Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 311928 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MOST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE. TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE. TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. OUTLOOK... MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS. TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS. WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. FRI...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR NEAR TERM...RXR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...RXR

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