Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200943 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 443 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Snow showers will taper off and lift northward this morning. Thanksgiving week looks mainly dry with temperatures trending milder to above average into Tuesday before cooling off to near seasonal levels for the rest of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Wind backing to the SW as the high pressure moves in from the SW. The earlier band which sat for so long over Clearfield and Centre Counties is dead and gone. Not much in the way of radar returns now as the subsidence inversion lowers. Sunshine should increase this morning in the SW and the E should go to full sunshine. Latest CAMs are very consistent in lifting any remaining snow to the north of the CWA before noon. Not enough snow left to fall to justify keeping the advy. So we will drop it now.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Clear skies and light wind in the east will allow temps to drop into the 20s while the SW breeze keeps the higher elevs in the SW in the lower 30s. Tuesday looks very nice/fair/mild. We`ll be under the thermal ridge Tuesday and will get into the u40s to l50s. As the sun sets, as small chance of a shower exists in the far NW.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A weakening front will slide by to our north and bring sct SHRASN to the NW half of the area Tuesday night and very early Wednesday. Another area of high pressure will build east and keep us mainly dry at least through the end of the week, before a new frontal system takes aim at the area.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Variable MVFR/IFR expected at KBFD and KJST for the rest of the overnight hours from frequent lake effect/orographically enhanced snow showers. Downsloping and drying will help to erode most the the MVFR strato cu deck INVOF KAOO/KIPT and keep those 2 locations mainly VFR. However, last few runs of the HRRR have displayed consistency with the forecast of a single, slow-moving band of mdt to briefly heavy snow showers from near KDUJ and KFIG ESE to KUNV for the next several hours. Low-level winds will back a bit more to a westerly direction across western PA, and help to enhance/focus boundary layer convergence along and just to the east of the current band of snow showers. Brief reductions to IFR/LIFR appear possible through about 06-07Z at KUNV and vcnty as a result of this snow shower band. Flurries and isolated to scattered -SHSN expected elsewhere across the Central Ridge and Valley region of the state, with predominantly VFR conditions. Winds/gusts will gradually decrease late tonight and shift direction to more westerly between 06-12Z Monday across Western PA TAF sites. BKN MVFR deck will prevail at KBFD and KJST with sct-bkn VFR Cigs at KAOO, KUNV, KIPT, KMDT and KLNS through the mid afternoon hours Monday. Skies will gradually clear out from south to north, with the sfc winds backing to the west southwest and decreasing to 6-9 kts after 20Z Monday Outlook... Mon...AM shsn/reduced vsbys possible NW mountains. Tue-Wed...Chance of rain/snow showers Tue night-AM Wed. Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ004-005.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...La Corte/Ceru AVIATION...Lambert/Steinbugl

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