Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCTP 241958
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
358 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will
move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and
more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible
each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first
part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive
for Memorial Day.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Mostly sunny skies with a northwest wind will persist into early
this evening. Temperatures have reached into the 80s in many
locations in southeastern Pennsylvania. Day 1 of many to come over
the next 5-7 days.
Low-level, but mainly flat fair weather cumulus abound. Radar
implied perhaps a lone shower over eastern Schuylkill county but
otherwise quite afternoon.
This evening the winds and cumulus clouds should quickly
dissipate. A good evening to be spinning about.
Light winds and clear skies should provide for another cool
overnight. Overnight lows mainly in the 50s and upper 40s in
cooler spots of the western mountains.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday should be a near picture perfect summer day. Mostly
sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures mainly in the upper 70s
It will not be as cool overnight Wednesday into Thursday but
should still be comfortable. But the humid will be beginning it`s
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended guidance continues to show a strong ridge over the
mid Atlantic and the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This
will bring the arrival of the first extended period of summer-
like temperatures and humidity.
By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad WSW flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. However the strong ridge should provide enough subsidence
to keep any convection at bay Thursday and Friday. The GFS is
very aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the
eastern U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. However
given the southerly flow of moisture, the warmer temperatures and
the possibility of a mid level trough advecting through, Saturday
should have a decent chance for some afternoon convection. The
trend is for the ridge to break down late in the weekend and for
cooler air to move into the region early next week. This could
bring temperatures to slightly below normal.
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Updated for 18Z package...Second verse same as the first....Mostly
clear skies with west northwest winds. Some gusty winds in spots
this afternoon. Winds are gusty in the west and picking up in the
southeast. Winds should diminish early this evening.
Should be VFR all around. There is a slight chance of some very
isolated showers in extreme eastern portions of the region this
afternoon. Most, if not all the showers should stay well to our
Overnight VFR will prevail with some patch MVFR in some areas of
fog in the valleys of the southeast.
We are looking at a long stretch of relatively warm dry weather.
Wed...No sig wx expected.
Thu-Fri...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.
Sat...perhaps some overnight patchy fog or haze