Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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620 FXUS61 KCTP 241355 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 955 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will drift northeast from the Ohio River Valley today, and we could see a brief period of freezing rain this morning followed by a rapid warm up. The frontal boundary will sag back south to near the Mason-Dixon line by Saturday night, then remain stationary from near Cleveland...to the Baltimore/Washington area Sunday night. Mid-tropospheric heights and temperatures over the Commonwealth will be slightly above normal into next week. A few week systems should bring showers to the region, but at this time the pattern does not suggest any significant rain events. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Winter Weather Advisory focused on the near dawn timeframe for southern and central areas has been trimmed back at mid morning. Still some near 32F sfc temps over the far northeast, where Advisory remains in effect through 15z. Main area of showers spreads east of my area by midday. A very rapid warm up ensues from late this morning through mid afternoon with some 20-30F temperatures rises. Winter will have exited stage East and it may be along time before we see any significantly cold weather again. High temperatures should range mainly from the 50 to the lower 60s. Warmest in the south/southwest. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Warm front remains north of the region tonight...bringing a fair and mild Friday night. Lows into Saturday should range from the upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... At the outset of the longer term period the models are in fair agreement in timing and strength. All are indicating a boundary just to the north of Pennsylvania with a large upper level low moving through the central midwest. A negatively tilted ridge over the mid Atlantic will allow for stable but cloudy weather into Saturday. There could be light rain showers on Saturday but warm and stable. A cooler moist boundary should move into the region Sunday out ahead of the approaching low. Have adjusted POPs for timing and intensity. QPF remains variable but possible wet period Sunday into Monday. Above average temperatures are expected over the weekend with the warmest day likely on Saturday with some sites approaching 70F over southern PA. Sunday should be markedly cooler behind a backdoor cold front and a likelihood of rain. However, above average temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely through early next week, as 12Z GEFS indicates Pa remains beneath a mean upper level ridge and plume of anomalous PWATs. The chance of showers will spike with passage of next shortwave Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR/MVFR conditions this morning with period of rain possibly mixed with sleet 12-15z. Removed FZRA with TAF site temps above 32F. All rain ptypes after 15z. A strong low level jet from 230-260 degrees will produce LLWS thru mid morning. The precip exits the airspace to the east by 18z leaving behind VFR/MVFR cigs through tonight. Overall, trended the 24/12z TAFs to the optimistic side vs. the tabular guidance with some risk for IFR at KBFD. Outlook... Sat...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain northern 1/2 airspace. Sun-Tue...Sub-VFR with periods of rain. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for PAZ006-012-037-041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Grumm/Lambert NEAR TERM...Grumm/DeVoir/Lambert SHORT TERM...Grumm/Lambert LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru AVIATION...Steinbugl

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