Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270608 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 208 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT SHOULD USHER IN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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WIND IS DIMINISHING BUT TEMPS STILL STRUGGLING TO FALL AT MANY LOCATIONS. OF COURSE...THE COLDER RURAL SINKS LIKE THV AND SEG ARE RACING DOWNWARD BEFORE OF THE REST OF THE ASOSSSSES. HOWEVER...THE SFC RIDGE IS MOVING IN AND WE STILL HAVE 6 HRS BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS DIRECTLY THIS MORNING...THE SKY SHOULD BE CLEAR...BUT THE WINDS DO TURN TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL GRAZE THE NORTHWEST. 8H TEMPS GO UP ABOUT 10C THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MAXES WILL BE CLOSE TO 70F IN THE SW/SC VALLEYS AND EVEN CLOSE TO 60F IN THE NORTH. THESE WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUES. 8H TEMPS AROUND 13C SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA...DRAGGING A LOW WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG RANGE MODELS...AS ALL HAVE SIMILAR TIMING POSITION AND STRENGTH. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY...THOUGH AS IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED...HEAVY PRECIPITATION ISN/T LIKELY. HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH TIME...SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE FRONTS WAKE...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SHOULD BE RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE HUDSON BAY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. A SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE COULD RIPPLE OVER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST...ADVECTING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...AND IF COUPLED WITH ANY LAKE MOISTURE...COULD BRING OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THERE IS STILL GREAT UNCERTAINTY...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY IN TIMING AND IN TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. EXPECT THAT SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD NEXT SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND SKC WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AIRSPACE. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO 210-240 MONDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FROPA IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY APPROX 06-18Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED/BRIEF SIG WX IMPACTS AND RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND WX. SOME ISOLD TS/LTG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS. POST FRONTAL LOW CIGS AND LAKE EFFECT SHWRS APPEAR LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS BFD AND JST. OUTLOOK... TUE NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS/-SHRA AND AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. WED...BRIEF MVFR AND SCT SHOWERS PSBL E IN AM...THEN VFR. LOW CIGS AND SCT -SHRASN NW. THUR...NO SIG WX. FRI...SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH AREAS OF MVFR...THEN COLDER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ026>028-035- 036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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