Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 150439 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1139 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move overhead tonight. A cold front will move through Wednesday night and then another will move through over the weekend with high pressure in between the two. Much colder and blustery conditions will follow for the end of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Lowering inversion heights finally eroding the low cloud deck which plagued central PA all day. GOES imagery shows all of the Northwest Mountains, and much of the Central and North Central Mountains are clearing rapidly late this evening. Some question as to how much clearing takes place over northeast PA but based on latest trends will reduce cloud cover everywhere overnight. Maritime flow may keep the southeast cloudiest overnight despite current decreasing cloud trend, so will keep things cloudiest to the east and southeast. Mins should range from the mid to upper 20s northwest to the mid 30s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Any clearing overnight or in the AM on Wed may close up again as the flow around the sfc high brings maritime moisture up from the Atlantic. The ern cos. may be cloudy and may even have a light shower or patch of DZ by day`s end. The west will see the high clouds thickening and lowering. By sunset, showers may be into Warren Co., but most likely hold off until 00Z. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm front lifting through in advance of low pressure area (over the Great Lakes) will bring chance for showers to western sections on Wed with higher likelihood of showers moving in Wed night as the surface low/closed upper low tracks north of PA. Colder air filtering in and cold pool aloft will bring a mix with snow showers to the northern mtns on late Wed night into Thu. Ridge of high pressure slides through Thu night through Fri. This will be followed by a deepening storm system that will move into the upper Great Lakes later Friday into Saturday - with rain moving in from the west Fri night and persisting into Saturday as a cold front swings through. The GFS continues to bring the front through earlier in the day, while the ECMWF holds it back until Sat night keeping showers around longer on Sat. Rain showers will transition to lake effect snow showers Saturday evening/night and Sunday with arctic air sweeping into the state. NW flow will then bring clouds and impacts from lake effect snow showers to NW portions into Mon. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Clearing trend ongoing and is a bit faster than anticipated with patchy fog formation possible into the predawn hours. Look for increasing mid level clouds streaming into the airspace from the Great Lakes early Wednesday in advance of the next weather system expected to bring light rain to the area Wednesday evening/night. Low level flow from the east/southeast may bring lower ceilings to the eastern airfields by Wednesday evening. The precip will likely end as shsn showers with MVFR to IFR conditions over the western higher terrain as cold air crosses over the Great Lakes behind a gusty NW wind. Outlook... Thu...MVFR/IFR Northwest in -shrasn. MVFR to low VFR central and east. Gusty winds from 270-300 degrees. Fri...VFR/No sig wx expected. Sat...Strong FROPA. LLWS. Showers ending as shsn NW. Gusty winds shifting 240 to 300 degrees. Sun...MVFR/IFR in shsn NW. MVFR to low VFR central and east. Gusty winds 270-300 degrees.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Steinbugl

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