Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 191857 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 257 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of rain will last into early Friday. A few strong storms are possible Thursday. The weekend appears to start dry but probably ends wet for most of the area. Temperatures will fluctuate through the weekend with the warmest days on Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WAA/isentropic lift associated with increasingly moist west- southwest low level jet will promote widely scattered light rain showers today. Latest radar loop shows scattered showers across the northrn thirds of the state with a diminishing batch across the southeast. Break over the southwest corner now should see more activity later this evening as a frontal boundary pushing southeast across the eastern Great Lakes provides better focus for showers. It will stay relatively mild tonight under cloudy skies with lows mainly in the low- mid 50s. HIRES models and ensembles appear to be signaling potential for locally heavy QPF/1+ inch rainfall amounts from NE Ohio into W PA early tonight where elevated frontal convection may train parallel to to the WSW low level flow along the boundary. Made manual adjustments to POP/QPF fields based on a blend of HIRES models and SSEO/NCAR meso ensembles.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... *A few strong to severe storms are possible late Thursday afternoon and evening across the NW Alleghenies. SPC expanded D2 MRGL risk area further into NW PA on Thursday. Latest model data shows 500-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE developing by the afternoon as low pressure/trailing cold front track east across lower MI and the Upper OH Valley. Max POPs are Thursday night over the northern tier based on multi-model/ensemble blend. PWATs drop off quickly behind the front with conditions drying out from west to east into Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... POP trend continues downward from NW to SE on Friday as drier air spreads east across the area. Confidence is increasing for a mainly dry second half of the day. Still expecting max temps to make a run at 80F over the LSV. Friday night into the first part of Saturday is most likely a dry period with increasing chance for rain into Saturday evening/night. There is uncertainty with the northern extent of pcpn shield associated with low pressure tracking east-northeast through the TN Valley and across the southern Appalachians. Better model agreement with this cycle allows for increasing confidence in the main pcpn window from roughly 00z Sun to 00z Mon with early next week now looking drier than previously fcst. Temps cool off over the weekend before rebounding through early next week. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR cigs over much of the airspace from lingering ceilings will persist through the evening. Expected main cluster of showers will move through after 00Z and should bring periods of IFR after 03Z to most TAF sites. The occasional rain showers and reduced conditions will continue through Thursday as a vigorous upper level trough drives a frontal system through the region. As the front moves through Thursday Night and Friday, we will likely see widespread showers and possible strong thunderstorms. Outlook... Thu-Fri...SHRA/TSRA. Restrictions likely. Sat...MVFR due to clouds/isold SHRA NW. No sig wx elsewhere. Sun...Widespread MVFR/IFR with rain. Mon...No significant weather expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gartner NEAR TERM...Gartner SHORT TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Ceru/Gartner

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