Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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382 FXUS61 KCTP 041641 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 815 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE THE NEAR TERM CONCERN TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THUR LOOKS DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA - BUT THE LOW CLOUDS UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL HOLD ON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ZONAL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR NEXT WEEKEND AS A SHALLOWER TROUGH SKIRTS THE NEW YORK...PA BORDER NEXT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE THE TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEST TEST TEST && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FLYING CONDITIONS IMPROVING NICELY ACROSS THE EAST BUT RAIN WILL LINGER INVOF KLNS THROUGH 00Z. OUTLOOK... FRI-MON...NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... RAIN IS ALMOST OVER ACROSS THE CWA...BUT OF COURSE OVER THE FAR SE WHERE IT COULD LINGER THRU MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY END BY 8-9PM. THE TOTALS SO FAR ARE GENERALLY 0.75-1.25 INCHES. SNOW MELT IS ALWAYS A TRICKY THING - AS IT IS TOUGH TO MODEL THE SWE OF THE SNOW PACK...AND TAKE A GOOD TRY AT ESTIMATING HOW MUCH OF THE MELT WATER WILL REACH THE WATERWAYS. HOWEVER...ALL CURRENT DATA IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE QPF AND ASSUMPTIONS PUT INTO THE RIVER MDLS THIS AM AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SOLID FORECAST. MANY TRIBUTARY POINTS IN THE LOWER SUSQ AND SOME IN THE JUNIATA BASIN WILL GET ABOVE CAUTION STAGES BUT HOLD JUST UNDER THE RESPECTIVE MINOR FLOOD STAGES AT EACH POINT. SMALL STREAM FLOODING HAS BEEN A NON- FACTOR SO FAR AS MOST STREAMS ARE STILL WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS ON AREA GAGES. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ025>028-034>036- 056-057-059-063>066. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ025>028- 034>036-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...DANGELO HYDROLOGY...

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