Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 242015 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 415 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will remain north of the region through Saturday before sagging south ward across central Pennsylvania Saturday night and Sunday. Very mild conditions are expected tonight and Sunday as we enjoy the warm sector south of the frontal boundary. However...increasing clouds and southeast flow are expected on Sunday as the boundary sags southward as a backdoor cold front...bringing cooler conditions and eventually some patchy drizzle or light rain. Unsettled conditions will last from late Sunday through Tuesday as a series of disturbances interact with the front. No heavy rain is expected during this timeframe however. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Much milder air flooding into western and central PA at mid afternoon as warm front jumps northward of the NY/PA border. A very rapid warm up ensued at midday with afternoon temps eventually ending up some 20 to 30 degrees higher than this morning. The aforementioned warm front remains north of the region tonight...bringing a mainly fair and mild Friday night. Lows into Saturday should range from the upper 40s to low 50s. There will be areas of low clouds and drizzle in the vicinity of the NY border adjacent to the stalling sfc boundary. Areas farther south stand to see the least cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Saturday will be the best of the weekend days as the quasi stationary front remains north of or along the PA/NY border. Very mild temperatures are expected again with maxes ranging from the mid 50s north where more in the way of clouds and patchy drizzle or light showers are expected...to the upper 60s south where a good deal of sunshine is expected. There could be some isolated to scattered afternoon showers in the increasingly warm and unstable air central and south...but most will stay dry. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Frontal boundary sags back into the region from the north (pushed by a high pressure area sliding SE across S Ontario) on Sunday as a low approaches from the Ohio Valley. This will sag cooler and more moist air into the region. Light showers/drizzle possible through much of the day, but main precip event impacts central PA Sun night into early Mon as low moves through. QPF looks to be around 0.50 inch. Temps Sunday will be noticably cooler behind the backdoor cold front and a likelihood of rain. However, above average temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely through early next week, as GEFS indicates PA remains beneath a mean upper level ridge and plume of anomalous PWATs. The chance of showers again spikes with passage of next shortwave Tuesday into Wednesday and another one to start the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR south and MVFR north as warm front lifts into southern NY state. This will be the trend overnight as generally VFR conditions are seen south and MVFR to lcl IFR posbl north in low clouds and drizzle near stationary frontal boundary over southern NY. Outlook... Sat...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain northern 1/2 airspace. Sun-Tue...Sub-VFR with periods of rain. Wed...MFFR to VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...Grumm/DeVoir/Lambert SHORT TERM...Grumm/DeVoir/Lambert LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DeVoir/Steinbugl

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