Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 160302 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1002 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A brief cold air surge via northwest flow will promote snow showers over the Alleghenies with light to moderate snow accumulation in the Lake Erie snowbelt and higher elevations. After the coldest day of the week on Thursday, temperatures will moderate on Friday followed by a stretch of spring-like weather over the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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All is on-track. I really can`t change anything for the better. Newest NAM supports the going forecast very strongly. Will freshen up the WSW. Prev... Best moisture seems to be flowing into the Laurels, but visbys have never been all that terrible this evening. However, the long-duration and dryness/fluffiness of the snow support the forecast snow amounts. Prev... Steepest lapse rates crossing central PA early to mid afternoon with widespread snow showers and embedded isolated squalls. Surface temperatures at or above freezing across central and eastern areas...and falling into the upper 20s across the west and north as of 230 PM. Sufficient instability for the remainder of the afternoon to produce sct to nmrs SW and highly localized SW+ central and northeastern counties...with downsloping and warming leading to just flurries of little consequence it appears over the Lower Susq River Valley and temperatures in the lower 40s. NW flow regime with lake effect and upslope snow bands ramping up through tonight. Winter Weather Advisory for Somerset County in effect for favorable orographics, especially into western half of the county, for 3 to 5 inches. Lake Effect snow advisory remains in effect for Warren County where high res models cont to show accums focused across the far NW part of the county in the perennial Lake Erie snowbelt. The heaviest snow is expected overnight into Thursday morning with some longer fetch bands reaching back to the Upper Great Lakes/Huron connection. NW winds will be gusty into this evening, with some 40+ mph gusts accompanying some of the squalls. Blustery and cold conditions prevail tonight with lows in the mid teens-20s and minimum wind chills in the single digits to around 15F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Widespread LES/upslope snow showers continue over the Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands early Thursday before decreasing in coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Sfc high pressure ridge will build into western PA by late afternoon and put any lingering -shsn to bed by Thursday night...leading to dry conditions later Thursday night. Nicely channeled northwest flow will again produce gusty winds throughout the day. Thursday will be the coldest day of the week with max temps ranging from the lower 20s north to the mid to upper 30s southeast...with apparent temps ranging from 10-25F Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There seems to be a model consensus for the location of an upper level low that should be situated over Nova Scotia. This system should continue to pull northward. This will allow for a building high that, from the latest mid range models, should be dominating the upper mid west and southern central Canada. This high should weaken as its eastward prorogation is dampened by the quasi stationary low in the east. This will mean locally that the near normal temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning will trend warmer Friday and into next week. A fairly dry period with the next chance for significant precipitation next week and the ensembles of the long term models have divergent solutions. The big story is the warm air advection next weened into next week. Max temperatures are progged to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal Saturday into mid next week. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A deep storm developing off the east coast will keep gusty winds across the region tonight into Thursday. Snow showers will be across the mountains, with restrictions, mainly at JST and BFD. MVFR cigs will be possible at AOO and UNV at times tonight. The snow showers will slowly taper off later on Thursday, as the flow becomes less cyclonic and warming aloft occurs. Temperatures will moderate by the end of the week into next week, as high pressure moves off the east coast. VFR conditions will return to the area by Friday. Outlook... Fri and Sat...No sig wx expected. Sun and Mon...Mainly VFR conditions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for PAZ004. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for PAZ033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/DeVoir NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Ceru AVIATION...Martin

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