Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 141901 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 301 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CUMULUS DISAPPEARUS. MIXING AND DRYING HAS DEALT THEM A HEAVY BLOW. HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA WON/T IN THEMSELVES BE ENOUGH TO BUMP SKY COVER UP...BUT THAT AND THE ADVANCE OF SOME STRATUS FROM WV WILL LEAD TO A BIT HIGHER CLOUD COVER TONIGHT IN THE SC AND SERN COS. NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL COVER THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY MAKES THE USUAL HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST FEW KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME FOG. WILL ADD ANY MENTION OF PATCHY FROST INTO THE COLDEST AREAS OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLR OR JUST A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN THE FORM OF VALLEY FOG ALSO ON ORDER WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A WORRY...MAINLY NORTH. MINS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CLOUD COVER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT. THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING. MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700 MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL. DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING ALREADY...BUT ADDITIONAL LOW-ER CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SRN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING AT THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS. OUTLOOK... TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DANGELO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.