Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 190316 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1016 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the East Coast on Monday. An anomalous upper level ridge will build off the east coast this week warming the region to near record temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will move into Pennsylvania on Wednesday. A very wet pattern then sets up with the temperatures slightly cooler, but still much above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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No hints of fog yet even as dewpoint spreads have gone to zero in a few places. Will just mention patchy fog for the latter half of the night. Otherwise, temps should not fall much more (see first sentence). Prev... Only thin high clouds out there now. We have some relatively high dewpoints from all the melted snow, too. Will have to watch for some fog to develop. Moist southerly flow will likely bring some low clouds up the Appalachians overnight, but no rain or drizzle is expected until very close to sunrise in the Laurels. The rest of the area will stay dry. The lack of lower clouds could allow temps to drop off quickly in the normally-colder spots/valleys. So, again, just going to be on the lookout for some fog.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Took a quick look at stability for mid-day/early aftn tomorrow since we will be mild and models are pumping out 0.5" to 0.75" across the central-northern part of the CWA. There is some elevated instabilty (8H-5H), but sfc-based LI`s stay stable. A potent 55-60KT LLJet will be pushing across at that time. Have chosen to mention just a chc of T for a stripe roughly between FIG/UNV and BFD. Mid shift may want to revisit with only the 00Z NAM in just yet. Prev... Rapid increase in deep layer moisture takes place Monday as channeled southwest flow advects higher rh into the region. Embedded southwest 850 mb jet and advancing warm front will focus best chance of rain over western sections, but eastern areas will be cloudy with spits of rain and drizzle developing Wedge of cooler air remains trapped east of the Appalachians. Highest POPS of 90 pct are painted across the northwest mountains, where best isentropic lift indicated at nose of low level jet. Southern portions of the Laurels and South Central Mountains may see late day improvement as the front lifts northward, but ageostrophic easterly flow likely to keep clouds in place. Western and southern areas will warm to near 50F Monday afternoon, while the east/northeast will remain mired in the low to mid 40s for highs.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... All medium range guidance continues to show a building anomalous upper ridge along the east coast next week, with central PA breaking into the warm sector by Tue. 500 mb heights fcst to 596...not sure I have seen heights this high as this in Feb. Anyway...record high temps appear quite possible Tue/Wed. Hard to recall a pattern like this...with the upper level flow off the Gulf of Mexico. Mid shift had temperatures a little warmer than I had them yesterday. After looking things over...did up temperatures even more. Easy to see temps between 70-75F over much of the area both days...if not higher. A cold front will push through the region Wed PM...accompanied by a chance of showers. This boundary will likely stall just south of Pa before returning north as a warm front late in the week with a renewed chance of rain. Med range models do indicate there could be just enough low level cold air for the potential of some fzra Thu night or early Friday across northern Pa. Did not change much in this time frame...given how far out things are. Past this time frame...models show a low moving across the Great Lakes on Sunday. This would support another warm up. For day 7...the fcst is largely the superblend...with some minor adjustments. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will build east across Pennsylvania later today. Primarily VFR flying conditions expected through late tonight. Winds will be below 8 mph through tonight. High pressure will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight as a warm front approaches from the Ohio Valley. A developing southerly breeze will bring LLWS in late, especially over the western portion. This will also aid in spreading stratocu restrictions in from the SW predawn Monday, with light rain and more widespread restrictions prevailing during the day Monday. Outlook... Mon...Restrictions return in light rain, especially northern half. Tue...Restrictions early east. Scattered rain showers and restrictions NW. Wed...Restrictions likely in rain showers, mainly NW half. Thu-Fri...Restrictions probable in rain showers. && .HYDROLOGY... Unlike the event last Thursday evening...the flow is less west...east with the next system. Strong upper level ridging should push the warm front to the north faster. Thus QPF should be rather light across the area prior to 18Z Wed. Heaviest QPF prior to this time will be likely across northwestern Warren County Monday evening...with perhaps isolated amts in the .50 to .75 inch range. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...DeVoir/Ceru HYDROLOGY...

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