Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241958 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 358 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Mostly sunny skies with a northwest wind will persist into early this evening. Temperatures have reached into the 80s in many locations in southeastern Pennsylvania. Day 1 of many to come over the next 5-7 days. Low-level, but mainly flat fair weather cumulus abound. Radar implied perhaps a lone shower over eastern Schuylkill county but otherwise quite afternoon. This evening the winds and cumulus clouds should quickly dissipate. A good evening to be spinning about. Light winds and clear skies should provide for another cool overnight. Overnight lows mainly in the 50s and upper 40s in cooler spots of the western mountains. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday should be a near picture perfect summer day. Mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures mainly in the upper 70s to mid-80s. It will not be as cool overnight Wednesday into Thursday but should still be comfortable. But the humid will be beginning it`s steady climb. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended guidance continues to show a strong ridge over the mid Atlantic and the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This will bring the arrival of the first extended period of summer- like temperatures and humidity. By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad WSW flow aloft. Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the weekend. However the strong ridge should provide enough subsidence to keep any convection at bay Thursday and Friday. The GFS is very aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. However given the southerly flow of moisture, the warmer temperatures and the possibility of a mid level trough advecting through, Saturday should have a decent chance for some afternoon convection. The trend is for the ridge to break down late in the weekend and for cooler air to move into the region early next week. This could bring temperatures to slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Updated for 18Z package...Second verse same as the first....Mostly clear skies with west northwest winds. Some gusty winds in spots this afternoon. Winds are gusty in the west and picking up in the southeast. Winds should diminish early this evening. Should be VFR all around. There is a slight chance of some very isolated showers in extreme eastern portions of the region this afternoon. Most, if not all the showers should stay well to our east. Overnight VFR will prevail with some patch MVFR in some areas of fog in the valleys of the southeast. We are looking at a long stretch of relatively warm dry weather. OUTLOOK... Wed...No sig wx expected. Thu-Fri...Isold pm tsra impacts possible. Sat...perhaps some overnight patchy fog or haze && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Grumm SHORT TERM...Grumm LONG TERM...Ceru/RXR AVIATION...Grumm

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