Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260712 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 312 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK KEEPING US WARM BUT WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE FOG THICKENING UP THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS CONTAINING RIVERS AND LARGER STREAMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ABOVE AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE AND CLIMATOLOGY BOTH ARGUE FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA BTWN 08Z- 12Z...WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF QUICKLY AFTERWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT A FEW RURAL SPOTS COULD DIP TO AROUND 48-49F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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AFTER STARTING OUT WITH LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES TODAY UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE. RETURN SW FLOW AND ASSOC INCREASED DWPTS ACROSS NW PA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MIX OF SUN AND CU BY AFTN...WITH A GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABV THOSE OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE INITIAL PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A BIG RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN US...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH/BECOMING FLATTENED BY ONE OR TWO PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY SCOOTING EAST FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH WEDNESDAY...AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD UNTIL AT LEAST LATER WEDNESDAY-WED NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION AND CROSSES CENTRAL PENN LATE WED INTO EARLY THU MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA/SCT TSRA WILL OCCUR ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLR SKIES/CALM WINDS UNDER RETREATING AREA OF HP WILL AGAIN PROMOTE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG FORMATION ACRS THE CNTRL AND ERN TERMINALS. RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH OF A LGT SSE WIND TO LIMIT FOG AT WRN SITES. ALTHOUGH NOT ADVERTISED BY THE GUIDANCE...EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS MDT AND ESPECIALLY LNS WILL SEE MORE FOG THAN LAST NIGHT GIVEN POSITION OF DEPARTING HP. FOG/SHALLOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z GIVING WAY TO VFR FLYING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE SEWD THRU THE AIRSPACE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT OVERALL AVN IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN SPARSE CONVECTIVE CVRG. OUTLOOK... WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE AFTN/EVE. THU-FRI...A.M. VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN FOG PSBL..OTHERWISE VFR. SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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