Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 282005 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 405 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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850 MB COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE LOWER SUSQ AND IS EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE COMMONWEALTH AT MID AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CHC OF SHOWERS SPROUTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF MY AREA. STILL...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID 60S AT THIS HOUR...AND BOUNDARY NEARBY...WILL KEEP ISOLD TO SCT POPS INTO THIS EVENING...AND AS THE FRONT STALLS TONIGHT WILL KEEP SLGT CHC MENTIONS OVER THE SRN TIER THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS FALL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING 5H RIDGE TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NJ BY 12Z FRI. RETURN FLOW ALREADY SETTING UP EARLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING PW ON THE DOORSTEP OVER THE WV/MD PANHANDLES HEADING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW THE HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...SUPPORTING SCATTERED DIURNAL PM CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH UPPER LVL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWARD DRIFTING ...PULSE-TYPE TSRA WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SVR WX. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE L80S MOST PLACES...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM AVG ACROSS WARREN CO DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SSE FLOW. BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RING OF FIRE...AND OVER ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES FRI AFTN. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF FRI NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIR AND SUMMERLIKE WITH HIGH DWPTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S. MED RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNALS A CONTINUATION OF SUMMERLIKE WX INTO SATURDAY...WITH 12Z GEFS SHOWING ANOMALOUS 500MB HGTS AND SFC PRES OFF THE E COAST. HOWEVER AS SATURDAY CONTINUES THE HIGH WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE A FAIRLY STRONG BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE LARGER MODEL TIMING DIFFS HAVE BEEN RESOLVED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW PUSHING COLD FRONT THRU SUN MORNING. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA AND A LIKELIHOOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW/PWATS INDICATED IN 12Z GEFS OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN SFC HIGH OVR NEW ENG AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION SUN-MON..PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN SUN-MON..12Z GEFS MEAN QPF BTWN SUN-MON RANGES FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCHES. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE POOL SHIFTING IT SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON. THIS HOWEVER COMES IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER EASTERN CANADA. HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. IMPROVING CONDS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO PA.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSTM THREAT LIMITED TO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ROUTES. DIFFUSE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KMDT AND KLNS AIRFIELDS. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI WITH ISOLD AFTN SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. ISOLD AFTERNOON TSTMS. SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD FROPA. SUN-TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...DEVOIR

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