Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 221528 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1128 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
The seasonably cool and wet weather pattern will continue into tonight, with improving conditions expected Monday into Tuesday. A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from mid week into the holiday weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Late morning radar and satellite trends are showing little to no change in the cool/cloudy/wet pattern over central PA. The latest HRRR and 22/00z NCAR ensemble depict the current deformation/fgen rain shield pivoting slowly southward into tonight with virtually no hope of improvement east of the Allegheny crest. There is still an outside risk for low-topped instability showers over the far northwest zones this afternoon with breaks in the clouds. HIRES model blend, which has performed quite well in simulating the pcpn pattern, favored increasing POPs early tonight over the south-central zones before a gradual north to south drying trend occurs after midnight into early Monday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... The growing expanse of the upper level cyclonic flow will help support weak large scale ascent. This along with cold air aloft will help erode stability during the time of max heating with model derived mid level lapse rates on the order of 6-7C/km. It will equate to showers and scattered thunderstorms becoming more numerous in the late morning and afternoon hours. Highs Monday will rebound into the 70s which will still be a little below normal in many areas, but definitely better than we have been experiencing the last couple of days. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended is advertising the development of a western trough and an eastern ridge by the middle of the upcoming week, finally signaling the arrival of summer-like temperatures and like it or not, humidity. Evolution of the slowly filling and lifting out upper low will be the focus early in the period and will keep the mention of a shower possible over eastern areas even into Tuesday. But by mid week the low will have given way to the first real surge in the subtropical ridge of the season with the NAEFS advertising above normal heights and temperatures from Wednesday right through the Memorial Day weekend. The broad wsw flow will also mean that remnant convection from Midwestern MCS activity will become a threat as it slides toward the nern U.S.. Timing at this range is impossible, but I`d expect the activity to be mainly diurnally driven, tending to fade during the evening and overnight. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For the 22/12z TAFs through 23/12z | Issued 1110am EDT 5/22/16 Recent observational trends indicate improving ceilings late this morning with persistent/nearly stationary band of light rain continuing over the southeast 3/4 of the airspace. With surface winds from 330-30 degrees and ceilings trending to the upside, feel that IFR will be on the decline in coverage through the afternoon hours with flight cats likely remaining VFR to MVFR at worst. There is still a low probability for isolated low-topped showers/tstms to develop over the far wrn airspace this afternoon or west of a line from JST-BFD. A gradual north to south drying pcpn trend should occur from late tonight into Monday although sub-VFR cigs may return to the southern 1/2 of the airspace. OUTLOOK...Monday-Thursday 5/23-5/26 Mon...Areas of IFR/MVFR cigs early southern 1/2. Sct showers with isold tsra impacts possible sern 1/2 18-24z. Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected. Thu...Slight chance of P.M. showers/tstms wrn 1/2.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Steinbugl

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.