Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 052204 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 604 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SATL AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW UPPER LOW OVR EASTERN KY EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE IS DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN PA LATER THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW CHC OF SHOWERS THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS ONLY SOMERSET/BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES. SITUATION CHANGES LATE TONIGHT...AS LL JET AND ASSOC PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST PA. WILL RAMP POPS UPWARD TO NR 70 PCT BTWN 06Z-12Z ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE TN VALLEY UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE OPENING UP AND SLIDING INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASING CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH RISING DWPTS...WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...TO NR 70F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SWING INTO THE REGION MONDAY. PWATS WILL INCREASE AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. ENSEMBLES SHOW A 20-35 KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH FOR JULY REGISTERS AS SOME 1-3 STD DEG ABOVE NORMAL. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY. I LEANED CLOSER TO SREF AND GEFS POPS WHICH HAVE THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOST AREAS GETTING WET DURING THE DAY. QPF OF A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ON AVERAGE SEEMS REASONABLE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S. UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT. TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF JST...IN WV AND MD...BUT LEFT THEM OUT OF THE JST TAF ON THE 21Z TAF UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. 12Z TAFS SENT. ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS INTO THE AIRSPACE STARTING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OUTLOOK... WED-FRO...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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