Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220543 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 143 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions. There is a very low chance for isolated rain showers heading into the weekend, followed by more fair and tranquil weather with seasonably cooler temperatures Sunday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A mostly clear, tranquil night underway with high pressure ridge over the area. Just a bit of thin cirrus affecting the southeast counties in association with upper low over North Carolina. Persistence forecast looking good, with patchy fog expected btwn 08Z-13Z, mainly in the valleys north of I-80. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The first day of astronomical Fall will feel more like Summer with more dry wx and above normal temperatures. A frontal boundary extending from the Upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes into Upstate NY will slowly sink toward northern PA by the end of the period. A very low chance for isolated showers remains confined to the north of I-80 later Friday into Friday night/early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models remain in good agreement in pushing a backdoor cold front southward through Central PA Fri into Sat. Odds for measurable rain are still very low with precip probs in the 10-20 percent range. A seasonably cooler and refreshing fall airmass will arrive behind the front with Saturday as the transition day to cooler temperatures. These will last into early next week. Some of the colder spots in north-central PA look to dip into the 30s - which is not unusual for this time of year. Amplified pattern evolving next week will keep a shortwave Mon off to our north with impact being a bit of a reinforcement of the cooler/drier airmass. This pattern also favors a slower eastward progression of frontal system/upper low over the Midwest, and so have continued the trend of pushing back max PoPs into into midweek with a general shift to the west of the PoP gradient as the 12z GFS better agreeing with the latest ECMWF. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Patchy fog early this morning will give way to widespread VFR. Used persistence/yesterdays surface obs as primary guidance with period of IFR vis/cigs most likely at BFD/IPT/LNS between 08-13z. Outlook... Thu-Mon...Patchy AM fog possible with mostly clear days.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Astronomical Fall begins at 1421 UTC/1021 AM today.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gartner NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Steinbugl CLIMATE...Steinbugl

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