CUT...AFTER A WARM AND FAIRLY DRY MAY...PATTERN FAVORS COOLER WEATHER AT TIMES...FOLLOWED BY AREAS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME LATER IN THE WEEK...AS WE ARE GETTING TO THAT TIME OF YEAR THAT COLD FRONTS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN S PA OR N MD. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. NORTH OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AS THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP IT MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS SO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... WED...VFR EARLY...THEN MVFR POSSIBLE WITH WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. THU-SAT...REDUCED CONDITIONS PSBL WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. && .CLIMATE... MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1 DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991, 1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN CLIMATE...

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