Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 011418 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1018 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES EXTENSIVE STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA THIS MORNING. INCREASINGLY DRIER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM REACHING AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM MCLDY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO MSUNNY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 12-14C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WED FROM THE L70S NW TO M80S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A FAIR WX AND LIGHT WIND. THE MCLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH A CALM WIND AND WET GROUND SHOULD PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. CAN/T RULE OUT A LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES ON THURSDAY...AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRES/LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY THURSDAY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. PTSUNNY SKIES AND MDL 8H TEMPS ARND 12C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE L70S N MTNS TO THE L80S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFS AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN FREQUENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND TUE. OOZ GFS APPEARS OUT OF PHASE WITH BULK OF OTHER MDLS WITH IT/S FASTER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING WETTER SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LINGERING IFR/MVFR CONDS THIS MORNING DUE CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG LEFTOVER FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/TSTS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPRAD VFR CONDS BY MIDDAY. BREEZY NWRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AS WELL IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING. OUTLOOK... THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN

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