Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170938 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 538 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move to near the New York - Pennsylvania border this morning, before retreating back to the north as a warm front later today and Tuesday. Southwest flow aloft will bring much above normal daytime and nighttime temperatures to the region right into Wednesday. A weak cold front will push through the Commonwealth on Wednesday, followed by a slight cooling trend for Thursday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Quasi stationary sfc front was situated from Saginaw bay...east to Lake Ontario early this morning. Plenty of cloud cover south of this boundary...across much of central PA was leading to very mild early autumn nighttime temps in the upper 50s to around 60F. A few nearly north/south bands of 925-850 mb theta-e convergence and weak vort maxs/broad upper diffluence aloft will lead to some areas of rain showers sliding east across the CWA during the early to mid morning hours. Rainfall could approach 0.10 of an inch in a few sports near and to the west of the route 219 corridor. However...most locations across central and northern PA will see a several hundredths of an inch at most. The least chc of rain through the mid morning hours will be across the south-central mtns and much of the area just west of the middle and lower Susq River Valley. Breaks in the cloud cover and better radiational cooling with sfc temps dipping to near the current dewpoints in the lower-mid 50s will lead to some patchy 1-2SM fog. winds will be mainly 5 kts or less from the south to southwest. Frontal system never really makes it to the northern border of PA and begins to retreat back to northern New York and New England today through Tuesday...with ridging and higher heights building in from south. Will have pops in forecast (mainly across northern PA today) until the front lifts north and away from the area. There could be enough sfc based instability for a few low-topped thunderstorms to form this afternoon (mainly north of Interstate 80). Look for another unseasonably warm day with temperatures well above average. A quiet night is expected for tonight...though fog and low clouds likely to form late with the ample low level moisture and longer nights. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A partly to mostly cloudy (mainly alto cu clouds) and mild night is in store with at least a light sw wind in the valleys. Southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are possible across the higher terrain and on the north/downslope side of ridges. Min temps will once again be in the upper 50s to around 60F...which is some 20 to 25 deg F above normal lows. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A strong southwest flow of air will keep warmer than normal temperatures across the region into early Thursday. A weak cold front (with very shallow and just slightly cooler air) will slide east through the region during the day Wednesday with just a few showers possible...mainly across the northwest half of the state. Still looks like some rain (averaging several tenths of an inch) and cooler temperatures for late in the significant energy digs SE from the Rockies and helps to amplify a longwave trough across the eastern U.S., and push a strong sfc front through the region Thursday night and Friday. Would not be surprised if by the time the colder air moves in, it is less than what the models show. For now, enjoy the nice weather. 850 mb temperatures support temperatures at least in the lower 80s by Tuesday. Given the west to southwest flow, if we get much mixing, most likely it would be warmer than the lower 80s. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Another round of scattered restrictions across the lower and mid Susq Valley in fog - which will mix out by mid morning. A weak cold front will move to near the New York - Pennsylvania border this morning, before retreating back to the north as a warm front later today and Tuesday. Through the first half of the day though, cig/vsby restrictions will impact the northern mountains from KBFD to KIPT. Elsewhere, a line of dying rain showers may bring ligth amounts to western sections, otherwise generally VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will pick up a bit from the SW at speeds of 5-8 mph. Improving conditions tonight with generally VFR conditions, though patchy fog will develop again - mainly in the Susq Valley. A weak cold front will push through on Wednesday, bringing showers and cig restrictions to the NW mtns starting Tue night and likely restrictions into central mtns on Wed. Outlook... Mon...Cig reductions likely north into the aft. AM fog south. Tue...Patchy AM fog. Tue night...Reductions NW half with chance of showers. Wed...Reductions NW half and potentially into central mtns. Thu...Chance of showers, esp west. Fri...Chance of showers.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...RXR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.