Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 150641 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 241 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will drop southward across the state this morning and early afternoon. However, unseasonably mild conditions will last into the weekend. Another cold front will usher in a change in airmass for Sunday. But, the temperatures will only gradually become colder each day through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Rain and thunderstorms have passed through much of the area and are dropping into MD. There are still a few, isolated, showers N of I-80, dropping southward as well. The winds have been erratic as the main batch of showers and thunderstorms moved across the srn tier with some gusts near 40-45 MPH. This cluster of showers/storms have been weakening over the past 30-40 mins with no ltg on the plots at 02Z. Expect further weakening on the whole for the rest of the night. The cold front seems to be N of BFD but perhaps through/S of ERI. The front should continue dropping south this morning, reaching the office about sunrise, and the MD border just after noon. The LLJet is very strong with 60+KT wrly winds only 2-3kft off the ground all over the area right now, and stying that way thru noon in the S. The high stability should continue to make it difficult for gusts of that magnitude to reach the sfc. However, we`ve seen meager showers make the 35+KT gusts already. Despite the passage and added forcing/focus of the front, the meso models paint a very sparsely covered radar scope for the morning over the srn half of the CWA. Have kept some higher PoPs for now, seeing how fast the showers/storms are moving and should be able to spread the rain out well. Temps will stay mild for the Ides of March, but not nearly as mild as the last few days, esp in the N under CAA there. Maxes (near or even slightly under 50F) occur early morning in the N, and may fall all day long. A non- diurnal trend will occur in the central counties, too, where maxes should be in the mid-day and waggle with a few degrees of that value for the rest of the day. The S will have the most- normal time of peak temp, but also may hit their max in the early aftn and become steady until late aftn. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Drying in the aftn and evening and a 7-10MPH wind thru the night should keep too much fog from occurring tonight. But, some fog in the valleys is possible, mainly in the central and south, since a typical patch of broken low clouds due to CAA over the Alleghenies should keep fog at bay there. Clearing in the SErn half of the area will help take mins into the 30s everywhere. Have nudged T`s down a bit from prev fcsts there. Saturday looks like a winner - in between cold fronts. Temps should get back into the 60-62F range in the SE, and 50s elsewhere, but just barely for the nrn mtns. The WSW wind will pick up in the aftn, esp in the NW half of the CWA. The front should make at least a thin line of showers along it, and make just a tenth or two of rain as it drops across the NW half Sat night. The front won`t be carrying that much mstr with it, and the showers will break up/end for the most part as it gets past the spine of the Appalachians in the late night or very early daytime. The air will be 5-8F colder on Sun than Sat - with maxes about normal in the NW, but still a little milder than normal for St Patrick`s Day parades. As any leftover showers go thru the S and linger in the NW, you may see a rainbow if you look to the west (morning rainbows are more-rare than evening bows), but that`s a tough call to make this far away. Might have to see the radar on Sun morning to give yourself the best chance at finding the pot of gold. Of course, this forecast is gold, but not quite bitcoin.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Noticeably cooler, near seasonal temps, appear likely Sunday/Sun night. The bulk of medium range guidance then tracks a potent upper level shortwave and cold front through the region Monday. A round of snow showers/squalls could accompany the passage of this feature Monday. Strong large scale forcing, steep lower tropospheric lapse rates and even some cape are evident in some models with the fropa, signaling a potential of squalls. Below normal temperatures and lake effect snow showers appear likely Tue/Wed, as upper level troughing and a cold northwest flow over the Grt Lks remains in place. Fair weather and moderating temperatures appear likely by next Thursday, as the upper trough begins to lift out. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rain continues to linger in western and southern PA as remnants from the convection that occurred across Indiana and Ohio earlier. A few rumbles of thunder are still possible with these as weak elevated instability is present. These storms will continue to push south east throughout the night. Ceilings will likely lower to MVFR across most of the area as the night progresses, with IFR ceilings seeming most likely at BFD. The exception will be across the Lower Susquehanna Valley where the HREF/SREF suggest only a 20% chance of MVFR ceilings developing. Any heavier rain showers that occur will have the potential to reduce visibilities. Outside of any convection, LLWS will impact Central PA through the overnight hours as an 850mb LLJ passes overhead increasing winds above the surface. The magnitude of shear could reach as high as 55kts in some spots. Showers will continue throughout the day Friday before gradually dissipating in the late afternoon. As they decrease in coverage, ceilings will improve to VFR for all areas except across the northwest where ceilings may be stubborn to rise. Outlook... Sat...Breezy, MVFR cigs poss NW. Sun...Rain showers with MVFR cigs NW half. Some snow could mix in during the late afternoon across the northwest, Mon...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front with rain showers possible across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Tue...Snow showers mainly west of the Allegheny Front. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins on Tuesday March 19 at 11:06 PM EDT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen CLIMATE...Steinbugl

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