Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220524 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 124 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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It will be very comfortable for much of the upcoming week. The next chance for rain won`t be until Thursday or Friday when a rather weak cold front slides southeast across the state.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Showers along a secondary cold front/dry line over the nrn mtns are dissipating as expected. Both the overall stability has increased a bit in the last few hours and the instability provided by a minor (so far) lake temp-air temp difference provided is also waning. The winds have also shifted even more to the NW as the secondary front has moved into the CWA. Expect these shra to continue to weaken. The latest near term guid does linger a few sprinkles in the NW and perhaps into the Laurels as the moisture and upslope flow combine to increase clouds there. The more-cloudy place this morning may just be the Laurels as the large-scale subsidence and drying work into the NW mtns first. No worries, though, as the sky should clear up almost entirely before noon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Monday will seem like we`ve jumped right into a splendid very late summer/early Autumn day with refreshingly cooler temps (especially across the mtns) and low humidity. Max temps (in the u60s to l70s across the mtns, and u70s to around 80F in the Susq Valley) will be 3-9 deg F below normal for the date. NW winds averaging 8-10 kts will gust into the mid to upper teens (kts) at times during the late morning/afternoon. Bkn clouds with possibly a few sprinkles will persist across the mtns until around 16Z...with mainly sunny skies in all areas for the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cooler, drier air will advect into the region bringing a long period of precipitation-free weather through most of next week. The next period of active weather will come as an upper level trough moves into the region Thursday night into Friday. A front with +1 to 2 STD/anomalous PWATS progress through Friday. That should correspond with a passing but possibly weakening/shearing cold front. Dry air under high pressure is expected for next weekend. The week will start off cooler due to the northwesterly flow but will gradually warm as the week continues with temperatures slightly above normal through the second half of the week. What will also make this week feel cooler is the lack of humidity as dewpoints will be in the 50s through most of the week. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Widespread VFR conds noted across Central Pa late this evening, as drier air pours into the region behind departing cold front. However, moisture from the Great Lakes will spread south into the region overnight, likely resulting in MVFR cigs across the Allegheny Plateau. Model soundings even suggest IFR cigs are possible early Monday morning at KJST, where northwest flow is forced to ascend the higher terrain of the Laurel Highlands. At KBFD, a diminishing wind and partial clearing could potentially result in a period of fog btwn 09Z-12Z. Any lower cigs/fig across Western Pa will mix out shortly after 12Z and there is a high confidence of VFR across the entire region for the rest of Monday, as high pressure builds over the state. Outlook... Tue-Wed...Patchy AM fog possible, esp KBFD/KIPT. Thu...Isold pm tsra impacts possible w mtns. Fri...AM low cigs possible w mtns. && .EQUIPMENT...
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The KCCX radar was activated in order to monitor the active weather on Sunday. Radome painting is not yet complete. Therefore, the radar will likely be taken off line during the expected benign weather stretch today+ to allow the work to be completed. The work will likely be completed in a day or two.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/La Corte NEAR TERM...Dangelo/La Corte SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald EQUIPMENT...

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