Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170225 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1025 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... As high pressure drifts east, an approaching frontal system will bring a return to more humid weather with a chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday. The front will push east of the region by Tuesday with drier and warm weather for much of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Moisture return from the Ohio Valley and eastern GLAKS in progress, as evidenced by sct convection firing along Lake Erie and over central and eastern Ohio. Most of this initial activity is dying as it moves away from the warmer lakes late this evening, but clouds will continue to increase overnight from west to east with southwest return flow increasing ahead of next weather system. Still think organized showers will move into my NW zones by the 08-10z time frame...perhaps a rogue sprinkle before then. Mins will range from the upper 50s northwest to the upper 60s southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Frontal boundary pushes through region with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms pushing from west to east throughout the day. SPC has ne sliver of cwa in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms with a marginal risk for most of the area. Cannot rule out a few supercells or stronger storms as a line develops and tracks over northeast portions of central PA (along and east of an IPT-MDT line). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Quieter weather returns by Monday night, though will still have low pops for the evening hours. A trough should be moving east of the area very early in the long range period. However, the timing is slightly in question for when to make the forecast mostly dry. Will just allow for some sct convection, mainly in the east, on Tuesday. The upper flow is characterized by a persistent WNW flow due to weak troughing over ern Canada and a flat, broad ridge over the Srn/SErn states through almost the entire period. This puts the region at risk for some convection nearly every day - mainly from either diurnal convection or dying MCss. But, the mean steering current lends itself to just slightly below normal POPs on the whole. The driest time in the extended appears to be Tues PM - Wed PM. A decent trough moves in/through around Thursday/Night periods and have made POPs inch into the 60s in the NW, but held them in CHCs everywhere else. The first half of the weekend (Fri/Sat) could be dry, but low CHC POPs still probably the best bet then with the timing of individual MCSs and short waves a folly at this range in such a fast, almost zonal, flow. Consensus forecast then increases POPs again later in the weekend. The PWATs never really get too far from normals. The 8H temps also waggle only 2-4C through the period - hanging in the 15-18C range. The upper ridge to the south should help us to stay at or above normal temps through the long range. Thus, maxes should run mainly u80s-l90s in the SE and u70s-l80s in the NW. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR through tonight regionwide. An approaching frontal system to our northwest will bring an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms into the northwest later tonight and areawide Monday. .OUTLOOK... Mon...Cig restrictions NW in SHRA/TSRA. Sct TSRA impacts elsewhere. Tue...Sct tsra impacts poss east. Wed...No sig wx. Thur...Sct tsra impacts poss. Fri...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Dangelo AVIATION...Ross

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