Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 060220 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1020 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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LATE EVENING SATL AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW UPPER LOW LIFTING NE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NR KHTS. MUCH OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WAS DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND IS DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN PA. WILL CARRY LOW CHC OF SHOWERS THRU 06Z ACROSS ONLY SOMERSET/BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES. SITUATION CHANGES TOWARD DAWN...AS LL JET AND ASSOC PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST PA. WILL RAMP POPS UPWARD TO ARND 75 PCT BTWN 06Z-12Z ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE TN VALLEY UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE OPENING UP AND SLIDING INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASING CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH RISING DWPTS...WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S...TO NR 70F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/OPEN UP AS IT SWINGS INTO THE REGION MONDAY. DIMINISHING LG SCALE FORCING OCCURRING DURING AM CONVECTIVE MINIMUM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DWINDLING AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...REMNANT SOUTHERLY LL JET AND ASSOC PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL LIE OVR THE AREA. MODEST HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS PM SHRA/TSRA. CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD SREF AND GEFS POPS...WHICH SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS OVR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. MDL BLENDED QPF OF A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ON AVERAGE SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS IMPLY LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND 1HR FFG VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH OVR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...WILL INTRODUCE MENTION OF LOCAL FLOODING IN THE HWO. BEST CHC OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE MDL INSTABILITY THE GREATEST. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND PRACTICALLY NON-EXISTENT DCAPE DUE TO LACK OF MID LVL DRY AIR SIGNALS A LOW CHC OF SVR WEATHER. MCLDY SKIES AND NUMEROUS PM SHRA/TSRA SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES TO BTWN 75-80F OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...DWPTS PROGGED TO CREEP INTO THE UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE BTWN 65-70F.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S. UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF JST...IN WV AND MD...BUT LEFT THEM OUT OF THE JST TAF ON THE 21Z TAF UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FOR 00Z TAFS...MAIN SITES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BE JST AND AOO. MAIN THING OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO REACH IPT...MDT...AND LNS. YESTERDAY IT LOOKED LIKE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUE WOULD BE WET. NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS INTO THE AIRSPACE STARTING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OUTLOOK... TUE...CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WED...MOST AREAS DRY...BUT STILL SOME RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY NEAR THE MD BORDER. THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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