Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 012243 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 643 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
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DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM HAS BEEN REACHED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA...WITH A FEW CELLS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. ONE STORM PRODUCED PEA SIZED HAIL OVER SOMERSET COUNTY EARLIER BEFORE MOVING INTO MORE STABLY STRATIFIED AIR EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. CAMS HAD EXHIBITED THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND PLAYING OUT VIA REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS...AND FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENS AND/OR DIES OFF COMPLETELY...THE CONVECTION OVER OH/SRN IN MAY GEL INTO AN MCS AND ROLL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF/TWO- THIRDS. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE MCS...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF IT PRODUCING DECENT/CONSISTENT RAIN IS HIGH EVEN IF THE TS DIES OFF BEFORE/AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SOME 0.5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN UP THERE. LIGHTER RAIN WILL PROBABLY FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT IT COULD BE NIL AS WELL...SO POPS ARE AOB 50 PCT ALONG THE MD BORDER. THE DAY TIME ON MONDAY WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND SOME MEAGER HEATING HAPPENS. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR SEEMS TO HAPPEN JUST AS WE ARE WARMING UP. WHAT ARE CURRENTLY WARM MAX TEMPS COULD BUST AS WELL...IF THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN EXPECTED. WINDS COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE LAURELS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS MORE- DRY THAN THE MORNING. THE ONLY CHC TS IS ACROSS THE NE IN THE EARLY MORNING AND WAY FAR IN THE SOUTH. BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW IN THE AFTN IN THE SOUTH TO MAKE ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT. AHEAD OF THAT THOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID OR LATE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHERN PA AND ESP THE SUSQ VALLEY. TOTAL QPF IN THE HARRISBURG AREA LOOKS TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING N AND W. THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF THYE WEEK AS A DEEP SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS EVOLUTION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INSTEAD OF WRAPPING A SURFACE LOW BACK TO THE NE INTO PA WILL NOW MAINLY KEEP A STEADY FEED OF COOLER MOIST AIR - YET STILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND ESP THU...WITH FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN GENERAL AROUND THE WED NIGHT TO FRI RANGE. UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME. SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM ARND KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST AT 21Z. MOIST SE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE NO IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...BULK OF LATEST OPER MDLS...AS WELL AS SREF OUTPUT...INDICATE CIGS MAY DROP A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT DUE TO SOME MODEST DIURNAL COOLING. FURTHER WEST...KBFD AND KJST HAVE EXPERIENCED MORE FAVORABLE CONDS THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...NEAR TERM MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS DETERIORATING CONDS ARE LIKELY AFTER DARK...AS FRONT RETREATS TO THE WEST AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. THUS...A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST APPEAR LIKELY BY LATE THIS EVENING. A BRIEF TSRA REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KJST BTWN 22Z-24Z...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST IT IS UNLIKELY. IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC WARM FRONT LIFT INTO THE REGION. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SUGGEST A RETURN TO VFR CONDS IS LIKELY BY MID MORNING AT KJST/KAOO AND POSSIBLY BY AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS FROM KIPT SOUTH THRU KMDT/KLNS. OUTLOOK... TUE...RA LOWERED CIGS/VIS...MAINLY SE. WED-THU...SCT SHRA. FRI...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD

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