Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 291840 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 240 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND OFF SHORE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON THE SERLY/UPSLOPE WIND OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO GET THESE CLOUDS IS THE SC MOUNTAINS. BUT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT EXTEND ALL THAT FAR TO THE NORTH ACCORDING TO 925MB RH PROGS FROM MOST MODELS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE END OF THE PARTY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE MIDWEST AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. THE GFS/NAM PROPAGATES IT FASTER...WHERE THE EC SLOWS THE TIMING DOWN...AND HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SPURRED ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPARK ALONG A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA. THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS ROTATING LOW WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS HAS FAR MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES...WITH DEEPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH PERIODICALLY...WHERE THE EC KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AS SUCH HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF SHORE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION STARTS TONIGHT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY TO FORM AS THE SERLY FLOW GETS MORE MOIST AND IS LIFTED UPWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE PUT LESS FOG IN TONIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 50S AREA-WIDE. THE MORE-MOIST AIR AND HEATING OF THE DAY ON SAT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE EACH DAY INTO MID WEEK. OUTLOOK... SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR. WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU AVIATION...DANGELO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.