Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270943 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 543 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 09Z SHOWS A DWINDLING BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING WESTERN PA IN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS. EXPECT THE WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...AS BLYR CONTINUES TO COOL/STABILIZE. LATEST HRRR/NAM INDICATE SCT SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU BTWN 09Z-12Z...THEN THE CENTRAL MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. OF GREATEST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE EXPECTED REGENERATION OF TSRA ALONG FRONT AS IT ENTER THE SUSQ VALLEY THIS AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. GEFS/SREF MEAN CAPES PEAK ARND 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES THIS AFTN. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH 6KM WIND FIELDS ARND 40KTS COULD SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX DURING THE AFTN HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA RUNS ROUGHLY EAST OF KIPT AND KHGR. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF RAIN NEEDED TO BREAK US OUT OF THE RECENT DRY SPELL. CONSALL MDL BLENDED QPF SUGGESTS AVG RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM SPOTTY AMTS OF JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS...TO ARND A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HIGHER RES...CONVECTION ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE LOCAL AMTS ARND AN INCH FROM TSRA THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. MCLDY SKIES WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT CONSALL STILL SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS BTWN THE U70S-L80S...SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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SOUTHERLY LL JET AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHEST PWATS/INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. THUS...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW PA COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHRA LATE TONIGHT OVR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AN POSSIBLE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN PA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR AND LESS HUMID CONDS...AS NW FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT ADVECTS A LOWER PWAT AIR MASS INTO PA. UNDER MSUNNY SKIES...ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS FROM THE U70S NW MTNS...TO THE M/U80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY THU/THU NIGHT...MED RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNALS A RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WX FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH 00Z GEFS SHOWING ANOMALOUS 500MB HGTS AND SFC PRES OFF THE E COAST. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW AN INCREASINGLY HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PM CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA COMES LATE SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. SOME MDL TIMING ISSUES WITH HOW FAST COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. HOWEVER...FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FROM ALL MDL DATA THAT THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF JUNE /MON AND TUE/ WILL BE COOL AND PERHAPS SHOWERY...WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA AND POTENTIAL OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. RADAR CONTINUES TO BE QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 04Z...THOUGH SOME CONVECTION BEGINNING TO EDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/PA BORDER INTO W PA. MAJORITY OF CWA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FROM KBFD-KJST AFTER 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE RULE SO FAR /EXCEPT AT KIPT WHERE RAIN FELL LATE TUE AFTERNOON/ BUT AS SUNRISE APPROACHES AND MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP A BIT...EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBY TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF CWA. SREF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS /AND EVEN NAM MOS HINTS/ THAT THE LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER INTO LATE MORNING FROM KIPT-KMDT BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR...MID MORNING ELSEWHERE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS PEAK ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA BETWEEN 12-18Z...AND SLIDE EASTWARD AFTER 16Z. OUTLOOK... WED...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. THU-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD P.M. TSTMS. SAT...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD FROPA. SUN...MVFR CIGS POSS NW. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR IN SCT SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR

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