Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270520 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... RADAR SHOWS RAIN TRAILING THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY BACK WEST VA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AIMING NORTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL PA. THE HRRR USES THIS TO KEEP THE SERN 1/3-1/2 OF MY FCST AREA WET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY MID MORNING. OVER MY WESTERN COUNTIES...ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS ALREADY MOVED IN TO MAKE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FURTHER EAST RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE COLD AIR IS SCARCE SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. BLEND OF 18Z CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP SUGGEST TEMPS BY DAWN WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U20S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 40F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... ANY EARLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES SHOULD END BY LATE AM...AS SECONDARY SFC WAVE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ELSEWHERE...APPROACH OF UPPER LVL TROUGH COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY FOR LATE MARCH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY ARND FREEZING OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE M40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850 HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...CAUSING LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THE DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL DRY OUT BUT REMAIN COOL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND FRONT. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT AT 03Z NOW EAST OF CWA...WITH REMNANTS FROM EARLIER TSTMS CONTINUING TO IMPACT MD/E PA/NJ. ACROSS CENTRAL PA...COOLER AIR NOW FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW. SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS LOWER SUSQ TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NW HALF OF CWA INTO FRI. CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST HOUR /02Z TO 03Z/ HAVE TAKEN A QUICK TURN DOWNWARD AS MOST PLACES AT 02Z WERE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE AN MVFR DECK QUICKLY FILLED IN ACROSS THE REGION IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING FRI WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TOO. WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE MORE SIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR AS LOW CLOUDS AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT KBFD-KJST. FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH REDUCTIONS IN MOST PLACES...WITH MIXING BRINGING IMPROVEMENT FIRST IN THE SE THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL MTNS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR. MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR

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