Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 271422 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1022 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BRINGING DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THE CWA IS PRETTY MUCH CUT IN HALF CLOUD-COVER-WISE WITH CLEAR SKIES FROM ABOUT I-80 NORTHWARD WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE MAINLY CLOUDY...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM FULTON COUNTY EASTWARD. SATELLITE LOOP SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS COULD HANG PRETTY TOUGH OVER THE SOUTH WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS RACING EAST AND DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CONDITIONS BY FAR WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OOZES DOWN OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO THE CANADIAN HIGH NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... LOWEST PWAT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CURRENT DRY/COOL AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO PENN TONIGHT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM LESS THAN 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE NE...TO SLIGHTLY OVER 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL YIELD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS JUST AS CHILLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHEN LOWS IN THE L-M 30S WILL BE COMMON. THE RELATIVELY THICKER CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE TODAY. A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM. MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. . OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL- ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE COMBINING WITH SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF A COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FLOW. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OVERNIGHT AND LINGER POSS INTO THE AFTERNOON ON WED BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND LIKELY RESTRICTIONS. OUTLOOK... WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY. SAT...FAIR. SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...RXR

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