-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
371
FXUS61 KCTP 290458
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1258 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* The coverage of storms will decrease into the evening with
  widespread patchy fog developing over most of CPA tonight.
* Sunday will be the best day of the last weekend of June with
  lower humidity and rain-free/dry conditions
* Stormy pattern resumes early next week with renewed risk of
  strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
A few stay isolated showers and storms remain in the CWA,
however the threat for severe weather and flooding has mostly
ended for the evening. Low status and billow clouds over the
eastern half of the CWA kept the airmass mostly stable through
the early afternoon hours preventing the line of storms that
came through from being too unruly. The aforementioned clouds
eventually broke up, allowing for some airmass modification and
a few storms to kick up in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but
instability was limited due to the short amount of time that
area saw direct sunlight.

The remaining convection over CPA will dissipate over the next
couple hours, and rain chances drop to near zero just after
midnight tonight. Given the ample moisture across the ground and
diminishing winds overnight, widespread patchy fog is expected
to develop across most of the area. Anticipate some visibility
reductions, especially during the pre dawn hours of the morning.
Lows tonight will reach near 70 across the southeast to the
upper 50s in the northwest mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure building into CPA behind the front provides a
dry period tonight through Sunday.  Sunday will see a return of
sunshine, drying conditions, and warmer temperatures once high
pressure is in control. High temps on Sunday will reach the low
80s across the northern tier of the commonwealth to the low 90s
near south central PA along the Mason Dixon line.

The stormy and unsettled pattern resumes early next week with a
shortwave trough progressing through the Great Lakes sending a
quasi stationary/warm and cold front through the region Monday
and Tuesday. Partly cloudy skies to begin the day on Monday will
allow for plenty of destabilization of the atmosphere. That
combined with ample moisture returns from the south will provide
the ingredients for another round of strong storms Monday
afternoon ahead of and along the front. Isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper-level ridging early in the week will be replaced by
upper-level troughiness across the northeastern United States
for the second half of the week. By next weekend, the upper
level pattern will become more zonal.

As for sensible weather...a cold front will cross the area on
Tuesday, accompanied by a good chc of SHRA/TSRA. Behind this
front, a (slightly) cooler and drier airmass will return for
the remainder of the work week.

There could be a few aftn SHRA/TSRA on Thursday in response to a
weak shortwave trough. Otherwise, much of the second half of the
week (Wed-Fri) should be rain-free.

As sfc high pressure slides off the East Coast and winds become
southerly, warmer temperatures and increasing humidity will
return for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For the 06Z TAF package, not a lot of change from earlier
this evening.

Main issue overnight will be fog, given light winds and not
much in the way of clouds, other than some high cirrus clouds.
Still rather high dewpts the southern portion of central PA.

Showers now south of central PA, as of 1 AM.

Earlier discussion below.

Clearing skies and diminishing winds overnight should provide
good conditions for fog development. At 03z, we`re already
seeing hints of reduced vsbys and/or cigs at a few locations
around central PA (including IPT). I hit the fog/low clouds a
bit harder at some of the TAF sites than the model guidance is
suggesting, based on favorable meteorological conditions and
wet ground from earlier rainfall.

After any fog/low clouds mix out in the morning, expect dry
weather and widespread VFR conds for Sunday.

The next cold front will arrive early next week. Some of the
accompanying storms could be on the strong side once again.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...SHRA/TSRA expected, with periods of fog and low
clouds overnight.

Wed...AM fog, then VFR.

Thu...Primarily VFR, although a few aftn SHRA/TSRA are
possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Bowen
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Bowen/Tyburski
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Evanego
AVIATION...Martin/Evanego