Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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697 FXUS61 KCTP 041540 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1040 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1030 AM UPDATE... ALL ADVYS GONE BUT SOME WATERWAYS STILL RUNNING A BIT HIGH. NO NEW PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO. TEMPS SHOULD MILD-UP ACROSS THE ERN THIRD WITH DOWNSLOPE. BUT THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE FAR SERN COS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE COOLER THAN GOING FCST NUMS. JUST SHAVED A DEG OFF THERE BUT THAT/S ALL THAT IS EVEN CLOSE TO WORTH MENTIONING AS FAR AS TWEAKS TO GOING FCST. PREV... WE/VE BEEN WHITTLING AWAY AT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND WRN POCONOS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINING FOR JUST SEVERAL FAR SE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z. THE CFRONT WILL SLOW AS IT DRIFTS JUST EAST OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY TODAY THANKS TO A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND SLIGHTLY BACKING MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW. DRYING AND COOLING AT LLVLS BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO BREAKS IN THE STRATO CU DECK...WHILE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE FAR SE ZONES TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE INITIALLY...RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS /WITH THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 4KFT AGL ACROSS THE WRN MTNS/ WILL SUPPORT JUST SOME FLURRIES OR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY FROM KJST NORTH THROUGH KDUJ TO KBFD...WHILE THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION SEES PARTLY TO OCNLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AUTOMATED GAGES SHOW THAT MOST SMALL STREAMS HAVE CRESTED OVER THE PAST FEW-SEVERAL HOURS AND ARE NOW FALLING AT A RATHER QUICK PACE. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED A FEW HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...A FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BEFOREHAND TO COVER THE MINOR IMPACT OF SOME WATER PONDING FROM RAINFALL/SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND POSSIBLY SOME WATER SPILLING ONTO SECONDARY ROADS ADJACENT TO SMALL STREAMS. THIS ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 13Z TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING FROM 33 TO 35 ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. MORNING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL REBOUND BY JUST A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F...AND INTO THE MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND DEEPENING COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS AND THEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND BEST ENERGY WILL LEAD TO SCT SHSN DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS VIA UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LAURELS. MOST PLACES THAT SEE AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR LESS. MAYBE TWO OR THREE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELT OF NWRN WARREN CO. THE OTHER MINOR SNOW IMPACT COULD OCCUR ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE PRIMARY COMMUTING HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HELPS TO FORM A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC...WHILE MAINTAINING A THICK SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SERN PENN AND PARTS OF THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY AND WRN POCONOS. INCLUDED THE MENTION OF CHC LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY LANCASTER AND YORK...WHERE A COATING TO ONE INCH OF ACCUM IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE BULK OF THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...VARIABLE AMTS OF STRATO CU WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE FOUND DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN A FEW SPOTS TO BLOW OFF YOUR VEHICLE OR SWEEP OFF THE SIDEWALKS AND DRIVEWAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 20F OVER THE NORTHWEST MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE SE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MID-WINTER READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS YOU PROCEED SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ZONAL/SLIGHT SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SKIRTS THE NEW YORK...PA BORDER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE THE TREND INTO NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT CHUNKS OF ENERGY ALOFT DIVE SE AND HELP TO CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NO CHANGES NECESSARY WITH 15Z PKG OTHER THAN A TWEAK OR TWO TO THE WINDS. INTERESTING TO SEE THE VFR CIG AT JST - BUT FEEL THAT WON/T LAST VERY LONG WITH MANY UPSTREAM CIGS AOB 3KFT. PREV... 12Z TAFS SENT. FOG OUT MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 630 AM. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST AS NEEDED. TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...TOO MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. PERHAPS A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT. FRI LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET WX DAY FOR FLYING AS HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE OHIO VALLEY. AN EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN ISOLD SHSN OVER THE WRN TERMINALS THUR NIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRI-MON...NO SIG WX.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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AN ICE JAM BELOW MARIETTA IS CAUSING A RISE AT THE GAGE BUT THE LEVELS ARE SO LOW THAT NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. FLOWS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY...SO THE OVERALL FORECASTS ARE LOWER THAN PREVS. STILL NO WORRIES ON THE HYDRO FRONT.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...DANGELO/RXR HYDROLOGY...

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