Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 201835 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 235 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL FILL IN AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE THEN RE-FORM JUST OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SFC LOW OVER LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO NWRN OH AT 18Z. LOCALLY...STILL LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR BUT SO FAR NO OBS HAVE HELD ANY PRECIP. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET DEEPER THIS EVENING AND SHOWERS SHOULD START BY 00Z IN THE FAR NW WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SE AND A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN PER THE LATEST RAP/NAM. SFC LOW FILLS/BROADENS AND THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT BY 06Z AND BY 12Z...THE DOLDRUMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE AREA...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN MOST PLACES NW OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL CONTINUE ON WITH CURRENT CATG POPS IN THE NWRN HALF AND CHCS IN THE SE HALF. TEMPS SHOULD STAY VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND INITIALLY SRLY WIND. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE SMALLEST OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...AND PLAY THE COOL AND STABLE CARD. DIURNAL RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST PLACES...AND KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS. 8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS DOMINANT AT THE LONGEST OF RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ONLY SLOWLY AS MOISTURE WORKS DOWN FROM ABOVE IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD BUT SHALLOW SFC LOW. THE LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT AND SLIDE TO THE EAST THEN RE-FORM/DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH CURRENTLY WILL LIGHTEN AND GO PRETTY MUCH CALM AS THE LOW WASHES OUT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WEST AND THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SEEMS LIKE A SURE BET TO LOWER THE CIGS AT BFD AND JST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED THERE AND IFR MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND LINGER FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT IPT/LNS/MDT THIS EVENING...THEY SHOULD STAY GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SFC LOW HANGS OUT JUST OFF THE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...CLOUDY AND DAMP/SHOWERY WEATHER AND SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NE AND W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SAT...VFR/NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...DANGELO AVIATION...DANGELO

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