Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 250656 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 256 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
IR STLT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM TN/KY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. RADAR SHOWS PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NEWD OVER CENTRAL OH AND NRN WV. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB SECTOR BTWN 12-15Z...WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SFC TEMPS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BFD WHICH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT JST /DESPITE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PCPN/ WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY WITH NEXT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AT 09Z. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE LLWS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.