Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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360 FXUS61 KCTP 251834 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 234 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large area of high pressure over the area will result in another cool night across the Keystone state. Low pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes on Monday, and push a cold front through the region by Tuesday morning. The forecast becomes less certain for the rest of the week as a cut off low forms over the eastern United States. Cooler and at times wet weather will prevail for the later part of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Been watching an area of clouds over VA. Time of day and strong heating has push the leading edge of the clouds away from south central PA. A fine early fall evening will prevail outside.
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&& .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Expect some clouds to edge back north from VA late tonight into Monday. A rather cool airmass is at low levels, and given timing, hard to see a large rise in temperatures on Monday, even with 850 mb temperaatures still on the warm side. Thus did lower max temperatures a little. SPC has MRGL outlook for the far west on Monday. This looks ok. While more heating will be likely to the east, it will be less unstable. Did adjust pop and weather groups some. Not looking at a lot of rain, but expect some across most of the area.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Will linger only chc POPs in the far SE on Tuesday as a buffer of uncertainty of speed of fropa. Temps should stay very near normal for the balance of the week. Any lake effect showers under the cool pocket behind this front are being kept to the north of the CWA. A bit of intrigue has entered the forecast for the rest of the week, as a previously possible cut-off upper level low is looking more likely in these latest prognostic runs. Thus, what may have been yet another dry period could turn cooler and wetter - or at least cloudier in the latter half of the period. But, the formation of cut- offs and their positions/decay/longevity are always in question. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Mainly clear this evening and most of tonight. Expect some clouds to work northward late tonight and Monday, given return flow and warm advection. Dewpoints fcst to rise on Monday, thus hard not to expect some clouds this time of year. Will have to monitor trends to the south and adjust fcst as needed. For now, expect showers and thunderstorms to hold off prior to 18Z Monday. A large upper level low is likely to keep a chc of showers around the area for the later part of the week. Outlook... Mon and Monday Night...PM showers/Tstms with reductions possible. Tue-Fri...A chance of showers, most of the time it should be dry.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Martin NEAR TERM...Martin SHORT TERM...Martin LONG TERM...Dangelo AVIATION...Martin

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