Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200411 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1211 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and slightly drier air is moving in for a couple of days. An upper level trough will approach the region later this week and bring showers and thunderstorms back to the state. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Short wave trough moving overhead is producing some showers which are surviving surprisingly farther to the east than expected. Only a brief downpour is expected in most places as this line crosses the central mtns. Otherwise, just some --RA falling from what seems to be a deformation zone over the SErn cos. Overall, it should continue to dry out across much of the area - except the far northern tier of counties. Mins won`t be all that cool and air not all that dry with dewpoints not expected to drop all that much overnight. Some patchy fog is expected, but some wind should keep a widespread fog from forming. It might be more along the lines of low stratus if a low-level moisture layer does form. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Noticeably cooler in central and eastern areas. Temperatures should run a bit below normal. Unstable aloft could triggers some showers, mainly in the mountains of western and northwestern PA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Not a lot of change from recent days. Still looks like a strong push of warm and humid air for later Thursday into Friday. Other than early Wed, the next chance of a few hours of dry weather will likely be Saturday, as the cold front drops just to the south of PA. Hard to push cold fronts much further south now, as we head into summer. EC and other models show a rather strong low for late June tracking across the Great Lakes on Sunday. Another round of showers and storms. Rather strong cold advection for next Monday. Will have to watch the Golf of Mexico to see if moisture will be pulled northward later in the week ahead of any of the fast moving lows tracking across the lakes. Overall just minor changes made to the extended package. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Any thunder has faded, though flow has shifted and light rain should continue for most TAF sites for the next few hours. Expect periods of showers through 08Z. LNS has already dropped to IFR cigs, expect that trend to continue for MDT as well. The low dewpoint depressions and calming winds at BFD and IPT should allow for IFR vsbys along with CIGS as well. The rainfall should further the likelihood of IFR cigs at JST and MVFR to IFR cigs at UNV and AOO. Restrictions should improve by late morning and then should be VFR on Tuesday with some scattered showers in the mountains from KJST to KBFD in the afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Tue...Sct SHRA...mainly NW. Wed...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. Thu...Sct SHRA and storms...mainly N. Fri...Sct showers and thunderstorms. Sat...Mainly VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Grumm/La Corte LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Ceru/Martin

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