Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 150856 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 456 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW...RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A SLUSHY COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... TEMPS DROPPING NEAR FREEZING IN FAR WESTERN PA AND WRN NY STATE. FRONT APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TOP OF KPIT AT 0430 EDT. A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS NOW APPARENT ON THE RADAR...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. INCREASING COVERAGE OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY PUT RAINFALL INTO THE 0.50 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE TODAY...CLOSE TO 03Z SREF MEANS. GFS TOP END APPEARS TOO HIGH AND MAY BE DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER...THE SRLY FLOW CAN EASILY PUT DOWN MORE IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE POCONOS/NERN MTS. NEVERLESS...THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA/SUSQ VALLEY. 3 HR FFG IS IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. SO THE RAIN SHOULD BE HANDLED WITHOUT ANY MORE THAN SOME NUISANCE FLOODING - AND MAINLY IN THE URBAN AREAS. WITHOUT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR MORE THAN NUISANCE FLOODING...HAVE CHOSEN TO NOT POST A FLOOD WATCH AFTER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THE SNOW CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE JUST W OF KCAK/KHZY OVER NRN OH. HOWEVER...THE RAPID COOLING TO THE W OF THE FRONT COULD MAKE THE CHANGE OVER OCCUR IN WARREN COUNTY BY SUNRISE. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND TURN TO SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND TEMPS TAKE A FEW HOURS TO COOL IN/BELOW THE CLOUDS. THE CHANGE WILL MARCH SLOWLY TO THE EAST...BUT THE HILL TOPS WILL LIKELY CHANGE FASTER THAN THE VALLEYS. WILL STILL PLACE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS FOR A SLUSHY WET ACCUM IN THE GRASSY SPOTS - BUT TRUE MID APRIL SUN ANGLE/RADIATION IS TOUGH TO OVERCOME TO MAKE IT REALLY STICK ON THE ROADS. SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON THE ROADS...BUT RECENT WARM WEATHER AND MILD GROUND TEMPS SHOULD HELP MAKE TRAVEL ONLY SLIGHTLY INCONVENIENT. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST TODAY AS THE FRONT NEARS AND INTERACTS WITH HIGH MSTR PULLED NORTHWARD ON AN INCREASING SRLY FLOW. THE LL JET INCREASES TO 55-60KTS BY MID DAY. IT THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDER BY LATE AFTN. GUSTS WILL BE 20-25 OVER MOST PLACES TODAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DEEP MIXING AND HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE IN THE SE - BUT IT SEEMS PRETTY CLOUDY TO GET TOO UNSTABLE. && .SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE FRONT USHERS IN DRIER AIR AS WELL...AND PRECIP SHOULD DRY UP LATE THIS AFTN IN THE CENTRAL/WEST AND BY SUNSET IN THE EAST. UPPER LOW IS FILLING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OF COURSE LINGER OFF LAKE ERIE AND OVER THE NRN MTS EARLY TONIGHT. BUT THE CLEARING AND SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE 20S. EVEN THE SE WILL GET INT THE M20S - EVEN WITH A 10-15KT NWRLY WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE ZONES WHICH HAVE JUST PASSED THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN DATE OF LAST SPRING FREEZE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH THE GROWING SEASON STARTING ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 15TH FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY...HAVE COORDINATED WITH LWX/PHI ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONCERN IS FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES /25-30F/ ADVERSELY IMPACTING EARLY-BLOOMING/SENSITIVE VEGETATION. IT IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS..BUT NONETHELESS PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT EARLY-SEASON PLANTS AND CROPS. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE FOR WED NGT INTO EARLY THURS...IN A MORE TYPICAL FROST/FREEZE REGIME WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT/VRB WINDS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND STRENGTHEN TO +3-4SD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SET UP AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MARITIME REGIME POSSIBLY ADVECTING LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN/DZ INTO THE SERN ZONES. MORE UNSETTLED WX APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS -10 TO -15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MILDER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW READINGS TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS THURS-MON...BUT LKLY STILL AVG BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MUCH OF THE AREA DRY WITH MID LVL CLDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER PATCH OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH. MAIN ISSUE IS LLWS ACROSS THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE PROBLEM LATER THIS AFT WILL BE SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN. 06Z TAFS SENT. MORE DETAISL AND EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS PA OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHRA CONTINUING TO AFFECT CENTRAL PA. LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN HAS ARRIVED SHOULD SEE CIGS FALL INTO MVFR/IFR RANGE. LLWS WAS ADDED TO THE EASTERN TAF SITES AS A DECENT 50-60KT LOW- LEVEL JET ARRIVES TUES MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AT WESTERN AIRFIELDS /KJST KBFD/...AND BY EARLY AFTN IN THE EAST /KIPT KMDT KLNS/. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING SHRA TO CHANGEOVER TO SHSN FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY SAT. OUTLOOK... .TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS...ENDING AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS. .WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR. .SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO

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