Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290834 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 434 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER JAMES BAY WILL DIRECT COOL AIR INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 555 DAM UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER JAMES BAY IS PULLING COLD AIR ACROSS THE LAKES. THE MOISTURE IS CLIMBING THE SLOPE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SOUNDS LIKE WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY TYPE IN MID-WINTER AND NOT IN THE DOG DAYS. THE RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A PLEASANT IF NOT CHILLY SUMMER/S DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH 8H TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE DAYTIME...MAINLY THE PEAK HEATING TIME. THE HIGHEST POPS IT IS WORTH IS ABOUT 30 DUE TO THE EXPECTEDLY SPARSE COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE COLDEST AIR. WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF T IN THE FAR NW AS WELL. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS INCHING DOWN INTO THE M/U40S EVERYWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SOME MEASURE OF STABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING AND RESULT IN A QUIET NIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE A STRAY SHOWER IN THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS. BUT A LULL IN THE UPPER FORCING SHOULD DIMINISH ALL THE SHOWERS AND MANY OF THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN WITH LOWS TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT READINGS. AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE OF FORCING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE WEST. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS DO BACK A LITTLE. HEIGHTS DO NOT REALLY FALL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE VORT MAX IS VERY POTENT. THE BEST OF THE FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SMALL HAIL TO THE SCT/NMRS TSRA FOR THE NW ON WED AS SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE DY2 OUTLOOK. TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL BUT WE SHOULD ADD 3-4F ONTO WHAT WE SEE TODAY/TUES. AGAIN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND PERHAPS QUICKLY/COMPLETELY BY 9 PM...AS THE FORCING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE FOLLOWING SUPPRESSIVE FORCING/SINKING WILL QUELL THE INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...THE 8H TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED A LITTLE AND WILL BE UP TO A BALMY 10C FOR THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY AND THURS MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE FAVORED TIMES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS GONE NOW...BUT STILL SOME CLOUDS. EXPECT LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY THAN ON MONDAY. 06Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND JST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR HAS TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDS AT KBFD/KJST WITH BOTH LOCATIONS REPORTING ONLY A SCT LAYER ARND 800FT AT 03Z. HOWEVER...MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY RESULT IN A RETURN TO IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD BETTER FLYING CONDS IN THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION WITH OCNL MVFR LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV. THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS ARND 5KFT. OUTLOOK... WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS. THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS. FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN

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