Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 252345 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 745 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN PA ON MONDAY. SEASONABLY WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... STILL A QUITE EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS POTTER COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF AN AREA OF WEAK LLVL THETA-E CONVERGENCE. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS AND ANOMALY PLOT OF SEVERAL SREF WEATHER ELEMENTS SUGGESTS THAT MOST CONVECTION /IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOL TSRA/ WILL STAY NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND FAR NWRN PENN /WITHIN THE AXIS OF STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX...AND CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT RESPECTIVELY/. MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN WILL RESIDE IN A RELATIVE MIN OF PWAT AND LLVL SWRLY WIND/MOISTURE FLUX. PRECIP CHCS TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF RT 6 IN NRN PENN WILL STAND THE BEST CHC OF SEEING A SHOWER /OR HEARING A CLAP OF THUNDER/. PLAN TO TRIM THE POPS IN ALL AREAS BY 10-20 PERCENT WITH THE NEXT...LATE EVENING ZONE UPDATE /UNLESS THE HIGH RES MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DICTATE OTHERWISE. NOT ALL THAT MUGGY OF A NIGHT IS IN STORE...BUT A BIT MORE HUMID THAN SAT MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 60S...BUT THE NORTHERN VALLEYS COULD GET COOLER IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT. HAVE KEPT LOWER CLOUDS IN FOR THE TIME BEING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY BUT IS ALREADY TOUGH TO FIND/ANALYZE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT. OF COURSE BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES HERE...THE WIND SHIFT WILL NOT BE AS DRASTIC AS IT IS THIS AFTN OVER LOWER MI AND SRN WI. BEFORE IT PASSES THOUGH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY HIGH CAPES PER THE NAM WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER IN PUSHING THE SFC FRONT THROUGH. THE GFS IS NOT SO BULLISH WITH THE CAPES DUE TO A MUCH QUICKER FROPA. WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO THE TIMING SOLUTION FROM THE NAM WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MESO MODELS AND THE ECMWF. THIS KEEP CONTINUITY WITH TIMING FROM PREV FCSTS AS WELL. NUDGED POPS A BIT HIGHER IN THE CENTRAL AND SE FOR THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCH UP THRU THE DAY...MAKING IT HAZY HOT AND HUMID WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S. SFC COLD FRONT IS GOING TO BE AN ODD THING...AS THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH DRIER. THE DEWPOINTS MAY ACTUALLY RISE SOME SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT THE SHOWERS WILL SINK TO THE SE AND DISSIPATE/BECOME LESS NUMEROUS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN U.S. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLC LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK COLD FRONT. THE NRN SEGMENT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE SRN PORTION LOOKS TO STALL OUT FROM THE OH RIVER TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. RISK FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHER TIER COUNTIES ON MONDAY. DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY STILL POP UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. NEXT CHC FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. INTERESTING FEATURE NOW BEING STRONGLY HINTED AT FOR END OF FORECAST PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO BROAD TROUGH. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF FOLLOWING WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED/THU WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARM FRONT ALOFT MAJKING A FEW CLOUDS IN THE N...BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS IN THE DOLDRUMS OF THE WARM SECTOR. SLIGHT S/SE WIND WILL GO BACK TO CALM TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS DO SNEAK SOME CONVECTION IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR KBFD. BUT IT WILL BE VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT EXCEPT PERHAPS KBFD/KIPT/KUNV WHERE A PASSING SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTN. OUTLOOK... MON-WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED PM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DANGELO

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