Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
285 FXUS61 KCTP 282052 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 452 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUE INTO THU. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 21Z SHOWING BAND OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING THRU NORTHERN PA IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE OVR THE EASTERN GRT LKS. EXPECT RAIN TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH BY LATE THIS EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE FORCING LIFT NORTHEAST OF PA. FURTHER SOUTH...SHALLOW/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS IN AND LIKELY PRODUCE OCNL DRIZZLE WHERE THE FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. BASED ON MDL SFC-850MB RH OF NR 100 PCT....CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY NR ZERO...SO LITTLE ROOM FOR ANY COOLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BTWN 40-45F OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH THE ADDED LIFT OF A FAIRLY HEALTHY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AS WE REMAIN COOL AIR DAMMED...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR THUNDER WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY...IN THE 50S OR SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM. LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE. PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS A RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE 12Z EC NOT AS COLD ON DAY 10 AS THE 12Z EC RUN YESTERDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...GIVEN SPLIT FLOW. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE AREA OF RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FLYING AREA INTO THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.