Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 210819 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 419 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered rain showers early this morning will give way to seasonably mild conditions for the first full day of Spring. Cold air will plunge back into the area Tuesday night through Wednesday before retreating during the second half of the week. A period of snow or ice is possible ahead of the returning warm air later in the week. A milder pattern will persist through the weekend with opportunities for rain into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Updated POPs prior to 12z with scattered rain showers across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Rain ends by mid morning giving way to a mainly dry and seasonably mild day with highs in the 45-55F degree range. Secondary/arctic cold front pushing southeast across the Lower Great Lakes this evening will traverse the area overnight into early Wednesday morning. Noticeably colder air will follow with temperatures falling into the teens and 20s by 22/12z. Gusty winds will add to the chill with apparent temps in the single digits and teens. Some snow showers/flurries are also possible as strong CAA spills downwind of the lakes but short northerly fetch and dry air should limit any accumulation to a brief coating over Northern Alleghenies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Brisk and cold conditions on Wednesday could be the coldest air we see until fall. High temps will be -15 to -25 degrees below average for late March, but record low maxes do not appear to be in jeopardy. Lingering snow showers or flurries in the morning should taper off by the afternoon. 1040mb high pressure builds over the area Wed night, setting up a pretty cold night for this time of year. Favorable radiational cooling and dewpoints in the single digits and teens should be a good proxy for minimum temps with single digit lows over the northern tier. Would not rule out a few of the usual cold spots dropping into negative territory. WAA pattern quickly follows what could be winter`s last gasp with moderating temperatures into the second half of the week. Models indicate risk for snow/ice mix ahead of the warm air as pcpn spreads into retreating shallow cold layer near the surface Thursday night-AM Friday. Max POPs are over the NW 1/3 of the area based on a multi-model consensus blend but ZR risk extends into the interior zones based on WPC probabilistic winter pcpn guidance.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Risk for mix/ZR continues Friday morning before temperatures warm above freezing. Models continue to show the warm front lifting north into NY by Friday night, becoming quasi-stationary and setting up a west-east oriented baroclinic zone. Location of this boundary will be key as it will be a focus for pcpn into the weekend. Models and ensembles are in decent agreement with the general synoptic pattern evolution across the CONUS with a series of upper troughs moving into the Southwest U.S. and losing amplitude as they eject/dampen out downstream across the Central Plains and east of the MS River. The lead wave and associated frontal system is progged to reach the area by Sunday which coincides with max POPs based on NBM/WPC/ECENS blend. Above average temperatures are expected over the weekend with the warmest day likely on Saturday with some sites approaching 70F over southern PA. Sunday should also be mild but a bit cooler due to likelihood of rain. Operational EC/GFS/CMC are somewhat at odds early next week with EC/CMC more bullish than GFS with shallow cool air to seeping southward east of the Appalachians.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will track south of Pa early today, spreading scattered rain showers and falling CIGS across the region. Latest HRRR and 20/21Z SREF probability charts suggest IFR conditions are possible between 10Z-14Z at JST/BFD, MVFR conditions are likely at UNV/AOO and perhaps no sig reductions at the lower elevations airfields of eastern Pa, including IPT/MDT/LNS. Any showers should push east of the region around 12Z, as the low pressure system passes off the Mid Atlantic Coast. However, residual low level moisture ascending the Allegheny Mountains could create lingering MVFR stratocu at BFD/JST into early THIS afternoon. The arrival of high pressure and drier air should result in widespread VFR conditions by late in the day, even at BFD/JST. Outlook... Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected. Fri-Sat...Showers/reduced CIGS possible, mainly BFD. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Lambert

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