Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 180301 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1101 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge is likely to remain over the region for the next week, resulting in warm and generally dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 0230Z radar loop showing just a few isolated showers/sprinkles left across the northwest mountains. Upper trough axis has shifted east of the region, so with lack of large scale forcing expect these diurnally-driven showers to die out around midnight. Clearing skies and a calm wind will promote areas of valley fog late tonight, some of which will be dense. Min temps will range from the upper 50s in the coolest valleys of the Alleghenies, to the mid 60s over parts of the Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Monday will start off with the valley fog burning off to a partly-mostly sunny afternoon. Upper ridge axis, which has been over the eastern Grt Lks the last couple of days, is progged to shift over central Pa Monday, so will only carry chance POPs of a late day shower across the extreme northwest portion of the forecast area, with dry weather very likely for the rest of the forecast area. As for Monday`s highs, there is very little change in model 850 temps from today, so will not stray much from todays maxes, ranging mostly in the upper 70s and low 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather. The ridge will be reinforced with Hurricane Jose forecast to remain far enough offshore to just bring some high clouds to the eastern half of the area. As Jose moves away heights will rise and this should further dry us out for the latter part of next week. The GEFS forecasts a closed 5880 m ridge over us with near +2 sigma above normal heights by next Friday and Saturday which will translate to well above normal temps. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Other than maybe a shower at BFD for another hour or so, just some clds. A little more clouds in a few spots than I had earlier, so backed off on the timing of the fog an hour or so in a few spots for the 03Z TAF update. Earlier discussion below. VFR conditions this evening will deteriorate once again overnight with fog and low clouds bringing fairly widespread MVFR/IFR for a few hours either side of sunrise Monday. After early restrictions, Monday will be a virtual carbon copy of today with some afternoon showers possible in a few spots. .Outlook... Tue-Wed...Mainly dry with patchy morning fog. Otherwise primarily VFR conditions. Eastern areas may see NE winds 10-20 mph as main impacts from Jose remain off to our east. Thu-Fri...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Ross/Gartner AVIATION...Martin

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