Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 202237 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 637 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure well to the north of the state will slide to the south and east tonight and be centered over the eastern seaboard on Sunday morning. Low pressure will move from the plains states into the upper Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. A cold front will push through the state later Monday. The weather will remain unsettled through the week as a large upper level trough advancing slowly from the midwest. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
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Quite a forgettable day is now a somewhat forgettable evening weather wise across much of central and south central PA...thanks to subsidence inversion trapping llvl moisture resulting in overcast skies...drizzle and even pockets of light rain for much of the day. Still a large low cloud deck across the aforementioned areas and spits of drizzle falling out of them. Veering winds will bring limited improvement this evening to these areas. Outside chance of a shower over the Laurels but loss of daytime heating will quickly end this threat over the next hour or two.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Mid/high clouds will increase from the west tonight... overspreading areas that keep their llvl cigs through late evening. Winds will go light at most places. Convection will likely be strafing the western front in the morning as the flow takes the cells to the NNE, but the upper pattern shifts little by little to the east. Expect most of the area to remain rain free for the balance of the day on Sunday. POPs will be high over the west as heights fall sufficiently there by the end of the day. The morning cloud debris overhead will probably hold temps down, but not as cool as Sat. A more- southerly wind will push temps into the m-u60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front should cross central Pennsylvania Sunday night into early Monday, accompanied by scattered showers and possibly some thunder. Looks like flow from the south (parallel to the front) will push a wave up the east coast during the day on Monday, with a period of moderate rain poss in eastern counties (though biggest impacts look to be east of CWA). Lighter precip ends from the west during the day. A weak area of high pressure will build in for Mon night and Tuesday with a cooler morning and maybe some patchy fog in store. Weather pattern turns unsettled again during the middle and later part of the week, as an upper-level low drops into the Great Lakes and surface low pressure develops over the Mid- Atlantic region. Light showers may begin to work into the region on Wed, with Thursday looking quite wet and dreary as a soaking rain looks likely. The upper-low should begin to lift out by Friday, allowing conditions to slowly improve. Light showers or drizzle may linger under the upper low on Friday keeping a coolness in the air. The weekend should bring a return of brighter skies, warmer temps and dry weather. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Easterly flow at llvls is veering slightly with time and combining with heating of the May sun to make improvements at lots of terminals. The low clouds are holding on for the moment at UNV and AOO, but these should also rise to at least MVFR within the next two hours. DZ may also fall at MDT for a very short time based on radar trends. All the clouds out there now should rise ever so slightly and pull lots of the terminals to VFR which will last much of the night. Some fog is possible overnight despite the low dewpoints, as this lifting/clearing may not occur until closer to sunset in the central counties. Convection over the midwest will lift northward tonight, but the left over clouds will slide overhead. Wind will increase on Sunday morning - coming out of the SE at 10-15kt with some higher gusts in the aftn. Some light rain/showers are possible in the morning in the west. Sct TSRA will move into or develop over the western TAF sites in t. Then, much of the night will be VFR. Thehe aftn. Expect MVFR and eventually IFR conditions in the west before sunset, but not until Sun night for most of the area - when widespread SHRA/TSRA are expected. FROPA occurs from W-E late Sun night and Monday. SHRA/TSRA will last into Mon aftn in the east. .OUTLOOK... Mon...MVFR/IFR in SHRA/TSRA in the morning over the west and all day in the east. Tue...AM fog possible. Otherwise no sig wx. Tue PM-Wed...Restrictions developing with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Thu...Some restrictions AM Fog and possible showers. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Dangelo

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