Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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694 FXUS61 KCTP 092015 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 315 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN ONGOING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
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BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ /MAINLY EAST OF THE RIVER AT 20Z/ WHERE RATES IN HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS ARE RUNNING AROUND A HALF TO AN INCH/HOUR. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS AREA OF SNOW LIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WARNINGS/ADVISORIES EXPIRE. ELSEWHERE...FOCUS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE ON A N/S ORIENTED BAND DROPPING OFF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND IT LOOKS INTENSE ENOUGH TO BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS IT PASSES. OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS BASICALLY REMAIN STEADY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED CONTOURS... BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OLD UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY- FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE WHOLE...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE STACKED WEST WIND PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF COURSE...THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN CO...AND HAVE COORDINATED TIMING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MAINLY NW WARREN COUNTY. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME TO COVER END OF POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS. TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... *IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESP SOUTH OF I-80...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO VSBY...AS SNOW TAPERS TO FLURRIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. OUTLOOK... WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST. THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024- 033. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR

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