Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 271959 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 359 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY LASTING INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL WILL BE FAIR BUT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE OVER THE NORTH THERE IS NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY. THIS EAST-WEST BAND OF CLOUDS MIGHT MELT AWAY A BIT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF PATCHY DZ IN THE FCST ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES UNTIL 22Z...AFTER WHICH NR TERM MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING IN THE SFC-2KM LAYER. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP OVER MY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S...IT WILL BE A CHILLY RAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK WAVES WILL BRING AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND PERIODS OF COLD RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF PA GIVEN THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...OR SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP. MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS I HAVE SEEN LATELY. INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SUB VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EVEN SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER HARRISBURG...SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL NORTHERN AND MOST CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...IMPROVEMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY WITH CEILINGS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 3000` INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR. OUTLOOK... FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

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