Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCTP 241355
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
955 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
A warm front will drift northeast from the Ohio River Valley
today, and we could see a brief period of freezing rain this
morning followed by a rapid warm up. The frontal boundary will
sag back south to near the Mason-Dixon line by Saturday night,
then remain stationary from near Cleveland...to the
Baltimore/Washington area Sunday night. Mid-tropospheric heights
and temperatures over the Commonwealth will be slightly above
normal into next week. A few week systems should bring showers
to the region, but at this time the pattern does not suggest any
significant rain events.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Winter Weather Advisory focused on the near dawn timeframe for
southern and central areas has been trimmed back at mid morning.
Still some near 32F sfc temps over the far northeast, where
Advisory remains in effect through 15z. Main area of showers
spreads east of my area by midday.
A very rapid warm up ensues from late this morning through mid
afternoon with some 20-30F temperatures rises. Winter will have
exited stage East and it may be along time before we see any
significantly cold weather again.
High temperatures should range mainly from the 50 to the lower
60s. Warmest in the south/southwest.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Warm front remains north of the region tonight...bringing a fair
and mild Friday night. Lows into Saturday should range from the
upper 40s to low 50s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At the outset of the longer term period the models are in fair
agreement in timing and strength. All are indicating a boundary
just to the north of Pennsylvania with a large upper level low
moving through the central midwest. A negatively tilted ridge
over the mid Atlantic will allow for stable but cloudy weather
into Saturday. There could be light rain showers on Saturday
but warm and stable. A cooler moist boundary should move into
the region Sunday out ahead of the approaching low. Have
adjusted POPs for timing and intensity. QPF remains variable but
possible wet period Sunday into Monday.
Above average temperatures are expected over the weekend with
the warmest day likely on Saturday with some sites approaching
70F over southern PA. Sunday should be markedly cooler behind
a backdoor cold front and a likelihood of rain. However, above
average temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely
through early next week, as 12Z GEFS indicates Pa remains
beneath a mean upper level ridge and plume of anomalous PWATs.
The chance of showers will spike with passage of next shortwave
Tuesday into Wednesday.
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/MVFR conditions this morning with period of rain possibly
mixed with sleet 12-15z. Removed FZRA with TAF site temps above
32F. All rain ptypes after 15z. A strong low level jet from
230-260 degrees will produce LLWS thru mid morning. The precip
exits the airspace to the east by 18z leaving behind VFR/MVFR
cigs through tonight. Overall, trended the 24/12z TAFs to the
optimistic side vs. the tabular guidance with some risk for IFR
Sat...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain northern 1/2 airspace.
Sun-Tue...Sub-VFR with periods of rain.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for