Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260018 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 818 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track north-northeast and reach the southern New England coast by Thursday morning. This system will bring periods of rain through tonight followed by improving conditions later Wednesday as the storm lifts away from the area. A summerlike pattern is forecast later this week with temperatures likely remaining well-above normal through the end of April. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Mid Atlantic cutoff continues to direct moist southeast llvl maritime flow over PA keeping low clouds...patchy drizzle and areas of light rain over central and eastern areas late this morning. Easterly 850 mb 40-50kt jet lifting north of the Mason Dixon line currently supporting strong low/mid level MFLUX surge with PW peaking around 1.50 inches...and corresponding light to moderate rain band over the Chesapeake and nrn MD...pushing northwestward mid to late afternoon. HRRR has been consistent tracking this across my southern and central areas through the late afternoon and evening hours before dissipating over north central PA late tonight. Widespread quarter to half inch amounts expected in these areas. Late tonight...aforementioned anomalous jet and will move north and east of the region...respectively. This will bring decreasing showers to central areas...while POPs remain highest over the east in best LLVL maritime flow. Still expect areas of light rain and drizzle into the central mountains through 12z Wed. Mins will drop only 3 to 6F from current readings across central and southern areas...while the north will drop to the upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A very low chance for rain will linger Wednesday morning through midday over the far eastern part of the CWA. Main story for Wed. will be improving conditions by afternoon with increasing sunshine (west- to- east) and the start of a significant warming trend that should last well beyond the short term period. Highs Wednesday afternoon should warm into the lower to middle 70s in many areas...with mid to upper 60s in the cooler eastern valleys which will remain murky for much of the day thanks to morning low clouds and lingering drizzle or shower spritzes. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A mild southerly flow in advance of an approaching cold front will help boost temps +10 to +20 degrees above late April climo by Thursday, as much of the daytime hours remain dry under thickening clouds. Models shows the front lifting through the area Thursday night accompanied by scattered to numerous showers (as the parent low remains to our west and lifts across the Great Lakes). Precip probs increase to around 60% over NW half of CWA by Thu eve, and taper to scattered elsewhere. Though the cold frontal boundary stalls across the region, high pressure will keep things dry and warm on Fri. From Fri night into Sunday things look to remain mild but become somewhat unsettled with the medium range model guidance generating periods of showers mainly across the NW portion of the CWA. The placement and especially timing of these showers is difficult to resolve at this stage with subtle waves rippling out ahead of a system in the southern Plains - and therefore stayed close to NBM/ECENS/WPC blend for POPS and remaining in the chance category. While confidence is high in above normal temperatures, the question is how warm with frontal boundaries, cloud cover and risk for pcpn all contributing to potential bust scenario on the high side, and latest guidance tapers temps back just a bit. There remains a pretty strong consensus for the greatest risk for widespread showers/tstorms on Monday May 1st associated with a rather strong cold front and nice moisture/jet structure crossing the Appalachians. Temperatures will trend closer to seasonal averages behind the front by next Tuesday May 2nd. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Low pressure lifting up the east coast will bring lowering clouds and spotty light rain to central PA this evening. IFR CIGs already observed at JST/AOO at 00Z and model soundings/SREF prob charts support IFR conditions across all but IPT by late this evening. Early low CIGs/drizzle will give way to improving conditions Wednesday, as the storm system weakens and passes east of the state. Model RH profile support VFR conditions at BFD/JST by midday, while more gradual clearing takes place across the eastern half of the state during the afternoon. Outlook... Thu...AM fog possible. Isolated PM tsra impacts possible west. Fri...No sig wx expected. Sat...Rain/low CIGs possible NW Mtns. Isolated tsra impacts possible southeast. Sun...Low CIGs possible east. Isolated PM tsra impacts possible west.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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